Driven by Success/ Be Bullish

[toussaud]

how do you go off 1/9 as an entry in a 5 horse field and finish last and next to last. That's damn near statistically impossible.

[Ocala Mike]

Passed the race, but that's the second time in about six weeks that the outcome of a race has made me seriously question why I gamble on this sport.

The other time also involved PRETTY BOY FREUD, when he won up at the Spa at over 50/1 in a headscratcher.


Ocala Mike

[Tom]

The bad news is they finished last and next to last.
The good news is there were only 5 horses!~

Maybe the trainer is holding off for a $30,000 purse this winter.

[cj]

Originally Posted by toussaud

how do you go off 1/9 as an entry in a 5 horse field and finish last and next to last. That's damn near statistically impossible.

The bettors make mistakes, and this was a big one. I don't think the entry should have been better than about 6 to 5.

[classhandicapper]

I thought Castellano gave Be Bullish a horrible ride. Be Bullish has some speed, but he doesn't have to be on the lead. His entry mate (Driven By Success) has more speed and was outside of him to keep the pace honest or control the pace depending on what else happened.

So why not lay just off the pace and perhaps even ease off the rail since there have been so many bad rail days at Belmont lately. Instead, he winds up in a 3 way contested pace with his entry mate hung 3 wide.

With that ride IMO he was either eliminating himself by racing on a bad rail in a contested pace, eliminating his entry mate by hanging him out 3 wide in the contested pace, or possible hurting both their chances. In either case he was going faster early than he had to instead of getting a gift wrapped perfect trip just off the lead and just off the rail.

Quite honestly, other than Dominguez, IMO there isn't a rider in NY that's fully competent. When the others are winning at a good clip it's because they just happen to be riding for a hot barn and/or making lucky decisions. If this is one of the best jockey colonies in the US, I'm glad I don't bet out of town much. Lately, I find myself shaking my head 5-6 times a day. If I was paranoid, I would swear that some of the decisions I'm seeing are being made on purpose to impact the race development to favor certain horses because so many of them go against what the races look like on paper and any sort of logic if you are actually trying to win.

[classhandicapper]

Sorry about that long vent. I wasn't involved in the race, but I've been getting some horrific rides lately and felt like complaining.

[toussaud]

Originally Posted by cj

The bettors make mistakes, and this was a big one. I don't think the entry should have been better than about 6 to 5.

I mean it's one thing to get beat

but, they were both DONE before they hit the turn damn near.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

So why not lay just off the pace and perhaps even ease off the rail since there have been so many bad rail days at Belmont lately. Instead, he winds up in a 3 way contested pace with his entry mate hung 3 wide.

With that ride IMO he was either eliminating himself by racing on a bad rail in a contested pace, eliminating his entry mate by hanging him out 3 wide in the contested pace, or possible hurting both their chances. In either case he was going faster early than he had to instead of getting a gift wrapped perfect trip just off the lead and just off the rail.

in order for the above 2 paragraphs to make good sense, you have to be correct about a shit-storm of finesse factors both existing in the real world and in these jockeys decision making process.-


Here is a breakdown of the card based on paper form


BE BULLISH had his run and will not reach those heights with the current connections. I can already see that for this entry to even be EVENMONEY, the other half better be a BEAR.

now the looks like a HORRIBLE BET to me. Maybe Pletcher has this one pumped within this division (the division is noted because of his runs in open class along with Pletcher indicate a "possiblilty" that this entry halve does out-class the field.) Now this is all easy form shit so far - everything i just went over for the race, as well as questioning whether this is a QUITTER. He quits a lot for these cheap races. He seems to want his distance, his setup, his pace etc... That isn't even an even money horse in most fields the value is looking TERRIBLE unless you want to play against.
- we are still on PAPER FORM at this point, and since judging the trip here is SO IMPORTANT, we have to look at this need 2 lead bum and see if his leads are LEGIT - because a good deal of these leads look WEAK on PAPER. The fractions , the bris +- #s are pretty phoney. I would guess the Moss #s are as well. So obviously you watch the race with Be Bullish last time (since both were in it and the pace was supposedly SLOW for par-18 in that race), and you watch the General George because he weakened badly in open class in another SLOW for par (only -9, instead of -18 this time!), and wayy back to the GRAVESEND where the pace was actually honest.
You watch those replays and watch the head ons, and watch how they broke , you want to see DBS break properly like a monster (since he is the need to lead guy CARRYING the hopes of the entry)- and after you've seen this beast consistently outbreak his fields while running FAST from the gate, you watch that last race again , to see BOTH full of run at the wire.

it looks real bad for betting the entry. You are pretty much saying "i pledge allegiance to todd pletcher" if you bet this horse at less than 8/5 assuming a moderately talented field of others.

oh look- just noticed REPOLE owns the entry. I don't think this info warrants a lower fair odds, although his horses are at times heavily backed.


