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11-02-2012, 05:28 PM
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#841
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2004
Location: New Hampshire
Posts: 14,486
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by thaskalos
Something tells me that, come Wednesday, this place will be a ghost town.
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Either way I will be here big time, count on it.
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11-02-2012, 05:31 PM
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#842
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,766
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I am going back to Rockingham next year, because that is where it all began!
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11-02-2012, 07:56 PM
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#843
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tmrpots
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 2,285
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Quote:
Originally Posted by barn32
Obama is a lock.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bigmack
Promise you'll be back in a week so we can get a good laugh at your expense.  |
I'm not going anywhere. In fact, I'll go it one further. I predict Obama will win Virginia and Florida! (Even though he doesn't need them.)
So there you go. If Obama wins (a sure thing) but loses either/or both Virginia and Florida you can have your laugh anyway. (See how nice I am. I gave you an out.)
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11-02-2012, 09:22 PM
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#844
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2011
Posts: 2,357
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Jake
This pretty well sums up everything that I have been trying to say, albeit often poorly, this whole thread. I think Nate Silver, despite all his critics here, has this nailed down tightly. The Prediction markets are reacting in response to the same conclusions, given the time decay now.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...te/#more-37035
Nov. 1: The Simple Case for Saying Obama Is the Favorite
Jake |
Silver has a good track record on predictions. I think he is a little too pro-Obama. Maybe an eastern bias. He says Obama has an 81% chance of being reelected. I would go 60-40.
__________________
There are more things in Heaven and Earth Horatio, than are dreamed of in your philosophy.
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11-02-2012, 09:33 PM
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#845
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Bird Rock
Posts: 16,697
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by maddog42
Silver has a good track record on predictions.
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Can someone refresh me on this STERLING political prognostication record from fellow UC alumnus, 34 year old, Nate Silver?
Don't tell me, the less fortunate in the brain area among us, put much stock in Mr. "HiHo" Silver?
Gamblers playing politics.  Now I know why I've enjoyed these last few months the mostest of earl.
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11-02-2012, 09:40 PM
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#846
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 14,569
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bigmack
Can someone refresh me on this STERLING political prognostication record from fellow UC alumnus, 34 year old, Nate Silver?
Don't tell me, the less fortunate in the brain area among us, put much stock in Mr. "HiHo" Silver?
Gamblers playing politics. Now I know why I've enjoyed these last few months the mostest of earl. |
Yeah, it's gonna come to the "cold cash" versus the "hot air" believers.
__________________
Want to know what's wrong with this country?
Here it is, in a nutshell: Millions of people are
pinning their hopes on a man who has every
chance of returning to the WH, assuming that
he can manage to stay out of prison. Think about it.
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11-02-2012, 09:43 PM
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#847
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 12,402
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bigmack
Can someone refresh me on this STERLING political prognostication record from fellow UC alumnus, 34 year old, Nate Silver?
Don't tell me, the less fortunate in the brain area among us, put much stock in Mr. "HiHo" Silver?
Gamblers playing politics. Now I know why I've enjoyed these last few months the mostest of earl. |
He is a good gambler. He declared Obama as four times as likely to win as Romney and then tried to get Scarborough to take even money in a $1,000 wager in which Silver was backing his own heavy favorite.
__________________
"You make me feel like I am fun again."
-Robert James Smith, 1989
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11-02-2012, 10:08 PM
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#848
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: Worst Coast
Posts: 1,538
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President Obama Will Win---
As I said before, several months ago, as long as the stock market holds up
it tells me that the mood of the people is positive. The incumbents will win.
If you own any type of assets, I'd be going to cash or equivalents. Deflation
will be replacing economist's talk about inflation. A lot of people will get fooled
again just as they were fooled about the real estate and 'dot.com' bubbles. I
sincerely hope you don't get caught in the next economic crash. The FED will
be unable to prevent what's looming on the horizon. Europe is where the last
depression started so it's not surprising that history may repeat itself.
__________________
Fuel Shortage? Burn Dummies!
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11-02-2012, 10:10 PM
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#849
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Bird Rock
Posts: 16,697
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by johnhannibalsmith
He is a good gambler. He declared Obama as four times as likely to win as Romney and then tried to get Scarborough to take even money in a $1,000 wager in which Silver was backing his own heavy favorite.
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Ah HAH! My little plan of ferreting out who watched Morning Schmoe worked. You busted.
It's $2K. Don't tell me the most informed dude of all time (moi) 
...Has to fact check yo'ass?
[YT="Cup o' Mud"]caF5hc9Fj-I[/YT]
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11-02-2012, 10:21 PM
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#850
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2001
Posts: 508
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No, I think you will find everyone will revisit here at least one more time. Otherwise, the ribbing is likely to permeate other threads for quite a while. Given the current political climate, I think the cherry picking and selective parsing here dovetailed perfectly with the national debate in this election. If the "noise" level was a bit snarly at times, the real "signal" on both side was worth reading. If it forces you to think, then it's a good argument.
Jake
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11-02-2012, 10:59 PM
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#851
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 12,402
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bigmack
...(I know all...)...
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.@JoeNBC: If you think it's a toss-up, let's bet. If Obama wins, you donate $1,000 to the American Red Cross. If Romney wins, I do. Deal?
.@JoeNBC: Better idea: Let's bet $2,000./ MT @fivethirtyeight Why don't we both agree to donate $1,000 to the Red Cross right now?
Later in the day, Scarborough agreed to donate $1,000 to the Red Cross in response to a reader who offered to match the donation. Silver did not respond. Check, mate. It's both and neither.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/1...n_2056401.html
__________________
"You make me feel like I am fun again."
-Robert James Smith, 1989
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11-02-2012, 11:13 PM
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#852
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Bird Rock
Posts: 16,697
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by johnhannibalsmith
.@JoeNBC: Better idea: Let's bet $2,000./ MT @fivethirtyeight Why don't we both agree to donate $1,000 to the Red Cross right now?
Later in the day, Scarborough agreed to donate $1,000 to the Red Cross in response to a reader who offered to match the donation. Silver did not respond.[/INDENT]
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Shazzam! That's as twisted as that TogaMike who in good faith, should STILL pony up $2500 to the charity of T's choosing.
That's when the confused were ignorantly buying shot out polls.
Full of themselves for ABOUT 3 weeks. Been downhill ever since.
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11-03-2012, 03:04 AM
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#853
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2001
Posts: 508
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Wow, it is crumbling fast out there for Romney. This is starting to look like a rout for Obama. Button down the hatches, it's going to be a nasty bumpy weekend!
Jake
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11-03-2012, 05:45 AM
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#854
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Just another Facist
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Now in Houston
Posts: 52,814
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Jake
Wow, it is crumbling fast out there for Romney. This is starting to look like a rout for Obama. Button down the hatches, it's going to be a nasty bumpy weekend!
Jake
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What planet are you polling?
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11-03-2012, 09:54 AM
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#855
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,766
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by JustRalph
What planet are you polling?
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this is what makes a market!
i suggest that if anyone doesn't think the republicans are not going to win, you better put your face in front of Fox News for about 2 hours. after you finish watching it there is no way that you will ever believe a poll other than the ones that have Romney winning this election, and you will never believe the odds that bookmakers have posted up throughout the world that they have taken hundreds of millions on from anyone that can lay your money down,. i said to myself how stupid of me for not watching the fair and balanced network to get my information. they claim they have no economic motive or personal objective to present the news the way they seem fit. they claim this election is a landslide for the republican. we are all going to see with our own two eyes if they are anywhere close to being right on tuesday
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