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Old 07-13-2020, 09:20 PM   #31
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Originally Posted by depalma113 View Post
Just lock the betting 2 minutes to post and all of this goes away.
No it won't. It will be exactly the same...except it will be much easier for them to get bets in at the last second.
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Old 07-13-2020, 09:44 PM   #32
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If you were aware about the huge network of simulcast coders and decoders that are overburdened the last 2 minutes at most tracks (like the old ticker tape on the stock market) you would know that these fairly tales are mostly just that.
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Old 07-13-2020, 10:34 PM   #33
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When I worked at DRF, I was in a meeting with some MIT guys that had a technology that was looking at racing and betting pool data and automatically creating and submitting bets at a national level with no human handicapping and almost no human intervention at all. It was also self learning. As it accumulated more data it learned and adjusted its own algorithms. The team said they had an edge at both small and large tracks. The amounts they were putting through the windows sounded staggering. This wasn't even a team of handicappers using their insights and technology to create better odds lines and then submitting bets. This is was a team that flipped the on switch in the morning and then went to the beach. How do you compete with that?
Racing, IMHO will never have any credibility as long it allows that kind of betting. Should be able to bet ONLY one bet at a time, on track or ADW.

And I understand all the mechanics of it., but no one will ever convince me betting AFTER that breaks is not going on at least some percentage of the time and not being dealt with intentionally.
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Old 07-14-2020, 12:11 AM   #34
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Racing, IMHO will never have any credibility as long it allows that kind of betting. Should be able to bet ONLY one bet at a time, on track or ADW.

And I understand all the mechanics of it., but no one will ever convince me betting AFTER that breaks is not going on at least some percentage of the time and not being dealt with intentionally.
I tend to agree with Tom's comment. As an example, two horses whose pp's are similar, both with morning lines around 6/1, both mid-pack type of horses, each go into the gate at 8/1. One of them breaks well and its odds immediately drop to 7/2. The other one breaks near the back and its odds go to 10/1.

How did the computer guys know which 8/1 should be hammered a couple seconds before the gates opened, and which one should not?
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Old 07-14-2020, 12:20 AM   #35
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I tend to agree with Tom's comment. As an example, two horses whose pp's are similar, both with morning lines around 6/1, both mid-pack type of horses, each go into the gate at 8/1. One of them breaks well and its odds immediately drop to 7/2. The other one breaks near the back and its odds go to 10/1.

How did the computer guys know which 8/1 should be hammered a couple seconds before the gates opened, and which one should not?
This seems like a contrived scenario. Sorry, but you are going to have to come up with a real life example or two of this actually playing out.

One thing that's important to understand, besides your above "example" being fantastical, is that models in general favor speed horses for obvious reasons, so it's hardly surprising that the horses taking their late play often show speed.
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Old 07-14-2020, 12:24 AM   #36
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Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage View Post
No it won't. It will be exactly the same...except it will be much easier for them to get bets in at the last second.
All that would change is that instead of people thinking there is past posting, they'll now think some people get to bet after the two minute mark while others can't.
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Old 07-14-2020, 04:54 AM   #37
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Originally Posted by 46zilzal View Post
If you were aware about the huge network of simulcast coders and decoders that are overburdened the last 2 minutes at most tracks (like the old ticker tape on the stock market) you would know that these fairly tales are mostly just that.
You just said nothing.
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Old 07-14-2020, 07:33 AM   #38
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This seems like a contrived scenario. Sorry, but you are going to have to come up with a real life example or two of this actually playing out.

One thing that's important to understand, besides your above "example" being fantastical, is that models in general favor speed horses for obvious reasons, so it's hardly surprising that the horses taking their late play often show speed.
I have also witnessed the tote changing in the same type of situations as the gentleman mentioned but not so dramatic. It is odd how the odds consistently go up on chalky horses based on the first quarter and gate break when there is an issue. It’s never the other way around. There is something to all this and to just dismiss it is naive. Does anyone know if past posting has ever been investigated in the last few years?
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Old 07-14-2020, 08:25 AM   #39
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I very much doubt they have someone in the mutuels department submitting their wagers for them prior to hitting the close switch when the race starts.

They don't even need that. Also, it wouldn't be anywhere near as efficient enough for them.

These wagers are calculated at the very last possible moment...how they gonna get that info to their "mutuels mole" in time?

No...what happens is this, most likely (or some variant thereof):

These really smart people have either people working for them who watch the racing feeds or maybe they even have computers monitoring the feeds somehow...who knows at this point how advanced they've gotten...

They know exactly at what point they have enough time left to compute which horses to bet, which pools to bet, and how much to bet, create the batch file or whatever and submit the bets into whatever ADW they are using (probably their own private ADW...again I don't know for sure the exact mechanisms they are using, but it doesn't really matter).

The point is, they have everything figured out. The most basic of all of this is when to push the button to figure out the bets and have them submitted at the last second.

It's not too hard to figure out that you have X seconds remaining after X many of horses are loaded into the gate.

Do they ever get shut out? I'm guessing they probably do...nothing is perfect.

But this is as close as you're gonna get.
fwiw I never said mutuel departments were placing wagers for them, rather implied that their bets were accepted into the pools as long as they were in a betting queue or batch. Probably a contract between the track and the syndicate that all wagers in the queue accepted. Might be wrong but to prove differently would mean the tracks open up their wagering records. Show us, or someone that represents the horseplayers, what is really going on that is causing the late odd swings.

I don't believe past posting is occurring in these situations.

