Beast vs. West: comparison of starts in 2010

[The_Knight_Sky]

Why are California Horses Ailing? full post here

[macguy]

I don't know what Barry Abrams does differently, but he seems to be one of the few SoCal trainers that manages to run his horses often, (compared to most other SoCal trainers) and in some cases run them back off of less than a weeks rest.

You'll also notice that his win % was under 10% last year.

So it makes me wonder...

If these are the days where every "big time" trainer wants to have a 25-30% win average, are the horses that much more unsound, or are the big stables simply just keeping their horses in reserve and spotting them in only the races where they have an excellent opportunity to win?

Perhaps a combination of them both?

A horse can't be that unsound when it manages to work 4f every 6 days all year 'round. That seems to be a common trait among many SoCal trainers, the horse runs sparingly throughout the year, maybe only 5 or 6 times; yet every single week of the year the horse is out breezing 4f.

You'll notice at tracks where the cheaper claimers are running (like Penn National) horses often have few, perhaps no workouts listed at the bottom of the PPs, instead, their trainers opting to run every 2 weeks.

I think it's in the best interests of Penn trainers to keep their horses running on a regular schedule so they can bring home paychecks, regardless of what effect that has on the trainers win %.

On the other hand, trainers in SoCal would rather keep that $50k claimer in the barn and spot him appropriately so the trainer can hold onto that 25% win average throughout the year.

I would be curious to see the stats on euthanized horses in So Cal compared to the National average.

It's not like there aren't any horses in training in SoCal, there's upwards of 2500 in training every morning, so it's not like the few horses that are in training are all breaking down.

Barry Abrams may not be winning at a 25% clip, but if you have a horse with him, you're likely going to be able to go and watch it run 10 times or more a year.

[The_Knight_Sky]

Originally Posted by macguy

A horse can't be that unsound when it manages to work 4f every 6 days all year 'round. That seems to be a common trait among many SoCal trainers, the horse runs sparingly throughout the year, maybe only 5 or 6 times; yet every single week of the year the horse is out breezing 4f.

You'll notice at tracks where the cheaper claimers are running (like Penn National) horses often have few, perhaps no workouts listed at the bottom of the PPs, instead, their trainers opting to run every 2 weeks.

MacGuy - Great point on trainer Barry Abrams.

Is there a more "fun" trainer to watch in California than him? The distance switches. The wheelbacks. The class maneuvers. Every move serves a purpose towards an objective race. It is that "race your horses into shape" philosophy that sets him apart from many of the other trainers.

For example on Saturday's SA6 Santa Margarita he contributed Party With Brando, a 5 year old mare who raced 23 times in 2010 and has 36 lifetimestarts. In the very next race SA7 he sent in Lisa Lulu a four year old filly who raced 28 times last year. If it wasn't for these two girls the Saturday average for Santa Anita would have crashed through the floor. .

I too am befuddled why trainers keep working their horses in the morning (and the owners abide by that all year long) yet many horses will show only a half-dozen starts on the year. Something's not right out west.

[The_Knight_Sky]

A quick glance at the numbers....

7 of the 48 horses in the Golden Gate survey raced 3 times or less last year. 15%

22 of the 96 horse in the Santa Anita survey raced 3 times or less last year. 23%


How would you like to be an owner of these horses?
All the purse hikes in the world won't make a difference for them.
The training costs, vet and feed bills have to be under control also
for Cal-racing to have any chance of reversing course.