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Old 08-04-2020, 02:53 PM   #226
GMB@BP
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Pretty good discussion on the below podcast today about the issue.

https://inthemoneypodcast.com/player...-pat-cummings/
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Old 08-04-2020, 05:51 PM   #227
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Keep in mind that the math shown below is rough... It's something I do in my head (and every once in a while on a scrap of paper) when trying to predict where late money is likely to land.

If you really want it done quickly and accurately - I'm guessing it wouldn't be that hard for someone to code out as a VBA macro in Excel. (Imo, if you're going to do that any serious effort at calibration would probably get you something useful.)

And if anyone else has a more accurate method, feel free to jump in. (I'm not against learning new stuff.)

Ok. Let's jump in and do an example race --

These are the $2.00 will pays for the double spanning races 1 and 2 earlier today (Monday 08-03-2020) at Thistledown:

#1 $86.20
#2 $113.80
#3 $18.80
#4 $15.80
#5 $165.20
#6 $36.00
#7 $22.00


First, a description of the basic steps:

A. The first step involves calculating the cost to have singled the winner in (each of) the previous leg(s) to all of the live will pay runners in the final leg.

Let c be equal to the amount it costs to do that.

c = (7 runners) x (2.00 base wager amt)

or

c = 14


B. Next, calculate the adjusted will pay for each runner using the the following formula:

adjWillPay = (actual willpay) x (1/(1-takeout))


C. Finally, calculate estimated odds using the following formula:

est_odds = (adjWillPay/cost)




Next, let's perform each of the steps:

Step #1. cost = (7 runners in final leg) x ($2.00 base wager amt)

or cost = 14


Step #2. Calculate the adjusted will pays for each of the live will pay runners using 0.225 as the takeout

Let's do the right hand side of the adjWillPay formula first because it's the same for each horse.

Let r=(1/(1-takeout))

Substituting the actual takeout rate of 0.225 I get r = (1/0.775) calculated as follows:

r = (1/(1-0.225))
or r = (1/0.775)

Now that we have r, we can calculate the estimated will pay for each runner using the following formula:

adjWillPay = (actual willpay) x r

#1. adjWillPay = 86.20 x (1/0.775) or adjWillPay = 111.23
#2. adjWillPay = 113.80 x (1/0.775) or adjWillPay = 146.84
#3. adjWillPay = 18.80 x (1/0.775) or adjWillPay = 24.26
#4. adjWillPay = 15.80 x (1/0.775) or adjWillPay = 20.39
#5. adjWillPay = 165.20 x (1/0.775) or adjWillPay = 213.16
#6. adjWillPay = 36.00 x (1/0.775) or adjWillPay = 46.45
#7. adjWillPay = 22.00 x (1/0.775) or adjWillPay = 28.39


Step #3. Now that we have adjusted will pays, we can calculate estimated odds for each runner using the following formula:

estOdds = (adjWillPay/c)

#1. estOdds = (111.23/14) or estOdds = 7.95
#2. eestOdds = (146.84/14) or estOdds = 10.49
#3. estOdds = (24.26/14) or estOdds = 1.73
#4. estOdds = (20.38/14) or estOdds = 1.46
#5. estOdds = (213.16/14) or estOdds = 15.23
#6. estOdds = (46.45/14) or estOdds = 3.32
#7. estOdds = (28.39/14) or estOdds = 2.03


Finally, the following table shows the estimated odds using this method vs. the final odds for each runner in the second half of the double spanning races 1 and 2 for Mon 08-03-2020:

Code:
     Est   Final
 #   Odds   Odds
-- ------ ------
#1   7.95   11-1
#2  10.49   23-1
#3   1.73    7-2
#4   1.46    1-1
#5  15.23   25-1
#6   3.32    4-1
#7   1.57    7-2

Fyi, the above method makes no attempt to account for the odds of the winner in previous legs which can and does impact the will pays.

When a short priced favorite wins the first leg of a double the will pays are often lower than normal.

Conversely, when a longshot wins the first leg of a double the will pays are often quite a bit higher than normal.

Both scenarios can cause the estimated odds using this method to vary from final odds.

The first leg of the above example race was won by a favorite that paid $4.40 to win. (Which might skew things a bit.)

However, if you look at odds rank, the rough math shown above came really close to nailing every horse in perfect order.

It missed when it predicted the #7 horse to have lower odds than the #3.

Other than that, it got the odds rank of the horses in perfect order.



