Arlington Million Day

[Tom]

Lots of good turf races this Saturday.
Hope is doesn't rain.

Play along?

I'll start with the 1st - 7 furlongs, poly.

Ghetto Cat - 3rd of a layoff, improved in the last, has won at a mile at AP
Has won almost a third of his poly race- 8 exacta finished from 19 starts on it.

5-2 Space Traveler didn't get the job done off the big drop last time.
Sea of Change looks like good runner up, 7 place/show from 11 poly starts.

[Valuist]

In reading about the Beverly D, an interesting point at the bottom of this article, as Dandino, the defending champ of the St. Leger, is said to need more conditioning. As for the Beverly D, I don't think we will see anything close to 6-1 on Just the Judge. A yielding course for today's races, even if there's no more rain, the ground will not be rock hard and should suit the Euros. 40% chance of rain for Saturday.

http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse...=last7DaysNews

[Some_One]

Interesting note, however Dettori is making the trip from the UK mainly for that race, yes he has other mounts, but mostly for Ward because he's already there IMO. I don't think the connections would send Dettori if they weren't all that serious.

[Redboard]

Race 7, over 13 panels on the grass, has a bunch of interesting value plays. Last year’s first and second place finishers of this race are back and should get plenty of play, which should leave everyone else inflated.

#6 Hardest Core is coming off three straight wins on the turf with speed figures as good as anyone else in the race, is listed at 20-1. Has done well on the soft too.

#9 The Eye of The Storm, O’Brien’s 4-yr-old is coming off a G3 win in Ireland going counter-clockwise and is a fat 6-1.

So much of this will depend on just how soft that turf is going to be.

[BIG49010]

The Secretariat is going to be an interesting race, just wondering how good or bad the American Derby really was. Everyone seems to have down graded the race?

Anyone do any actual timing of those two races at a mile and 3/16ths?

If your wondering what I am talking about take a look at the times recorded for Divine Othh and I'm Already Sexy then look at the Beyers?

[QTwithTQ]

I spent a little time working out the Arlington Million All Stakes Pick Four - starting in the 7th race - and it is shaping up to be a good one. There are certainly some horses that can win at a price. After a quick initial run through, my ticket is a 5x3x4x3 ticket ($.50 = $90). Needless to say, it needs some work tomorrow morning after I get a better read on the weather and after scratches are announced. I would like to whittle that down a bit so I can increase the wager. I expect this P4 to have a better payoff than the Saratoga Alabama Stakes P4.

There's been fantastic coverage on Thoroughbred Racing Commentary all week, including Simon Rowlands' (head of R&D at Timeform) analysis of the European contingent in the Million , a chat with trainer Charlie Hills about Just The Judge , and some stories about jockey's Colm O'Donoghue and Ryan Moore . Must read before as you finalize those tickets.

[Valuist]

Here's the video of the Singapore Airlines Int'l Cup, in which Smoking Sun (2nd) and Side Glance (5th) both ran. Pretty impressive close by Smoking Sun, who's the 7. Interesting that the announcer is calling a different name for the winner than the name listed in the DRF: Dunboyne Express.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O5VllSFPujk

[Valuist]

In 30 years of betting the Million day cards and the Breeders Cup, there's one thing that can't be forgotten: the "second tier" Europeans often times out perform their more highly touted comrades. You have the top tier Euros, who are here strictly based on their performance; often times you have what appear to be lesser Europeans who come over because they can (and NEED) to run on Lasix.

[Tom]

AP Race #5

What a terrible race!
Only the and have won a turf sprint.
The 2 comes off a series of 2 furling races....what the heck?
But,,,,,he picks up a 22% rider today.
has a good turf record, and is 29% route to sprint.

9-5
10-1
5-1

[GaryG]

8th Secretariat
GENERAL JACK

9th Beverly D
STEPHANIE'S KITTEN

10th Arlington Million
SMOKING GUN

[biggestal99]

Originally Posted by Valuist

You have the top tier Euros, who are here strictly based on their performance; often times you have what appear to be lesser Europeans who come over because they can (and NEED) to run on Lasix.

They don't NEED Lasix to control bleeding. They NEED Lasix to compete on equal terms with their North American brethren. One only has to look at Gailo Chop, ran WITHOUT vitamin L in the American Derby, and finished a flat 4th. Back in his native France yesterday pulled down a G2 at Deauville.
The use of raceday Lasix improves performance in most modern TBs.

Allan

[dirt]

7th #5

8th # 6-9

9th #1

10th # 7-2

11th #4

[Tom]

Originally Posted by Tom

AP Race #5

What a terrible race!
Only the and have won a turf sprint.
The 2 comes off a series of 2 furling races....what the heck?
But,,,,,he picks up a 22% rider today.
has a good turf record, and is 29% route to sprint.

9-5
10-1
5-1

Make that AP Race #2

[Tom]

AP Race #3

The 3 for 5 over this grass, and 50% turf lifetime.
Gets Javier today, a 29% J/T combo.

and for the bottom of the exactas.

[Capper Al]

Trackman -- My selections -- Trainer long shot

r1: 4-11-1-5; 4-5-2-11; 8
r2: 7-5-1-6; 5-7-1-8; 3

looking for odds in r1 for #8 and #3 in r2 to play. This is a test.