I do believe that a host track's betting records will show that wagers are time stamped properly as to being placed prior to, or at the very last instant, the pools being closed. Likely down to fractions of a second on the time stamp.

I also believe that if race tracks opened their pari-mutuel books or wagering records they will consistently show that most every dime of "late money" is from the same source or sources. Not only in win pools, like the one from the Keeneland race in this example, but every pool, vertical or horizontal. These guys like to cash exactas and pick 3s too.
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Old 07-14-2020, 10:03 AM   #40
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The sad part of all this is even if the answer is that these are computer-generated bets at the last second by teams that know how to optimize their wagering in each pool and it's totally above board, that's not exactly encouraging. When you know that these people are right 90% or 95% of the time, you start to wonder what the point is. And I know someone is going to say, "You need to be better" but based on handle in the last decade, it appears a lot of casual bettors decided to take a different option.

For example, I'm not exactly a sports wagering expert, but since that became legal in NJ (ahem) and I can get my yearly results quick and easy, I know I finished ahead in 2018, 2019, and I was profitable in 2020 when things shut down. And not 2 cents profitable. But I've been betting on horses for nearly 30 years, and in the past few years I feel like I have little chance to finish ahead for a season/year if I do anything other than pick and choose a single race here or there. So, maybe I just suck at handicapping, but after a while you start to wonder why you bother when there are better options out there that feel like there's a level playing field.

It gets old being a guppy against the whales.
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Old 07-14-2020, 10:30 AM   #41
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fwiw I never said mutuel departments were placing wagers for them, rather implied that their bets were accepted into the pools as long as they were in a betting queue or batch. Probably a contract between the track and the syndicate that all wagers in the queue accepted. Might be wrong but to prove differently would mean the tracks open up their wagering records. Show us, or someone that represents the horseplayers, what is really going on that is causing the late odd swings.

I don't believe past posting is occurring in these situations.

I do believe that a host track's betting records will show that wagers are time stamped properly as to being placed prior to, or at the very last instant, the pools being closed. Likely down to fractions of a second on the time stamp.

I also believe that if race tracks opened their pari-mutuel books or wagering records they will consistently show that most every dime of "late money" is from the same source or sources. Not only in win pools, like the one from the Keeneland race in this example, but every pool, vertical or horizontal. These guys like to cash exactas and pick 3s too.

100% agree with this being very close to the current situation if not spot-on. Someday it will hopefully come to light because it has ruined the game for a lot of people.
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Old 07-14-2020, 11:38 AM   #42
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The late odds dropping directly affects bettors.
They see one of two scenarios.

There is past posting
Tracks do not give shit about it and will not fix it..
Either way, the tracks ALL lack credibility.

You don't TELL your customers why a problem exists, your FIX it.

This is 2020, not 1953.
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Old 07-14-2020, 12:03 PM   #43
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Perception of the integrity of the Game.

You have a 9/2 winner and find out that it's only going to pay 9/5 when they gallop out.

Cant take that ride.
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Old 07-14-2020, 01:56 PM   #44
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fwiw I never said mutuel departments were placing wagers for them, rather implied that their bets were accepted into the pools as long as they were in a betting queue or batch. Probably a contract between the track and the syndicate that all wagers in the queue accepted.
That's not how it works, at least in my experience (working for a tote for 10+ years and working closely with a lot of CRW teams).

They do send a batch of bets as close to post as possible, and it's done through a dedicated connection to the tote. But the bets are still processed individually, usually in groups of so many at a time (depending on how many resources they've been allocated). Typical batch size is 1-2k bets.

The whole batch can be processed in a few seconds, but if the pools lock halfway through, then all the subsequent bets would be rejected. Just like you or I walking up to a window late. There's no exception to say "you submitted the batch in time, so everything goes through". Once pools lock, that's it.

That does happen, and there are also cases where an entire batch gets locked out because they send it a second too late. But it's rare, because these guys spend a lot of time and money shoring up their processes to make sure they're consistently beating the buzzer.

FWIW, as long as I was in that job, I never saw a case of actual past-posting. I'm sure people won't believe that, but whatever, we've been having the same discussion here for years, at this point you get it or you don't. But I do agree it's a huge perception problem that the industry should address...but as long as they're getting $$$ from these teams, that's their main concern.
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Old 07-14-2020, 03:42 PM   #45
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That's not how it works, at least in my experience (working for a tote for 10+ years and working closely with a lot of CRW teams).

They do send a batch of bets as close to post as possible, and it's done through a dedicated connection to the tote. But the bets are still processed individually, usually in groups of so many at a time (depending on how many resources they've been allocated). Typical batch size is 1-2k bets.

The whole batch can be processed in a few seconds, but if the pools lock halfway through, then all the subsequent bets would be rejected. Just like you or I walking up to a window late. There's no exception to say "you submitted the batch in time, so everything goes through". Once pools lock, that's it.

That does happen, and there are also cases where an entire batch gets locked out because they send it a second too late. But it's rare, because these guys spend a lot of time and money shoring up their processes to make sure they're consistently beating the buzzer.

FWIW, as long as I was in that job, I never saw a case of actual past-posting. I'm sure people won't believe that, but whatever, we've been having the same discussion here for years, at this point you get it or you don't. But I do agree it's a huge perception problem that the industry should address...but as long as they're getting $$$ from these teams, that's their main concern.
Just how much is there to gain in those last moments before the polls close? Enough to risk all that time and effort building probably thousands of dollars worth of wagers? Understand your logic but I can't buy it.
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