Extreme Pace Handicapping: If You Doodle They Will Come

[andicap]

Its similar to what CJ does, (IMHO) but using the pace of the race and not the horse's pace.
Of course Randy's adjustment is more simplistic than CJ's is -- it's pretty straightfoward. The faster the pace the higher the horse's adjusted final figure.

Originally Posted by Tom

I'm sill trying to figure out what he is talking about where he describes how he modifies the speed ratings with the pace rating....seems to be a circular reference with undefined variables???????? I do like the product, but I couldn't make it at home.

I did order the hard copy to go with my e-book. It comes Wendesday.

BTW, HTR users can easily construct pace multipliers from the profile downloads. (or anyone with a lot of race times data)
What I did was calculate the percentage of second call times, then sort by that percentage. Find the average ( this is your multiplier) and then +/- 1 standard deviation is "normal" and beyond that is a fast pace or slow pace.
Works pretty well at Aqu, Bel, and FL.

[andicap]

Originally Posted by jonnielu

Why is that idea over the top?

jdl

well, "over the top" was the wrong terminology. Let me rephrase.
One of his few handicapping assertions that I disagree with. But I recognize track bias is sooooooo subjective and that I could be wrong.

[Tom]

Got my copy yesterday. I think Randy does a really nice job of showing how he sets up a race for analysis using his pace tools - running style, pace pictures, pace pressure gage, and pace comfort zones. I think it would be a great help to someone trying to grasp pace handicapping, and it provides a nice, orderly method for looking at a race. Lots of examples, which help make his points.

[cj]

I think it is very good. I like especially like the Optimum Pace Models.

[Tom Barrister]

I just got the book yesterday from Amazon. It's very interesting, and I would recommend it to anybody who is serious about handicapping. It's a different look on pace handicapping, and in my opinion, it's well-worth the $20.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by cnollfan

I think it's a good book, though the concepts in the first couple of chapters could have been stated more clearly. It took me a while to comprehend the "pace pressure gauge" even though it is quite simple, once I figured out what he was trying to say.

I agree. This is my second or third attempt at getting through the book. Now I have an understanding of the book, I find it one of the best match-up books that I have read.

[Trotman]

I think it's a very good book with ample examples to understand. If you're into pace handicapping it is a book you should have.

[GaryG]

Mine just came today. If Richie P says it is valuable, that is good enough for me. Looking forward to reading and studying it.

[Partsnut]

Originally Posted by RichieP

Extremely good book from an author who is a winning player and also a class act.

Richie said it all in just a few short words.
---------------------------------------

I can tell you that from my own personal experience with the book and the method, that you can win with it. I've won some contest money with it and
have shown a profit with it over an extended time frame.

I'm looking forward to the release of Randy's new pace software which will analyze 30 different pace scenarios. This software is free to subscribers.

[Robert Goren]

As you may know, I think almost all handicapping books are a waste of a tree. Giles's book is the first book I have found something I could use in it since Beyer's books back in the 1970's. The way he comes with running styles has been most useful and I have incorporated into my handicapping along with the drawing picture of the pace. I don't like Quirrin points and I use Bris's E1 numbers instead. You can take the rest of the book with a grain of salt, but the running styles and the picture of the pace is well worth taking a long look at to see if they can fit into your methods.

[raybo]

Randy Giles's work has been the largest influence on my pace analysis in the last few years. His PPG works well with Brisnet's running styles and early speed points, not so well with JCapper data as Jeff uses only a horse's "good" races in determining running styles (I prefer to use a running style that a horse "normally" exhibits, not just when it has it's best finishes, as I want to know how the race will most likely be run early, and I don't assume that each horse will run the way it does when it has a good finish).

I personally have modified the likely winning style and early points to include 20 categories of PPGs. Rather than just early or late I actually project the win contenders' running styles and early speed point ranges. Then I use that data for eliminations for win contention, along with possible pace match ups calculated from fractional velocities ranges.

Randy is very knowledgeable and a fine person, as I have communicated with him by email several times. If you are into reading horse racing books I think his book would be a "must read" for any pace conscious handicapper.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by raybo

Randy Giles's work has been the largest influence on my pace analysis in the last few years. His PPG works well with Brisnet's running styles and early speed points, not so well with JCapper data as Jeff uses only a horse's "good" races in determining running styles (I prefer to use a running style that a horse "normally" exhibits, not just when it has it's best finishes, as I want to know how the race will most likely be run early, and I don't assume that each horse will run the way it does when it has a good finish).

I personally have modified the likely winning style and early points to include 20 categories of PPGs. Rather than just early or late I actually project the win contenders' running styles and early speed point ranges. Then I use that data for eliminations for win contention, along with possible pace match ups calculated from fractional velocities ranges.

Randy is very knowledgeable and a fine person, as I have communicated with him by email several times. If you are into reading horse racing books I think his book would be a "must read" for any pace conscious handicapper.

I only wish that the book was a little longer, so the topic could be covered in a little more detail. The book looked to be rushed a little...IMO. The topic of pace is complicated enough to deserve a more thorough treatment.

I told the same to the author when he was interviewed here...and he said that he was working on a longer version of the book...where he would expand more on his pace-related thoughts.

I am looking forward to its completion.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I only wish that the book was a little longer, so the topic could be covered in a little more detail. The book looked to be rushed a little...IMO. The topic of pace is complicated enough to deserve a more thorough treatment.

I told the same to the author when he was interviewed here...and he said that he was working on a longer version of the book...where he would expand more on his pace-related thoughts.

I am looking forward to its completion.

There is more info on his website but you have to look to find it. That's where I got all the info that I now use. I've not read the book.

[fmolf]

Originally Posted by raybo

There is more info on his website but you have to look to find it. That's where I got all the info that I now use. I've not read the book.

I found the book very helpful as i like looking at the pace picture he advocates drawing.He also advocates only using a horses in the money or within 2 lengths of the winner finishes to determine running styles.This makes sense to me because it automatically eliminates bad starts where horse maybe is not pushed or races where horse is out for a tightener before the real trying effort.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by fmolf

I found the book very helpful as i like looking at the pace picture he advocates drawing.He also advocates only using a horses in the money or within 2 lengths of the winner finishes to determine running styles.This makes sense to me because it automatically eliminates bad starts where horse maybe is not pushed or races where horse is out for a tightener before the real trying effort.

While I agree that looking at only a horse's better races would be beneficial if you're assuming that the whole field is ready to run a good race. However, when you're handicapping "the field" like I do, then you need to know how each horse "normally" runs, not only when they have a good finish, because they may not all be ready to run in this race. Also, using only the horses' good races does not work with Randy's PPG well. Believe me, I have tried replacing raw running styles with running styles based on only good finishes, using many different "good race" criteria, and none of them work as well as Brisnet's running styles, which are based on all races not just the good ones.

As I said I only use them for eliminations anyway, not for anything else.