2-scrtch

- broke best of all so far (on paper/albany) - a weird race where a phony horse limped up late to win. have to look at this guy's recent races on tape, because he could be a pace factor compared to the modest entry's pace. since apparently changing to better hands (on paper), his numbers on paper have been better and compare favorably to this group regarding early speed and the pace-par of his competition this year.

- awful connections. he won last race somewhow in a race that had fast numbers. Have to watch that replay and see if he was staggering home, or the timer broke, otherwise whatever you have that race ranked as can be repeated, although these awful percentage trainers can be tough to invest in. Almost another vote to PASS this crapshoot unless you get great prices.


- paper form looks pretty easy with this guy - very solid- he's finishing better, probably lacks the talent to win outfront.


thats IT pretty easy to cap.
ENTRY SUCKS ESPECIALLY @ THIS PRICE

BETTING AGAINST SUCKS TOO. NO STANDOUT HERE.

PASS OR USE THE OTHER 4 IN MULT-RACE-EXOTICS.

iF you are upset that you misread the pace, looks like you missed that the 3 has probably had the best recent early pace and failed to research that.

[cj]

Originally Posted by toussaud

I mean it's one thing to get beat

but, they were both DONE before they hit the turn damn near.

True, but both looked to me to be declining in form from the running lines that made them 1 to 9. When the bottom falls out, there is no telling how far it will fall.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

in order for the above 2 paragraphs to make good sense, you have to be correct about a shit-storm of finesse factors both existing in the real world and in these jockeys decision making process.-


Here is a breakdown of the card based on paper form


BE BULLISH had his run and will not reach those heights with the current connections. I can already see that for this entry to even be EVENMONEY, the other half better be a BEAR.

now the looks like a HORRIBLE BET to me. Maybe Pletcher has this one pumped within this division (the division is noted because of his runs in open class along with Pletcher indicate a "possiblilty" that this entry halve does out-class the field.) Now this is all easy form shit so far - everything i just went over for the race, as well as questioning whether this is a QUITTER. He quits a lot for these cheap races. He seems to want his distance, his setup, his pace etc... That isn't even an even money horse in most fields the value is looking TERRIBLE unless you want to play against.
- we are still on PAPER FORM at this point, and since judging the trip here is SO IMPORTANT, we have to look at this need 2 lead bum and see if his leads are LEGIT - because a good deal of these leads look WEAK on PAPER. The fractions , the bris +- #s are pretty phoney. I would guess the Moss #s are as well. So obviously you watch the race with Be Bullish last time (since both were in it and the pace was supposedly SLOW for par-18 in that race), and you watch the General George because he weakened badly in open class in another SLOW for par (only -9, instead of -18 this time!), and wayy back to the GRAVESEND where the pace was actually honest.
You watch those replays and watch the head ons, and watch how they broke , you want to see DBS break properly like a monster (since he is the need to lead guy CARRYING the hopes of the entry)- and after you've seen this beast consistently outbreak his fields while running FAST from the gate, you watch that last race again , to see BOTH full of run at the wire.

it looks real bad for betting the entry. You are pretty much saying "i pledge allegiance to todd pletcher" if you bet this horse at less than 8/5 assuming a moderately talented field of others.

oh look- just noticed REPOLE owns the entry. I don't think this info warrants a lower fair odds, although his horses are at times heavily backed.


2-scrtch

- broke best of all so far (on paper/albany) - a weird race where a phony horse limped up late to win. have to look at this guy's recent races on tape, because he could be a pace factor compared to the modest entry's pace. since apparently changing to better hands (on paper), his numbers on paper have been better and compare favorably to this group regarding early speed and the pace-par of his competition this year.

- awful connections. he won last race somewhow in a race that had fast numbers. Have to watch that replay and see if he was staggering home, or the timer broke, otherwise whatever you have that race ranked as can be repeated, although these awful percentage trainers can be tough to invest in. Almost another vote to PASS this crapshoot unless you get great prices.


