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Mohawk for Monday July 10th.
By the way these write ups are my new modus operandi. I have put an end into making lines on races. After a couple of years off and really thinking about the information I posted about in the 4800 horse database thread, I concluded that line making is not the best approach for me to attack this game. At this point I create these write ups to give myself an idea how I feel about each race so I can hopefully intelligently attack each race based off of my opinion when fresh, not in the heat of battle. There are so many different ways to attack a race(win, exacta, trifecta, superfecta, multi legs....) and I feel these write ups give me a better chance of using the proper ones to hopefully make money. I still may use the board to provide alternate information (live horses, dead horsess), but in general if I don't like a horse I am not looking to bet him because he is 4/5. If I do like a horse I am likely not tossing him because he is 25-1. If I am not sure about a horse who is well bet than I likely will respect the board a lot.
As far as posting these write ups, just trying those who are not that familiar with the sport a look at how I approach harness racing. If you have been following you have probably noticed there is plenty of value in this game and typically (today is an exception) good field sizes. It is just the challenge of determining what is truly value and what is poor handicapping. I am hoping the write ups help me better discern and learn. I really do enjoy this game so much more than thoroughbreds. Unfortunately do to time constraints it is hard for me to do this more than a couple times a week.
Race 1) 6-4-3-7. Nice effort by Military Secret last out. Looks like he
is in good form for now. 7 year old past classer earned a figure
in last that should be able to win consistently at this level. I make
him a strong top choice moving to the 6 post. Possible Single.
Cortez the Killer, good effort 2 races in a row, switches to high
percentage barn. I don’t think this horse is leaving meaning he
probably needs a hot pace to catch the top choice. Don’t suspect
that will be the case in here. If I am right about Military secret
than the ideal place to be is sitting 2nd behind him. Who will that
be tonight. Artistic Pick? Mercenary leaving from the 7 post. Or
A Boy Named Suuzz. Well in this guys bag of tricks is the ability
to leave and sit a 2 hole trip. If this is the case tonight his trip easily
can propel him to a 2nd place finish or even a win If Military Secret
doesn’t fire. His recent race figures low compared to the other
contenders so the best I can come up for him is 3rd. Mercenary
had a big effort 2 back. If he leaves and gets a similar trip he is a
huge threat. If he leaves and tucks and has to come up first over or
if he takes back it is a lot tougher road for him.
Race 2) 7-5-8-6. The 5-6-7-8 and a couple others all ran against each other
last week. For that race I thought the 7&8 were the 2 best horses
figured they would line up first and second. However Skylar left
and Macdonald (Rock and Twist) surprisingly settled on the 3 hole. Came first out and honestly raced poorly. That being said he was 1st over which can be
a legitimate excuse for a poor effort. Skylar benefited getting the 2 hole trip
closed impressively on the raise in class while Flying Art had to
settle for 2nd. The third place finisher in that race Dance Machine
got the kind of trip that works very well for him. Stayed inside
had a clear run as most in front of him elected to go outside. On the
other hand once he secured 3rd he stopped drivng so it wasn’t
even an all out 3rd and he came home in 26.3 at 31-1. The race before
he came home in 25.4 so he certainly looks to be headed in the
right direction. But this is a one run type that needs a trip. With a
trip and some kind of excessive pace he has a much better chance.
Certainly looks like a good tri/super filler at what should be a good price.
Skylar now switches to an 8% barn but obviously is razor sharp and must be respected. From the 5 hole I figure he will sit a 2 hole trip again. Tuf Cooper was 2nd over, okay trip but just finished evenly.
Race 3) Looks like a terrible value chalk on likely winner Warrawee Xalt. Two easy wins until 6/26 when thrown up against some quality trotters. Now catches a very weak field and looks likea free bingo square in the pick 5 for many. Looking for a longshot. Unbeatable Kemp I played on 6/27 and after sitting a sweet trip I though he was going to win at 43-1 only to flatten out late. Last week was stuck in the 10 post, very wide first turn used hard to tuck 4h got shuffled and then 4th over far turn and came home okay considering. Has the speed to leave and sit some kind of a trip (I assume he will end up in the 3 hole behind the 4 who I suspect will late leave and the 6). Now Climb the Pole might be something and if the tote board is telling you she is, I would not ignore it. This 3 year old was beating the likes of HpextraIce and Musling Vegas, so has every right to be a lot better than shown. Unfortuntately she had some breaking issues and then got sick. What to expect tonight, who knows. Warawee Yes is a young horse and maybe merits some respect. Stormont Mabel has speed and figures for a nice trip and has some talent. Personally I will look for a big price on Unbeatable Kemp (over 20-1) and play him some. Not enough clarity in here to lay out picks other than the likely low priced winner.
