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Old 12-27-2014, 09:59 PM   #1
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2015 Financial Predictions Contest Comments.

Please post any comments, suggestions, questions, or rude noises here.

The contest: http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=119230

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Old 12-28-2014, 07:30 AM   #2
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Sounds like fun. That said, I still would like to hear everyone's "Best Bets."
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Old 12-28-2014, 01:21 PM   #3
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I posted my own predictions as a Mendoza line for the contest. Beating me in predicting financial markets shouldn't be hard.
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Old 12-28-2014, 01:29 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by badcompany
Sounds like fun. That said, I still would like to hear everyone's "Best Bets."
I posted Gilead Science as my tiebreaker. I know there is a lot of uncertainty around their earnings but I would expect to see their multiple increase even if they hit the mid point in targets and I think they will do better than that. The reaction to express scripts news was overdone. Everyone also seems to be valuing them as if they were a 1 trick pony with nothing else in their pipeline. They have the best management in biotech. They are a buy for me.
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Old 12-28-2014, 04:26 PM   #5
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You're preaching to the choir about Gilead. It's one of my biggest holdings. I started buying it in the 40s. Got a big lump of coal from the stock for Xmas, but, I suspect the drop will be short lived.

The stock had been bouncing around 100-110 for a few months. There was certainly a good deal of buying at that level.

The drop took place at the very end of the year. So, the incentive to take the loss for tax purposes was large. I believe many investors were shaken out of their holdings.

Now, as you surely know, when you take a loss, you can't buy the stock back for 30 days or else the loss gets washed.

So, the market makers get a free ticket to run up the stock without a lot of outsider participation.

If I'm correct, the stock should have a killer January.
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Old 12-28-2014, 08:37 PM   #6
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I initiated a position on 11/25 at 99.40 and bought more on 12/23 so my cost basis on the entire position is 96.26.

It's the only non-dividend paying stock in my entire portfolio which tells you how much I like it.
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Old 12-28-2014, 09:51 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by badcompany
Now, as you surely know, when you take a loss, you can't buy the stock back for 30 days or else the loss gets washed.
I just learned something.
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Old 12-28-2014, 11:13 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by barn32
I just learned something.
http://www.sec.gov/answers/wash.htm

Wash Sales
Under Internal Revenue Service rules, you cannot deduct losses from sales or trades of stock or securities in a wash sale. A wash sale occurs when you sell or trade stock or securities at a loss and within 30 days before or after the sale you:

Buy substantially identical stock or securities,

Acquire substantially identical stock or securities in a fully taxable trade, or

Acquire a contract or option to buy substantially identical stock or securities.

For more information about wash sales, read IRS Publication 550, Investment Income and Expenses (Including Capital Gains and Losses).
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Old 12-28-2014, 11:44 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by badcompany
http://www.sec.gov/answers/wash.htm

Wash Sales

Buy substantially identical stock or securities,

Acquire substantially identical stock or securities in a fully taxable trade, or

Acquire a contract or option to buy substantially identical stock or securities.
By substantially identical, would that be on the order of selling AAPL for a loss, but immediately buying MSFT or some similar tech stock?
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Old 12-29-2014, 12:27 AM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by barn32
By substantially identical, would that be on the order of selling AAPL for a loss, but immediately buying MSFT or some similar tech stock?
From my understanding, it's the same stock. Buying MSFT would still allow you to take the loss on Apple.
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Old 12-29-2014, 04:00 PM   #11
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Originally Posted by _______
I posted Gilead Science as my tiebreaker. I know there is a lot of uncertainty around their earnings but I would expect to see their multiple increase even if they hit the mid point in targets and I think they will do better than that. The reaction to express scripts news was overdone. Everyone also seems to be valuing them as if they were a 1 trick pony with nothing else in their pipeline. They have the best management in biotech. They are a buy for me.
Oh, and here's the other reason I believe Gilead is heading higher and soon:



Gilead Sciences Is Not a Buy; It's Heading Lower on Price War: Jim Cramer

By Bret Kenwell - 12/23/14 - 11:01 AM EST

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- After plunging 14% on Monday on the news of increased competition for its hepatitis C treatment, shares of Gilead Sciences continue to decline on Tuesday, down nearly 5%. This is a "really big decline," said TheStreet's Jim Cramer, co-manager of the Action Alerts PLUS portfolio.

While analysts at Bernstein defended the company and its promising future, analysts at Deutsche Bank lowered their price target from $142 to $125, Cramer said on Tuesday CNBC's "Mad Dash" segment.


He explained that because the stock has performed so well this year, up 44% before the recent drop, there is more room to the downside. Because Express Scripts said it will only cover AbbVie's hepatitis C drug, which is cheaper, the two drug makers are now engaged in a price war.

AbbVie, an Action Alerts PLUS holding, is a "fine" company, Cramer said. But this price war will hurt margins for both AbbVie and Gilead.

When Gilead's earnings multiple continued to shrink in 2014, that was the sign that something may have been wrong, Cramer added.

With Express Scripts taking back some control in regards to pricing, it may start doing so with other leading treatments from drug makers. This is a great thing for companies like UnitedHealth Group , he said.

As for Gilead, the stock looks as if it can continue to head lower. Investors should wait for a better buying opportunity, Cramer concluded.
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Old 12-30-2014, 07:25 AM   #12
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might wanna read...

http://www.forbes.com/sites/martinso...gileads-ceo/2/
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Old 12-30-2014, 08:19 AM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sammy the sage

If he doesn't like the way management is being paid, he's welcome to sell the stock.

As a shareholder, myself, all I care about is performance. If Gilead under performs the S&P for a considerable length of time, I'm gone.


Here's how the stock has performed since I started buying it.

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Old 12-30-2014, 06:02 PM   #14
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His compensation seems to align his interests with stockholders. If the stock does well, he gets even wealthier. I'm not sure how that's a bad thing.

Other than arguing about where to set the bar to trigger stock bonuses, I don't see much to worry about. If most of his compensation was cash versus stock, then I would worry.
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Old 12-31-2014, 08:15 PM   #15
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Contest Baselines

SP 500 2058.90
MSCI 956.31
Stoxx 50 3146.43
Topix 1407.51

XLY 72.15
XLP 48.49
XLE 79.16
XLK 41.35
XLF 24.73

MMM 164.32
AXP 93.04
T 33.59
BA 129.98
CAT 91.53
CVX 112.18
CSCO 27.82
KO 42.22
DIS 94.19
DD 73.94
XOM 92.45
GE 25.27
GS 193.83
HD 104.97
IBM 160.44
INTC 36.29
JNJ 104.57
JPM 62.58
MCD 93.70
MRK 56.79
MSFT 46.45
NKE 96.15
PFE 31.15
PG 91.09
TRV 105.85
UTX 115.00
UNH 101.90
VZ 46.78
V 262.20
WMT 85.88

Tiebreakers:

SCTY 53.48
GILD 94.26
AVGO 100.59
XLS 17.53
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