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08-02-2019, 02:25 AM
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#1
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Apprentice
Join Date: Jul 2019
Posts: 10
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Recommendations for modern books/academic papers for mathematical handicapping?
Does anyone have any recommendations for books or academic papers on mathematical handicapping that have been published within the last ten years?
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08-02-2019, 06:20 AM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,176
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hpollock
Does anyone have any recommendations for books or academic papers on mathematical handicapping that have been published within the last ten years?
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Not to disparage this approach, but why do you assume that mathematics is the answer? We sometimes have an idea, and then only look for answers that fit our mindset. Here's an interesting youtube video that's from 2013 by a Phd in statistics. I have to admit to not totally understanding the approach.
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One of the downsides of the Internet is that it allows like-minded people to form communities, and sometimes those communities are stupid.
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08-04-2019, 04:37 AM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 22,650
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here is one, might give you some ideas
Precision: Statistical and Mathematical Methods in Horse Racing
by C X Wong c 2011
welcome to the forum and good luck
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08-04-2019, 10:32 AM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: uk
Posts: 374
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There's plenty 'o papers out there, this one is from 2010
https://www.researchgate.net/publica...eural_networks
It uses Back-Propagation with Momentum, Quasi-Newton, Levenberg-Marquardt and Conjugate Gradient Descent learning algorithms
I read this is some forgotton physics paper once...
Two physicists working on confinement were asked to predict the result of a horse race involving N horses. The first did extensive analytic and Monte Carlo calculations, and came back months later with the solution to the problem, provided the horses were spherical. The second found a unique solution to the problem, but only in the limit that 1/(1-N) tended to infinity."
Last edited by zerosky; 08-04-2019 at 10:33 AM.
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08-04-2019, 05:38 PM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 1,506
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hpollock
Does anyone have any recommendations for books or academic papers on mathematical handicapping that have been published within the last ten years?
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Your question is somewhat open-ended, so I'll just throw a few things out which might be clarified by your response.
If you follow this subject at all you might be aware of the work of Bill Benter, who has won somwhere in the range $1 billion using a mathematical model, beginning in the late 80s. Zjelko Raganojec has used similar techniques to a make a similar sum in Australia. Although now more than 25 years old, you might find it useful to take a look at 'Efficiency of Racetrack Betting Markets' which contains both Benter's original paper on the application of logit modelling to horseracing as well as the Bolton-Chapman paper on which it was based. The volume, a collection of academic papers on the title subject, was edited by Bill Ziemba, who is, himself, a valuable resource in this field.
A couple of books by Leighton Vaughn-Williams from the early aughts:
'Betting to Win'
'Information Efficiency in Financial and Betting Markets'
Vaughan-Williams is Professor of Economics and Director of Betting Research at the business school of Nottingham Trent University. You might consider shooting him an e-mail with your question.
Since the '90s, there has been an exponential growth in the mathematical analysis of gambling in the academic world, as you may know. One of the most prominent and from what I understand, successful figures to have emerged during tht time is Minggao Gu -- he has also collaborated, at times, with Benter. He has a number of academic papers online, with many, but not all, understandably behind a paywall.
One possible implication of Gu's recent work is that logit modelling may now be superseded, at least in Hong Kong, by more sophisticated mathematical tools. However, I know people still using it, and linear regression generally, with success in European and other parts of the world.
You might want to consider a search on the posts of Trifecta Mike and Magister Ludi on this site. Both were well-trained in advanced mathematics, and both described the diminishing returns from the use of linear techniques in U.S. horseracing. TM was part of a syndicate successfully employing Bayesian hierarchical methods, and ML referred to non-linear correlations as far more profitable than linear.
If you can make your question more specific, I'll try to answer in kind.
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08-04-2019, 05:59 PM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 1,506
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Epstein
Quote:
Originally Posted by Whosonfirst
Not to disparage this approach, but why do you assume that mathematics is the answer? We sometimes have an idea, and then only look for answers that fit our mindset. Here's an interesting youtube video that's from 2013 by a Phd in statistics. I have to admit to not totally understanding the approach.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5gW0PO7g6pY |
Re the comments of Richard Epstein on the difficult of making money from horseracing in your signature line, I believe this was from the first (1967) edition of 'Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic,' He changed his tune on this subject in the second edition (2009) of the book, in which he discusses profits from a specific genetic handicapping method. By chance, I happened to be in a long e-mail exchange with Don Schlesinger, who is a close friend of Epstein, while he was helping the then-82-year-old author, edit the latter book, so read it more carefully.
