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Old 12-03-2020, 12:14 PM   #1
Andy Asaro
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Below, a video message from the TIF's Wagering & Integrity Issues Steering Committee.

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Old 12-03-2020, 02:28 PM   #2
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Excellent.

How about we start with CHEATERS WHO GET CAUGHT WILL START WITH A 5-YEAR BAN?

What? The industry couldn't do that because some stars will disappear?

Don't worry. We'll make more.

And with a policy like that in place, little by little the game will get real integrity.
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Old 12-03-2020, 04:50 PM   #3
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When he was going through his Ďwe wantí rant, there should have been a 'we want to throw another useless acronym into the alphabet soup that is American horse racingí

2:1 is going to pay 2:1 regardless if takeout is 0% vs 99%. Iím sorry that you make bad bets and canít beat the mutuel pools.

Iím still waiting for an acknowledgment from one of these organizations that the purpose of takeout is to maximize the amount taken from a pool without seeing diminishing returns. Reducing takeout isnít going to change the price of a horse going off at 2:1, itís going to have the effect of negatively impacting racingís invested customers
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Old 12-03-2020, 05:02 PM   #4
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When he was going through his Ďwe wantí rant, there should have been a 'we want to throw another useless acronym into the alphabet soup that is American horse racingí

2:1 is going to pay 2:1 regardless if takeout is 0% vs 99%. Iím sorry that you make bad bets and canít beat the mutuel pools.

Iím still waiting for an acknowledgment from one of these organizations that the purpose of takeout is to maximize the amount taken from a pool without seeing diminishing returns. Reducing takeout isnít going to change the price of a horse going off at 2:1, itís going to have the effect of negatively impacting racingís invested customers
So, therefore, if the takeout was (say) 60% the game would still be fine?

Wouldn't make any difference at all?

Game would still be exactly the same in terms of difficulty to beat?

And, were the takeout reduced to (say) 2%, it would not make the game easier to beat?
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Old 12-03-2020, 05:04 PM   #5
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Takeout or larger rebates is my number one issue, field size is 2nd. I can actually adjust for the drug cheates.
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Old 12-03-2020, 06:39 PM   #6
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So, therefore, if the takeout was (say) 60% the game would still be fine?

Wouldn't make any difference at all?

Game would still be exactly the same in terms of difficulty to beat?

And, were the takeout reduced to (say) 2%, it would not make the game easier to beat?
60% would be in the area of diminishing returns, but I defer to those that make money off those pools to decide what the optimal takeout is and with 10,000 races run a year across a myriad of markets at all hours of the day, we donít even have to take a random sample to perform the BTL and ATL testing though I think that Canterbury demonstrated via its below the line test a few years ago that lowering takeout hurt the customers it depends on to actually put on the show. That should have been enough to put an end to whiny customers and takeout, maybe theyíre hoping that time forgot that Canterburyís handle didnít show enough of a gain to justify lowering takeout

If we reduced takeout to 2%, the odds on the lower priced horses would stay the same and where you would see a variation is is on each side of the inverse belle curve when a 60:1 hits the board that used to be 55:1 because we are all guessing on the likelihood (underlay vs overlay) of a horse like that winning. They also, as has been demonstrated for over a century (forgive me if I canít remember what year it was when the guy in Pittsburgh created past performances), are the least likely to win meaning that lowering the takeout would have the following effects:

- Reduce purse accounts
- Reduce wagering opportunities as owners need to run at a purse level to rationalize the cost of the horse
- Reduce purchase prices of bloodstock due to the first two points
- Not put a single extra cent in the overwhelming majority of bettorsí pockets

So, if you want to have less owners, less trainers, less racing opportunities, less breeding programs, etc., jump on board the alphabet soup train with the conductor that canít even be bothered to comb his hair let alone articulate anything that I just did
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Old 12-03-2020, 06:56 PM   #7
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Originally Posted by The_Turf_Monster View Post
When he was going through his Ďwe wantí rant, there should have been a 'we want to throw another useless acronym into the alphabet soup that is American horse racingí

2:1 is going to pay 2:1 regardless if takeout is 0% vs 99%. Iím sorry that you make bad bets and canít beat the mutuel pools.

Iím still waiting for an acknowledgment from one of these organizations that the purpose of takeout is to maximize the amount taken from a pool without seeing diminishing returns. Reducing takeout isnít going to change the price of a horse going off at 2:1, itís going to have the effect of negatively impacting racingís invested customers
Can YOU beat the current mutuel pools? And if you can't, then...how do you know that the onerous takeout isn't what's preventing you from doing so?
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Old 12-03-2020, 11:51 PM   #8
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2:1 is going to pay 2:1 regardless if takeout is 0% vs 99%. Iím sorry that you make bad bets and canít beat the mutuel pools.
Not sure if your using hyperbole or just bad at math.

That's like saying if the Federal Govt tax rate is 0% or 99%, a $100 check is still going to be a $100 check !
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Old 12-04-2020, 03:12 AM   #9
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Not sure if your using hyperbole or just bad at math.

That's like saying if the Federal Govt tax rate is 0% or 99%, a $100 check is still going to be a $100 check !
$100 is $100

But thatís not what we are getting at here. If a favorite has an efficient rate of 2:1, thatís what itís going to be bet to unless youíre betting into an inefficient pool at some state fair meet with a WPS pool of $10k. Your smart players (where the bulk of the money comes in from) arenít going to bet it down to 9:5 because the takeout is lower and they certainly wonít pay more than 2:1 due to a lower takeout

If bettors wanted prices to rise, theyíd advocate to get ADWs out of the game. Theyíre creating a channel for a select group of players to bet at underlay prices that get them to an efficient price via the rebate

In reference to whether I beat the mutuel prices, yes, but Iím selective on what I bet. That doesnít mean that I donít bet, that means Iíll sit a race or 20 out if I donít find a legitimate overlay. I wonít cry about a stewardís decision and most importantly, I will hit an overlay hard enough at a distance and surface that I know produces for me. Iíve spent weekends at AP waiting for the overlay Iím looking for, I guess thatís a comment on the role racing secretaries across the country play in producing prices. The only state imo that consistently produces overlays in the country is the Maryland Jockey Club, and thatís only because most bettors donít read the race description to see how a higher class horse can be entered. Itís also because there arenít too many of us that can translate video images into unstructured data into a PP with accurate run ups, fractions, and then build machine learning algorithms on top of it
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Old 12-04-2020, 04:39 AM   #10
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Tweet doesn't exist anymore?
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Old 12-04-2020, 08:27 AM   #11
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Tweet doesn't exist anymore?
Looking into it. Have a feeling industry politics has something to do with it. Hope I'm wrong
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Old 12-04-2020, 08:49 AM   #12
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Looking into it. Have a feeling industry politics has something to do with it. Hope I'm wrong
I was right. Video going back up after Bill passes I'm told.
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Old 12-06-2020, 12:55 PM   #13
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