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12-26-2015, 09:34 PM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: New York
Posts: 1,454
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True or false
If you kept a record of 1000 bets you would be money ahead ( ROI wise), with win only rather then win/place. Trying to prove this out to non- believers has there been any long term statistical studies to validate this?
Thanks in advance gents.
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12-26-2015, 11:08 PM
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#2
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,887
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Can't be proven because you can't know what the bets are.
I bet 1W3P on 9-2 or over and my records show I definitely do better than just win.
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12-27-2015, 12:26 AM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 588
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Win only in large samples will destroy win/place.
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12-27-2015, 09:25 AM
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#4
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,887
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Been doing this for years now.
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12-27-2015, 10:01 AM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,764
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by JJMartin
Win only in large samples will destroy win/place.
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there is a real good reason for that, the breakage on place tickets tend to be a lot more percentage wise than win tickets. with nickle breakage its not that dramatic, Tom could be playing Canadian and New York tracks.
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12-27-2015, 10:19 AM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 4,284
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by JJMartin
Win only in large samples will destroy win/place.
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100% correct
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"Just because she's a hitter and a thief doesn't mean she's not a good woman in all the other places" Mayrose Prizzi
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12-27-2015, 10:31 AM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 1,735
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In my experience win will outperform win/place in ROI. But I have found that profits can be better with win/place because you can risk more of your bankroll due to shorter losing streaks.
That's assuming you have a positive ROI. If you don't, then I guess that you shouldn't be betting.
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The ponies run, the girls are young
The odds are there to beat
You win a while, and then it's done
Your little winning streak
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12-27-2015, 11:02 AM
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#8
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Out-of-town Jasper
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 2,364
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Tom
Can't be proven because you can't know what the bets are.
I bet 1W3P on 9-2 or over and my records show I definitely do better than just win.
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Do you make more money, or do better ROI wise as the OP stated?
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“If you want to outwit the devil, it is extremely important that you don't give him advanced notice."
~Alan Watts
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12-27-2015, 11:20 AM
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#9
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Veteran
Join Date: Sep 2014
Posts: 2,053
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by JJMartin
Win only in large samples will destroy win/place.
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Doesn't this depend on who's handicapping.. what if you pick a lot of 2nd place horses
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12-27-2015, 11:44 AM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 4,285
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by no breathalyzer
Doesn't this depend on who's handicapping.. what if you pick a lot of 2nd place horses
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Then you should scrap win betting altogether. Or better yet bet exactas keying the second place horse.
Place betting does more psychological good than financial good.
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12-27-2015, 12:18 PM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: New York
Posts: 1,454
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Logically speaking if you have a horse 4/1 or better and have a negative position against the favorite and/or second choices in the race a win/place wager seems appropriate based on the opportunity for a healthy place price if the favorite(s) run out.
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12-27-2015, 12:32 PM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Seattle
Posts: 3,943
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by AndyC
Then you should scrap win betting altogether. Or better yet bet exactas keying the second place horse.
Place betting does more psychological good than financial good.
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I bet W/P religiously, and I would have to concur with this statement 100%. It's totally a psychological thing
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12-27-2015, 12:32 PM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 4,285
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by BELMONT 6-6-09
Logically speaking if you have a horse 4/1 or better and have a negative position against the favorite and/or second choices in the race a win/place wager seems appropriate based on the opportunity for a healthy place price if the favorite(s) run out.
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Logically one would evaluate each bet independently and put their money where the greatest value lies.
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12-27-2015, 01:46 PM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,569
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Our betting must match our temperament and personality. Win-betting may indeed be the most profitable betting method ROI-wise...but our ROI isn't our main consideration when playing this game. What if we can't psychologically tolerate the long losing streaks associated with win betting...and we find it impossible to operate properly when these losing streaks make their unwelcomed appearance? In that case...the expectation of win-betting's better overall ROI isn't likely to save us. A positive long-term expectation can only come to fruition if we are able to handle the turbulence that the SHORT-TERM is sure to bring.
Our main objective in this game should be to get to know ourselves...and to adopt betting methods which are not in conflict with our temperament and personality. Betting win and place may seem like a poor choice ROI-wise...but it will smooth out many of the rough spots that the horseplayer is sure to find in his path. Consequently, he may be able to operate saner during the "dry-periods"...and win more money overall.
Many of these gambling questions do not lend themselves to "true-or-false" answers. The best answer to them usually is: "It depends".
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"Theory is knowledge that doesn't work. Practice is when everything works and you don't know why."
-- Hermann Hesse
Last edited by thaskalos; 12-27-2015 at 01:48 PM.
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12-27-2015, 03:16 PM
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#15
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,887
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I make more money. ROI is for accountants. You spend money.
I bet that way because my records tell me that is the way to bet. Horses I bet on 5-1 or more place more than twice as often as they win.
Under 9-2 I bet win.
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