BRIS Derby PPs

[MNslappy]

Do we believe the Wood number for Mo? 111?

[BlueChip@DRF]

Originally Posted by MNslappy

Do we believe the Wood number for Mo? 111?

If the other figures like BSF and ESF match up closely with BRIS, then I would say yes.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by MNslappy

Do we believe the Wood number for Mo? 111?

I don't. The Thoro-Graph was a 2 3/4 that is not indicative of a Bris 111. Further, the Equibase was a 103 which is actually one of the lower ratings over past couple decades. Finally, that was Pletcher's and Brown's B-squad that were only a few lengths ahead of Skippylongstoking. You're telling me that horse ran a 107? Hard pass on that Kool-Aid.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

I don't. The Thoro-Graph was a 2 3/4 that is not indicative of a Bris 111. Further, the Equibase was a 103 which is actually one of the lower ratings over past couple decades. Finally, that was Pletcher's and Brown's B-squad that were only a few lengths ahead of Skippylongstoking. You're telling me that horse ran a 107? Hard pass on that Kool-Aid.

You have to go all the way back to Bellamy Road to find a faster Wood race, which is the race record at 1:47.16 back in 2005. Mo Donegal ran a 1:47.96.

If I remember correctly, Beyer gave Bellamy Road a 120 for that race. The highest ever Beyer rating of any prep race, ever. He then promptly fell flat on his face in the Derby never to be heard from again.

I think the Wood was/is a legitimate race this year though. Zandon came out of the Remsen and has proven to be a solid horse. He battled with Mo Donegal in that race back in December, and I think both horses have progressed very nicely from there.

[Tom]

Mo Donegal also ran a 153.3 over the same track.
Raw times over Aqu's dirt are meaningless.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

I think the Wood was/is a legitimate race this year though. Zandon came out of the Remsen and has proven to be a solid horse. He battled with Mo Donegal in that race back in December, and I think both horses have progressed very nicely from there.

i agree, the raw clock is legit. I just think Bris got a little figure happy here. I'm guessing you could shave 10 points off the Bris figure and get a more representaive number... which is still solid. They did the same inflated figure with Frosted some years back so it's not a a one off for this event. Three horses including an optional claimer posting huge new tops. Consider, third place Skippy got a larger figure than all but a few horses in the Derby gate. Not inconceivable but not very likely he ran better than a Zandon, Epicententer, or most any other winning horse either. I'm hoping Early Voting defects then I would only need to consider Mo for my gimmicks. I'll just be looking at him like a 101 Bris versus a 111 Bris.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

i agree, the raw clock is legit. I just think Bris got a little figure happy here. I'm guessing you could shave 10 points off the Bris figure and get a more representaive number... which is still solid. They did the same inflated figure with Frosted some years back so it's not a a one off for this event. Three horses including an optional claimer posting huge new tops. Consider, third place Skippy got a larger figure than all but a few horses in the Derby gate. Not inconceivable but not very likely he ran better than a Zandon, Epicententer, or most any other winning horse either. I'm hoping Early Voting defects then I would only need to consider Mo for my gimmicks. I'll just be looking at him like a 101 Bris versus a 111 Bris.

100% agree. We have to downgrade the Wood numbers, but the top 2 can't be dismissed. There are too many intertwining races that prove Mo Donegal to be a legit contender.

[jefftune]

Originally Posted by MNslappy

Do we believe the Wood number for Mo? 111?

And the late pace fig a 121?

[geroge.burns99]

A long time friend has told me that the top 6 E1 horses has best chance of winning

The Derby

They are:

1...Messier
2...Simplification
3...Charge It
4...Taiba
5...White Abarrio
6...Early Voting

Not bad...right?

I like Early Voting and White Abarrio as they have shown good late velocity in their PP's

[BlueChip@DRF]

Since the inception of the points system which eliminated pure sprinters from entering, E/P 7s have been dominant for a majority of the time, although it is a small same size. I would think Epicenter would be the pick since he is the lone E/P 7 in the race.

[geroge.burns99]

Originally Posted by BlueChip@DRF

Since the inception of the points system which eliminated pure sprinters from entering, E/P 7s have been dominant for a majority of the time, although it is a small same size. I would think Epicenter would be the pick since he is the lone E/P 7 in the race.

he might get the lead
But if he has to run harder to get that lead .....bye bye

[geroge.burns99]

Originally Posted by BlueChip@DRF

Since the inception of the points system which eliminated pure sprinters from entering, E/P 7s have been dominant for a majority of the time, although it is a small same size. I would think Epicenter would be the pick since he is the lone E/P 7 in the race.

Isn't Messier a E/P 8?

there are quite a few over E/P 5.....So pace should be an issue

Early Voting..OUT of Derby

[BlueChip@DRF]

2013 Orb P 2, coming in at 3-3-0-0 in his 3YO season; Verrazzano E/P 7 (14th)
2014 California Chrome E/P 7, 3-3-0-0 as 3YO
2015 American Pharoah E/P 7, 2-2-0-0 as 3YO; Upstart E/P 7 (18th)
2016 Nyquist E/P 5, 2-2-0-0 as 3YO; no E/P 7; majority were closers
2017 Always Dreaming E/P 7, 3-3-0-0 as 3YO; Fast and Accurate E/P 7 (17th)
2018 Justify E/P 7, 3-3-0-0 as 3YO, no 2YO starts; Noble Indy E/P 7 (17th)
2019 Maximum Security E/P 7, 3-3-0-0 as 3YO; Spinoff E/P 7 (18th)
2020 - not counted as it was run several months later
2021 Medina Spirit E 7; Rock Your World E/P 7 (17th) 3-3-0-0 at 3, no 2YO starts; Soup and Sandwich E/P 7 (19th)

2022
E/P 7: Epicenter
Undefeated at 3: White Abarrio E/P 6 (2-2-0-0); Taiba E/P 6 (2-2-0-0) no race as a 2YO

[Parkview_Pirate]

Interesting data there, Blue Chip. Not a huge sample of course, but it appears that without the cheap speed of the sprinters, the "class" speed gets an even bigger advantage. Makes sense because of the tight turns and fewer traffic problems.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Originally Posted by Parkview_Pirate

Interesting data there, Blue Chip. Not a huge sample of course, but it appears that without the cheap speed of the sprinters, the "class" speed gets an even bigger advantage. Makes sense because of the tight turns and fewer traffic problems.

The "pure milers" have taken over the place of the sprinters.