Worth noting, imho, that although this is a classic book on gambling, that Epstein's expertise is fundamentally on casino games, which are, in themselves, mathematical systems. Note that he lumps the entirety of financial markets and horseracing into one chapter on 'Statistical Betting' and 'Statistical Systems,' because of the 'real-world' element they share, and thus are not part of the subject he considers himself to be treating. Certainly there is much more known about making money in financial markets and even horseracing than is indicated here, and Epstein would be the first to agree.
Last edited by lansdale; 08-04-2019 at 06:00 PM.
Reason: grammar
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08-05-2019, 12:37 PM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2012
Posts: 441
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Google Scholar is Your Friend
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08-05-2019, 12:50 PM
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#8
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Buckle Up
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Magister Ludi
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Why? Who? Is that it?.....Low energy post.
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08-05-2019, 01:07 PM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2012
Posts: 441
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clr: 1. linear regression cannot be effectively used with nonlinear functions 2. regression analysis is not appropriate for most racetrack betting markets 3. clr is highly effective for removing calcium, lime, and rust
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08-05-2019, 01:09 PM
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#10
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Buckle Up
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Magister Ludi
clr: 1. linear regression cannot be effectively used with nonlinear functions 2. regression analysis is not appropriate for most racetrack betting markets 3. clr is highly effective for removing calcium, lime, and rust
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Regurgitating much?....I know that's all you've got... 
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08-05-2019, 01:23 PM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2012
Posts: 441
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
Why? Who? Is that it?.....Low energy post.
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As much as I despise Elsevier, I won't help you to breach their paywall.
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08-06-2019, 09:50 AM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,563
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Throw away the books, I say...whether they be "mathematical", or otherwise. In this game...nothing truly worth knowing will ever be sold in a book. Open a modest ADW account, so you can access the daily past performances for the price of a $2 bet...and then conduct your own independent investigation into the intricacies of this game. Any meaningful discoveries that are to be made will have to be uncovered by you alone. And if you are a relative beginner to this game, then consider yourself fortunate...because there will be a lot less that you'll have to UNLEARN.
__________________
"Theory is knowledge that doesn't work. Practice is when everything works and you don't know why."
-- Hermann Hesse
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08-06-2019, 10:21 AM
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#13
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,871
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And when you practice, make REAL berts, not parper bets.
Even it is $2 bets - actual $$$ makes lessons sink in far easier than mnd bets. When you make those, all you can lose is your mind.
And the losing ticket cements it for you.
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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08-06-2019, 10:36 AM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,563
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom
And when you practice, make REAL berts, not parper bets.
Even it is $2 bets - actual $$$ makes lessons sink in far easier than mnd bets. When you make those, all you can lose is your mind.
And the losing ticket cements it for you.
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Exactly...and I am kicking myself for leaving that out. When you paper-bet...you give yourself the impression that you are a lot more creative and courageous than you really are.
__________________
"Theory is knowledge that doesn't work. Practice is when everything works and you don't know why."
-- Hermann Hesse
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08-06-2019, 10:48 AM
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#15
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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I HAVE MANY (OUT OF YOUR PUBLISHING DATE RANGE), BUT THE WON I MOST HIGHLY RECOMMED IS BUTRON FABRICAND'S "HORSE SENSE", NOT SO MUCH FOR IT'S SELECTION PROCESS, BUT RATHER FOR HIS RACE RESULTS ANALYSIS.
I'LL ALSO RECOMMEND "EFFICIENCY OF RACETRACK BETTING MARKETS"
IT CONTAINTS OVER 50 PAPERS WRITTERN BY PEOPLE LIKE HAUSCH, ZIEMBA,LO, AND GET READY FOR THIS, HARRY H. LUDLOW, PRESENTLY THE DIRECTOR OF THE NATIONAL COUNCIL UNDER DONALD TRUMP (HEY, NO ONE IS PERFECT)
THOUGH READ IF YOU ARE NOT STATICALLY PROFICIENT, BUT THE CONCLUSIONS AFTER EACH PAPER ARE WORTH THE READ
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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