Great race at SA Today - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

zico20 · 01-02-2015, 12:42 PM

No, it is not a 6 horse field with a big favorite and two 50-1 bombs. I am talking about the 5th. A 10 horse MSW field with the ML favorite at 5-2. I looked this race over for 30 minutes or so. Danette, the

is dropping out of 3 graded stakes races, two of them against Take Charge Brandi. The

trained by Baffert, ridden by Berajano, is coming off a great 1st race where she missed by a nose. The

was 2nd last race, beaten as the even money shot.

These are the three I like with outside consideration to the

and

for the super. I don't like the other five but a couple of them will get some play. The

was beaten even money favorite 1st time out and is trained also by Baffert. The

just ran 4th in a stakes race but that was on the turf. The

has been bet down both career races which have both been okay but loses Bejarano here.

I may be looking at this race as it is more clear cut than most would. I think the

run 1-2 with the

third or 4th with the other two being the

. Here is a chance for me to start off the new year with a super that could pay at least 300 that could be hit a few times. If anyone handicaps this race let me know if you think Danette and Popover stand out as much to you as they do to me.

letswastemoney · 01-02-2015, 04:25 PM

I'd emphasize

Popover. This will be her second start, and horses improve in their second career start.

arw629 · 01-02-2015, 04:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zico20

No, it is not a 6 horse field with a big favorite and two 50-1 bombs. I am talking about the 5th. A 10 horse MSW field with the ML favorite at 5-2. I looked this race over for 30 minutes or so. Danette, the

is dropping out of 3 graded stakes races, two of them against Take Charge Brandi. The

trained by Baffert, ridden by Berajano, is coming off a great 1st race where she missed by a nose. The

was 2nd last race, beaten as the even money shot.

These are the three I like with outside consideration to the

and

for the super. I don't like the other five but a couple of them will get some play. The

was beaten even money favorite 1st time out and is trained also by Baffert. The

just ran 4th in a stakes race but that was on the turf. The

has been bet down both career races which have both been okay but loses Bejarano here.

I may be looking at this race as it is more clear cut than most would. I think the

run 1-2 with the

third or 4th with the other two being the

. Here is a chance for me to start off the new year with a super that could pay at least 300 that could be hit a few times. If anyone handicaps this race let me know if you think Danette and Popover stand out as much to you as they do to me.

I'm not playing this race, but the

,

, and

would be my first three to toss out...I usually agree with Jon White's ML but I think he has it way wrong here...

-ML 6-1....I wouldn't touch this one...outclassed on breeding....I'm guessing over twice the ML

-ML 6-1....could stretch out and be more effective but I would not bet to find out...guessing higher than 6-1 at post time

ML 10-1....no speed and the brisnet LP numbers are terrible as well....he might be 50-1 or higher

ML 3-1....pros-numbers fit, class drop, looks like a weaker field....cons--0 for 7....will be shorter than 3-1

ML 5-2....logical contender for the reasons you stated....shorter than 5-2

ML 12-1....bet heavy in debut and i expect more betting.....less than 12-1 ...thinking 7-2 - 6-1 range

ML12-1.....will be much higher odds post time....this one should like the stretch out but the debut at parx was just god awful

ML 5-1....this ML seems about right....the late threat if there is one

ML 8-1....bread for turf but no luck in some tricky spots....they obviously thought a lot of this one to enter in a stake last time so there could be some talent here in what appears to be a somewhat lackluster field....I would pass but the tote board will tell you if this one is live

ML 20-1...i think the ML price is right for this one....could like the stretch out but i expect an evenly ran race from this one

If anyone other than 4,5,6, or 8 win I would be shocked...the 5 would be my pick

woodtoo · 01-02-2015, 05:19 PM

The

may be outclassed and coming off a turf race.
I see Cool Move improving off last.

punch

Good Luck all

arw629 · 01-02-2015, 05:30 PM

The

was scratched in the 5th.....with 4 minutes to post in the 4th and taking a look at the double payoffs, the 5 is going to be a very very short price in the 5th

zico20 · 01-02-2015, 05:52 PM

I can't believe the

is that big a favorite. I thought 3-2 would be the final odds. The chalk exacta is right now paying 6 bucks. I guess the super won't pay 300 if the 4 favorites run 1-4.

therussmeister · 01-02-2015, 05:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

I'd emphasize

Popover. This will be her second start, and horses improve in their second career start.

Yes. Some do.

Lemon Drop Husker · 01-02-2015, 06:11 PM

The

is somewhat interesting, but it certainly looks like a 2 horse race between the

.

FocusWiz · 01-02-2015, 06:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zico20

No, it is not a 6 horse field with a big favorite and two 50-1 bombs. I am talking about the 5th. A 10 horse MSW field with the ML favorite at 5-2. I looked this race over for 30 minutes or so. Danette, the

is dropping out of 3 graded stakes races, two of them against Take Charge Brandi. The

trained by Baffert, ridden by Berajano, is coming off a great 1st race where she missed by a nose. The

was 2nd last race, beaten as the even money shot.

These are the three I like with outside consideration to the

and

for the super. I don't like the other five but a couple of them will get some play. The

was beaten even money favorite 1st time out and is trained also by Baffert. The

just ran 4th in a stakes race but that was on the turf. The

has been bet down both career races which have both been okay but loses Bejarano here.

I may be looking at this race as it is more clear cut than most would. I think the

run 1-2 with the

third or 4th with the other two being the

. Here is a chance for me to start off the new year with a super that could pay at least 300 that could be hit a few times. If anyone handicaps this race let me know if you think Danette and Popover stand out as much to you as they do to me.

Very Nice call!

RXB · 01-02-2015, 06:23 PM

The $1 exacta paid $2.70 and the $1 tri paid $7.90.

JustRalph · 01-02-2015, 06:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RXB

The $1 exacta paid $2.70 and the $1 tri paid $7.90.

What a shit payout.

I thought the

looked better than the

in the post parade. But much lighter.

RXB · 01-02-2015, 06:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JustRalph

What a shit payout.

I thought the

looked better than the

in the post parade. But much lighter.

5 is a very nicely put together animal, to my eye. Showed good early foot but then rated kindly before exploding with a tremendous final quarter. This filly seems to have a serious future in front of her.

zico20 · 01-02-2015, 06:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FocusWiz

Very Nice call!

Thank you for the compliment! What a shitty payout for the super. 86 bucks in a 9 horse field at SA. I guess lots of other people had the race figured out also. I thought the super would pay about 150 with the 4 favorites in exact order with such a big field.

Oh well, my first bet of the year is a winning one. Always nice to start out on the right foot. Had I known the super was only going to pay 86 I would have put more money into the race. I only bet 48 bucks to get the super 6 times. This was the only race I liked all day. Tomorrow there looks to be 2-3 races I will analyze.

Nitro · 01-02-2015, 09:15 PM

It was the simplest no-value race on the entire card!

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...=119345&page=1