-jp

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tx, sir..very much.
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Old 08-04-2020, 06:57 PM   #228
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tx, sir..very much.
You are a Formulator user. I don't know if you switched over to the new version yet, but you'll have to eventually. As someone said earlier in the thread, the new version does a projected odds estimate based on Will Pays. I don't know the algorithm, but I'm pretty sure it looks primarily at double prices. So it's doing a lot of that math for you (and probably more) behind the scenes. Take a look at it.
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Old 08-04-2020, 07:17 PM   #229
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Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
You are a Formulator user. I don't know if you switched over to the new version yet, but you'll have to eventually. As someone said earlier in the thread, the new version does a projected odds estimate based on Will Pays. I don't know the algorithm, but I'm pretty sure it looks primarily at double prices. So it's doing a lot of that math for you (and probably more) behind the scenes. Take a look at it.
Used it a few times. It seems to be accurate. If you don't want to write down DD prices, you should use it if you are win betting. From what I have heard it used DD prices plus other factors.
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Old 08-04-2020, 07:22 PM   #230
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Used it a few times. It seems to be accurate. If you don't want to write down DD prices, you should use it if you are win betting. From what I have heard it used DD prices plus other factors.
I never actually tried to figure it out, but since the projected odds seem to change, it must be some combination of the Will Pays and other current odds.
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Old 08-04-2020, 07:51 PM   #231
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Originally Posted by GMB@BP View Post
Pretty good discussion on the below podcast today about the issue.

https://inthemoneypodcast.com/player...-pat-cummings/
Thanks for the link
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Old 08-04-2020, 09:40 PM   #232
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Originally Posted by GMB@BP View Post
Pretty good discussion on the below podcast today about the issue.

https://inthemoneypodcast.com/player...-pat-cummings/
thanks for the link
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Old 08-04-2020, 11:52 PM   #233
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Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
I never actually tried to figure it out, but since the projected odds seem to change, it must be some combination of the Will Pays and other current odds.
It is, will pays and how the betting for the race is going, but it does lock in at 5 MTP.
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Old 08-05-2020, 12:19 AM   #234
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Originally Posted by GMB@BP View Post
Pretty good discussion on the below podcast today about the issue.

https://inthemoneypodcast.com/player...-pat-cummings/
Thanks for sharing this, would have missed it otherwise. Good stuff as always from Mike and Pat.
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Old 08-05-2020, 08:54 AM   #235
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Originally Posted by GMB@BP View Post
Pretty good discussion on the below podcast today about the issue.

https://inthemoneypodcast.com/player...-pat-cummings/

Key take a way at around the 1:21:40 mark, horse racing volume last 16 years raw data, down 27%, adjusted for inflation, down 49%, but when factoring the quality of the handle (fact that high volume rebate play has increased from 8% to 33 % of handle) that is equivalent in their opinion of being down about 63%(non high volume shop betting volume).

Another key takeaway if high volume rebate play is essentially at break even but accounts for 33% of volume that means the other 67% of the volume now gets to share the blended take of roughly 20%. So everyone else is basically as a group is paying 30% blended take. Of course in that 30% group you have a wide range of players ranging from profitable to small loss to average loss to huge loss. Safe to say that the group of players that lose 30% and more will likely not survive long and drop out of the game fairly quickly, which in turn explains why this game becomes increasingly difficult to beat.

Doesn't sound like a sustainable model to me, But hey let's not ruffle anyone's feathers.
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Old 08-05-2020, 09:50 AM   #236
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Another key takeaway if high volume rebate play is essentially at break even but accounts for 33% of volume that means the other 67% of the volume now gets to share the blended take of roughly 20%. So everyone else is basically as a group is paying 30% blended take.
I have similar thinking when to comes to betting against legitimate favorites.

If you eliminate some bad/false favorites, the rest of them will outperform the track take quite significantly and may even approach "break even" if you are very good at it. That means trying to find overlays betting against legitimate favorites is a rougher game than people realize.
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Old 08-05-2020, 11:01 AM   #237
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The basic business problem here is one of customer perception. If this is just a discussion of a few horse racing fans, horse racing is probably better off doing everything it can to keep the high volume bettors happy.

However, if this becomes a widespread perception about horse racing, then it is a different story. I've said this before, but the perception of race fixing completely killed Southern California harness racing, which used to be a huge business.

This of course is different than race fixing, but if the perception is that the house favors one group of bettors and enough people believe that, that can be dangerous. If a casino developed a reputation of looking the other way when certain players were cheating, it could lose all the casual players.