- paper form looks pretty easy with this guy - very solid- he's finishing better, probably lacks the talent to win outfront.


thats IT pretty easy to cap.
ENTRY SUCKS ESPECIALLY @ THIS PRICE

BETTING AGAINST SUCKS TOO. NO STANDOUT HERE.

PASS OR USE THE OTHER 4 IN MULT-RACE-EXOTICS.

iF you are upset that you misread the pace, looks like you missed that the 3 has probably had the best recent early pace and failed to research that.

I agree that the race was probably unbettable.

The only thing I'm upset about is that other than Dominguez, IMO there isn't another jockey in NY that can be trusted to give his mount its best chance of winning given the condition of the track, the likely development of the race, and then the actual running of the race.

These are my thoughts about the result.

1. IMO the rail was not the best path at Belmont today and speed was not all that good either (I grant that some people may not agree with that assessment because of the limited evidence)

2. The pace of the race was competitive

3. The #1 was part of a fast competitive pace while racing on the worst part of the track, didn't need to be doing either, and it made matters worse for his stablemate

4. The #1a has tended to do his best racing when he has set or stalked a comfortable pace against softer. Today he wound up 3 wide chasing a fast pace going 7F on a track that was unkind to a stamina suspect horse like him. It was probably too much for him.

While it may be a lot to ask Castellano to avoid the rail after the first race, IMO he should at least realize that Belmont has had a lot of bad rails lately. So even though nothing shocking happened in the first race (in TLG's words "it may have been situational"), the very fact that it developed "outside closer" should at least have you thinking about the track as a risk factor. I was immediately building that into my thinking for gambling purposes even though I didn't know what was going on. However, IMO getting involved in the pace early was idiotic on multiple levels. There was no excuse for that.

This race just happened to be one that triggered my venting about jockeys.

I think both horses will run better next time assuming they came out of the race without physical issues, get spotted well, and get good rides.

[firstoffclaim]

Speed was dead on the dirt today, Be Bullish was hurt by that, and DBS can't close

[David-LV]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I agree that the race was probably unbettable.

The only thing I'm upset about is that other than Dominguez, IMO there isn't another jockey in NY that can be trusted to give his mount its best chance of winning given the condition of the track, the likely development of the race, and then the actual running of the race.

These are my thoughts about the result.

1. IMO the rail was not the best path at Belmont today and speed was not all that good either (I grant that some people may not agree with that assessment because of the limited evidence)

2. The pace of the race was competitive

3. The #1 was part of a fast competitive pace while racing on the worst part of the track, didn't need to be doing either, and it made matters worse for his stablemate

4. The #1a has tended to do his best racing when he has set or stalked a comfortable pace against softer. Today he wound up 3 wide chasing a fast pace going 7F on a track that was unkind to a stamina suspect horse like him. It was probably too much for him.

While it may be a lot to ask Castellano to avoid the rail after the first race, IMO he should at least realize that Belmont has had a lot of bad rails lately. So even though nothing shocking happened in the first race (in TLG's words "it may have been situational"), the very fact that it developed "outside closer" should at least have you thinking about the track as a risk factor. I was immediately building that into my thinking for gambling purposes even though I didn't know what was going on. However, IMO getting involved in the pace early was idiotic on multiple levels. There was no excuse for that.

This race just happened to be one that triggered my venting about jockeys.

I think both horses will run better next time assuming they came out of the race without physical issues, get spotted well, and get good rides.

There once was a press conference where Eddie Arcaro was asked the question, "Does the jockey mean anything in a race?"

Eddie looked over at the reporter and gave this answer "I never won a race without a horse."

These jockeys are all great athletes but there is only so much they can do.

The Horse is the boss.

_______
David-LV

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by firstoffclaim

Speed was dead on the dirt today, Be Bullish was hurt by that, and DBS can't close

Driven by Success was hardly asked to close and he has rated and won in the past. He ran poorly today.

[sandpit]

Originally Posted by cj

The bettors make mistakes, and this was a big one. I don't think the entry should have been better than about 6 to 5.

Still pretty amazing from a statistical standpoint that even if they should have been 6-5 that one of the them didn't hit the board. I think when there's a 6-5 shot it finishes in the top three about 75% of the time, and that's just one horse. I wonder what the odds would have been if they could have run uncoupled?

[dansan]

who in the hell bets on a 1-5 horse