Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Handicapping Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 02-05-2006, 04:57 PM   #1
46zilzal
velocitician
 
46zilzal's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 26,248
what the hell happened at the Big A

a MULTI-YEAR bias disappeared like a escaped convict overnight from Friday to Saturday. I have tracked this course EVERY CARD for 4 years now and it not only disappeared, but it changed POLARITY.

Ken. You know all about track maintenance, do you think they dug it up or brought in a lot of soil?

input appreciated
46zilzal is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-05-2006, 06:12 PM   #2
Tom
The Voice of Reason!
 
Tom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,465
What changed?

I only palyed on erace yesterday - the first, and caught nice front end winner at 7-1. Are closers now winning?
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
Tom is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-05-2006, 06:15 PM   #3
the little guy
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 7,324
Personally I think the supposed speed bias on the inner has been basically a fantasy for the past ten years, however, this weekend has been ridiculous. It is almost impossible to pass.
the little guy is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-05-2006, 06:18 PM   #4
Tee
Registered User
 
Tee's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Posts: 16,817
To me it looks like a nice balance as to where the winners were coming from for the past 3 days.

Maybe it's just me
__________________
When you have to make a choice and don't make it, that is in itself a choice.
Tee is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-05-2006, 06:20 PM   #5
the little guy
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 7,324
I think if you dissect this weekend's races you will see it was a great advantage to being on the lead.
the little guy is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-05-2006, 06:21 PM   #6
shanta
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 1,988
Quote:
Originally Posted by the little guy
Personally I think the supposed speed bias on the inner has been basically a fantasy for the past ten years, however, this weekend has been ridiculous. It is almost impossible to pass.
Agree 100%.

Believe it or not the thread starter is complaining because "early" was NOT good on Saturday. Lookin at result charts thats kinda hard to grasp ha? lol

his definition of early is energy based rather than "positional" so thats the rub.

you want to see an early biased track in EVERY sense of the word??
PENN NATIONAL

Richie
shanta is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-05-2006, 06:23 PM   #7
kenwoodallpromos
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Posts: 9,569
A

Track kept its small inside post bias; total 1 workout Friday; very slow works earlier, sealed track works Saturday; Saturday results say "sealed" for the first several races, reflected in several races.
Since I claim NY to have among the best mainenance crews, even for off-tracks, and they try to make it safe and fair, I say they were working hard to keep the track raceable and had no choice but to super-seal it. The best guess of whoever was writing the track condition during the day must have assumed the track would lose it seal (speed) during the day. But it did not, even though "sealed" is not listed in early races.
Sand- I am not aware of how dumping extra sand on the track during wet weather would be easy to do while racing every day, or how a deeper track would speed it up like crazy. Steam rolling the track would do that!
__________________
http://www.myspace.com/531434141
kenwoodallpromos is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-05-2006, 10:51 PM   #8
46zilzal
velocitician
 
46zilzal's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 26,248
Quote:
Originally Posted by kenwoodallpromos
T
Sand- I am not aware of how dumping extra sand on the track during wet weather would be easy to do while racing every day, or how a deeper track would speed it up like crazy. Steam rolling the track would do that!
That's what I am saying: it slowed tremendously
46zilzal is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-05-2006, 11:10 PM   #9
46zilzal
velocitician
 
46zilzal's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 26,248
Quote:
Originally Posted by shanta
Believe it or not the thread starter is complaining because "early" was NOT good on Saturday.

his definition of early is energy based rather than "positional" so thats the rub.
I continue to be amazed at the clairvoyants of the world. Since when does asking an opinion qualify as complaining? One learns to adapt parimutually, I was just wondering at the cause that sprinters with multiple, significantly minus e/l's are winning for the FIRST TIME IN FOUR YEARS. Wouldn't that send up a red flag to you and your records? This was an observation noted by no less than four other people who use the same records as myself and reported independently. It is not an insignificant shift.
46zilzal is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-05-2006, 11:54 PM   #10
nomadpat
Registered User
 
nomadpat's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Denver, CO
Posts: 236
46, why didn't you ask that question originally? How in the world are people supposed to know that you were wondering "I was just wondering at the cause that sprinters with multiple, significantly minus e/l's are winning for the FIRST TIME IN FOUR YEARS." if you didn't state that?
nomadpat is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-06-2006, 12:03 AM   #11
toetoe
Veteran
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 11,435
Zilz,

That's a great take on it, and I'm glad to get the heads-up. I didn't see much as my computer crashed about a hundred times. I was lucky to get in my losing pick-four entry. Did I mention I hated the Atreo Persaud horse?

One thing I see, which may or may not be parimutuelly useful, is that on some days, pressers take their best crack but, unlike "average" days, have little shot, whereas Silky Sullivan types have at least a prayer, like that John Morrison horse in the nightcap.
toetoe is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-06-2006, 02:00 AM   #12
the little guy
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 7,324
You mean the John Morrison horse in the nightcap that Jan Rushton said got a brief freshening after breaking its maiden in November?


November 2003.
the little guy is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-06-2006, 02:17 AM   #13
toetoe
Veteran
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 11,435
Le Petit Guy,

Let's not Rushton judgement. I pray you're as fond of Suzy Walder (Waldman?) as I am. The sports screamers hate her, but as the greatest hetero fan of musical theatre, I gotta love her, if I may Garagiolize. I gotta believe, Tony, that it could be much, much worse. How? Two words --- Joanne Jones.
toetoe is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-06-2006, 08:30 AM   #14
shanta
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 1,988
Quote:
Originally Posted by nomadpat
46, why didn't you ask that question originally? How in the world are people supposed to know that you were wondering "I was just wondering at the cause that sprinters with multiple, significantly minus e/l's are winning for the FIRST TIME IN FOUR YEARS." if you didn't state that?
you know only IF you have magical powers

Richie
shanta is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-06-2006, 09:13 AM   #15
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
cj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
Just so I can understand, what would a 20 mile per hour wind either up or down the backstretch do to these calculations? How is this adjusted for with energy or median?

For example, same horse might run this, and actually be the exact same performance:

+ Wind :45 1:10
0 Wind :46 1:10
- Wind :47 1:10

This is very common in New York. The energy numbers would be wildly different if there in no pace variant, even if the performance was very similar. How do you fix it?

Last edited by cj; 02-06-2006 at 09:15 AM.
cj is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 05:45 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.