And the important thing, economically, is that because these high volume operations are advantage players, they will only play as long as they have an advantage. They aren't going to invest millions of dollars if they are going to lose. And that means the danger is that it all drops off at once- casual players leave the game, leaving the high volume players competing against each other and unable to profit. Then they leave too.

So racetracks have to be very careful about this sort of thing. It's a ticking time bomb in the sport.

The other thing I would say about it is that it calls into question the entire logic of interstate simulcasting. Think about this if you are a state legislator- some out of state syndicates are being permitted to poach on your local gamblers, not only taking their money but also not paying their fair share of taxes (takeout is, after all, a form of taxation) while doing it. There's a strong argument that states like California and New York and Florida simply shouldn't allow this. Not only to protect their states' residents who bet on the races, but also to protect the sport itself by defusing the time bomb.
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Old 08-05-2020, 11:33 AM   #238
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I have similar thinking when to comes to betting against legitimate favorites.

If you eliminate some bad/false favorites, the rest of them will outperform the track take quite significantly and may even approach "break even" if you are very good at it. That means trying to find overlays betting against legitimate favorites is a rougher game than people realize.
No question. In theory if these guys are betting 1/3rd of the money in the pools and are near break even pre-rebate, they aren't making a lot of mistakes. The problem of course is that joe public and them both agree that a horse has true odds of 2-1. Joe public gets no rebate they get a 10% rebate or more. Joe public has no chance of making a profit because they will do their best to assure that the horse pays about $5.50 or $5.60. They make a small profit and Joe Public loses with the exact same opinion. This happens in race after race, day after day.

The other difference is that typically when Joe Public has a different opinion then them, they will be right and Joe Public will be wrong. So if Joe has a horse at 2-1 and they have it at 3-1 and let the horse go off at 2.8-1, Joe thinks he is betting value, betting with both hands, when in fact he typically is below break even.

Factor in the fact that we don't know what the odds will be until after the bell and the deck is pretty much stacked against the average player. That is typical for gambling period, so I get why the suits don't really care. I just feel like this game could be so much more popular and do so much better if it was handled properly. But perhaps that ship has sailed. You can only kill an industry for so long before trying to revive it becomes futile.

Regarding your post, I don't know how many bad/false favorites there really are. I know when I look at my data and see horses that I make 4-1 or even 6-1 go off at 3/5, they win at a 3/5 shot rate maybe at a 4/5 shot rate, not like 4-1 or 6-1 shots. Like I said above these folks aren't betting 1/3rd of the money into the pools at near break even and making a lot of mistakes. Everything involved with beating this game is tough. But because they are getting fat rebates they are hammering horses below break even, it is hard to approach break even no matter how selective you are unless you are also getting nice rebates. Value exists often. If I line the entire card at any track in the country, I will find value in at least 2 or 3 races. Even blending my line with the public line. Whether it is actual value or perceived value is the question. Only analyzing a whole lot of data and looking at your betting results will answer it.
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Old 08-05-2020, 11:43 AM   #239
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Imo, 98% of everything being discussed in this thread can be addressed if track management and horsemen alphabet groups in states like CA, FL, KY, and NY led the way by deciding to level the playing field.

Lower the takeout for all and eliminate rebates for all.

This can't be a token takeout reduction.

Lower the takeout for all wagers to (approximately) the same net effective takeout high volume rebate players are currently paying.

Offer the same tote api to every horseplayer who wants it. Remove the speed restrictions that purposely slow text file upload offered by traditional ADWs.

Suddenly you've created a level playing field.

Everybody is paying the same net effective takeout rates.

And everybody is being offered the same technology.

Do this, and one of racing's biggest 'perception' problems suddenly goes away.

Then, market the shit out of racing as a (to borrow a phrase) a true gambling game of skill.



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Old 08-05-2020, 11:56 AM   #240
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Regarding your post, I don't know how many bad/false favorites there really are. I know when I look at my data and see horses that I make 4-1 or even 6-1 go off at 3/5, they win at a 3/5 shot rate maybe at a 4/5 shot rate, not like 4-1 or 6-1 shots.
I don't think there are a lot of really bad ones either.

Typically, when you disagree the board sharply it's because the figures you using are wrong, some insight you think you gained from an "expert's book" or by trial and error observation over the years is wrong, or there's something you are missing like a bias, trainer pattern etc..

That's kind of why I think the trick less less about trying to make a perfect odds line as it is about identifying things the public consistently does wrong and testing it with hard data. Trial and error and book learning had its day, but now you need facts, not opinions.
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