Finding "claimed from" trainers to avoid

[Valuist]

Avoid claimees from Asmussen. I used to track his numbers and the runners were around 5% in the first race for the new barn. But that could've changed in the past 3 years or so.

[Dahoss9698]

First off claim by Asmussen

325 starters
24% winners
$ 1.76 ROI


When claimed off of Asmussen

688 starters
17% winners
$ 1.49 ROI

[Maryland Owner]

Dahoss - check out the stats for Kieron Magee in Maryland - AMAZING first off the claim win %

[Dahoss9698]

Originally Posted by Maryland Owner

Dahoss - check out the stats for Kieron Magee in Maryland - AMAZING first off the claim win %

Amazing indeed.


41 starters
39% winners
$ 3.12 ROI


When he gets claimed from

25 starters
16% winners
$ 0.70 ROI

[mountainman]

I suspect such stats would reflect an even higher incidence of regression if protection claims could somehow be filtered out.

Keep in mind as well, that not all horses that lose their mojo when claimed from high-percentage trainers were taken by low-percentage or even mediocre barns. Sharks that circle the claimbox often attempt to prey on other sharks, and somebody usually gets bloodied up. Two factors, in my opinion, compel them to do this: 1)Lots of sharp, accomplished-and thus enticing -horses run from outstanding barns. 2)Successful trainers are often too arrogant to acknowledge their own limitations.

Even so, I've often wondered why supertrainers don't claim more often from hapless, low-percentage outfits.

Envy, ego,and even conspiracy all play a role in claiming activity.

[turninforhome10]

Not to dilute this thread as it is very informative, what about the owners that are behind some of these trainers.
Wondering if any can correlate some owner data.
Midwest\Ness, Cole Jr\Wells and Beattie, are just of the top of my head.
For my money, Maggi Moss is probably one of the sharpest owners out there. Can't be the first Woman owner of the year without being really good at what you do. Her numbers with claimers in last 2 years 320-91-65-51 28% 48% 64%
Assmussen as an owner
S/CLM 247-68-38-33 27% 42% 56%
Also if there was a way to tell what conditions the trainer ran out of the horse before loosing them. Lifetime conditions, n?x, after turf season etc.
Good thread
Thanks

[Milkshaker]

"Even so, I've often wondered why supertrainers don't claim more often from hapless, low-percentage outfits."

Although the guy I have in mind is not a "supertrainer," I know one sharp conditioner who used to casually watch the feed trucks unloading at other barns. If he was planning to claim a horse, and additionally saw that the stable fed its animals the generic, cheap-ass bags of feed, he would factor that into his decision to claim (with the idea being a positive nutritional change could help move the horse up a bit).

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by Milkshaker

"Even so, I've often wondered why supertrainers don't claim more often from hapless, low-percentage outfits."

Although the guy I have in mind is not a "supertrainer," I know one sharp conditioner who used to casually watch the feed trucks unloading at other barns. If he was planning to claim a horse, and additionally saw that the stable fed its animals the generic, cheap-ass bags of feed, he would factor that into his decision to claim (with the idea being a positive nutritional change could help move the horse up a bit).

I like it.

[firstoffclaim]

Kieran has a first off claim in the 2nd at Laurel today

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by firstoffclaim

Kieran has a first off claim in the 2nd at Laurel today

It was too slow to deal with the Lake horse.

The way these things usually go is...once you notice a trainer winning and start betting, he immediately loses 10 in a row.

Not really, but it feels that way sometimes.

[lamboguy]

it sure seems like MIKE FARO has been winning a big bunch of races lately everywhere.

[Dahoss9698]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

it sure seems like MIKE FARO has been winning a big bunch of races lately everywhere.

I'm being totally genuine when I ask this, so don't take it the wrong way...but where does Mike Faro train? I've never heard of him and tried searching for him and nothing came up.

[lamboguy]

i'm sorry he trains under his wife's name PATRICIA. they have horses in new york, parx, gulfstream, and laurel.

[Dahoss9698]

Okay that makes sense...I've definitely heard of her.

[lamboguy]

she's just the name on the program, he trains in monmouth also.