Race 4) Pass
Race 5) Picking the race 4-7-6-5-1-8. Have no clue why Major Hill was 4/5 in his last start. Hope they bet him good again. He was going great guns a number of weeks ago but this horse has a long history on this bottom class level or at smaller tracks. When he shows me he is back in form I will worry about him. Fabrizio is the obvious choice as he has been chasing really nice horses for weeks. Sometimes at this bottom class level a horse like him can just dominate on a big class drop. That being said I think this is a pretty strong field for this level. Outlawaceof spades has also been facing solid company in his last 6 starts and earning nice figures. Speed for a good trip and going to give him a slight nod. Going fast who is typically a fixture at these lower levels seems on the improve, putting in a 53.4 first half 2 back and closing in 26.4 against a solid nw 5k field last out to earn an impressive 3rd (outclosing both Pirate Hanover and Mr. Beast). Has speed to shoot to the top if Jameson elects to use it and figures for another forwardly placed trip.
Race 6) Pass
Race 7) Going to pass this race. Is Southwind Coors much the best horse. Undoubtedly. But you have a closer (perhaps he leaves, perhaps he tucks perhaps he takes back to last) from the 7 hole, off a 3 week layoff and coming off just winning a 250,000 stakes race. When you have a horse like this winning a nw of 4 race is not high on your priority list. Not interested in betting him or trying to beat him. Do not have a lot of clarity on the rest of the field so no reason to get involved here. Bellas Cavalla obviously has some talnet. Last Page first is on the improive. Southwind Domino has shown he is pretly close to Bella Cavalla. Saudra has a right to improve after facing some good ones prior to the layoff.
Race 8) Another not so exciting race. 6 horse fields are not really my thing. Pace wise it looks like the 3 and 4 leave, the 1 maybe quarter moves to the top Rowlen wont leave the rail so maybe the 5 comes 1st over or not, Midnight Miracle needd to be sent early if she wants any legitimate chance to win. My guess is Mischevious Rose wins this as and odds on favorite again, and whoever ends up in the pocket behind her when she finally clears to the top will complete the exacta. Picking the race 1-4-3.
Race 9) Top billing to Highlandbeachlover. Been chasing much better horses. Was 4/5 against better 6/24 and ran okay. Broke when overland last start uncharacteristically. I believe pace wise, Seriously Hanover leaves, Highlandbeachlover leaves they sit 1-2 around the track and that is your exacta. Armor Seelster, solid figures but I just don’t like this horse right now. He just hasn’t impressed me in quite a while. I think he might get up for 3rd, possibly 2nd with a great trip, but not with my money on him. Pirate Hanover, showed he can leave 2 back but I think if he does he ends up tucking in the 3 or 4 hole and probably ends up first over. Pl Octavius races super gamely 6/19 then had not shot from 8 hole in last. Now back inside where he can perhaps get a 2nd over trip, certainly a trifecta/superfecta contender. Let’s Tie one on is sort of the mystery horse. Cullen barn has been fairly hot over the last couple of weeks, and he has that pattern that has brought a lot of horses to the winners circle in recent weeks (off form, send them to the smaller tracks to build their confidence) then bring them back to Mohawk and they are a new horse. If a lot of money shows up on tote I would respect it. Acapulco Sunburn and Dr Joe have decent figures but beat much weaker fields in their recent wins. Seriously Hanover woke up on the Class drop last out with a nice, not great effort. Don’t think it is good enough to beat Highlandbeachlover, but I think he is the trip horse. Picking the race 7-3-5-8-2-6.
Race 10) On numbers Macallan is really standout in here. I suspect he will be very low priced and be very tough to beat, unless his driver (young is usually pretty decent) does something really stupid. All Wrapped up continues to improve each race and looks clearly best of the rest. Simcoe Seelster is a tough read. I see nothing on his recent form that appeals to me. That being said that was an impressive ¼ move in his last and he was in front turning for home before breaking stride. Now way to tell how much horse he had left. The brush to the top was effective enough to convince me he is 3rd likeliest winner in here. Fleurie has a sweet trip in last and to no avail. It was his 1st race in a month so perhaps improvement is possible. This is a very weak field and the rest of the field belongs in a nw 4000 last 5 starts not this class.
Picking the race 9-1-3-4.
Good luck out there.
Last edited by Poindexter; 07-10-2023 at 09:18 AM.
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