Doug Salvatore's great piece on the Derby figure...

[TheEdge07]

Doug Salvatore is a top notch handicapper.His take on the derby figure,

In the figure making process in North America, the basic goal is to determine how fast a horse ran while accounting for the speed of the racing surface.

"Facts" are things like: fractional clockings, final time, beaten length margins, relationships between distances, weight carried, ground loss on turn, wind velocity and direction.

Of course, these aren't even actually real facts. North American races are timed with varying run-up. The fractional and final time clockings are occasionally timed wrong or reported wrong. The chart callers don't always get the margins correct. The weight carried isn't even always dead-on precise. And wind velocity and direction is a variable I'm not sure anyone knows how to accurately account for all of the time. It can hinder the day-to-day relationships between distances.

Nevertheless, flawed as each one is, these are the facts. The facts make the figures. Thus, the figures make themselves...(with the aid of algorithms, parallel time charts, beaten length adjustments, etc.)

The "theories" start to arise when:

A.) The figures show a clear pattern suggesting the surface changed speed.
B.) A figure makes no sense at all to any sane person.
C.) A figure makes no sense at all to the person who is making the figures.
D.) A figure comes to a conclusion with which we strongly disagree.

There are countless reasons why A-through-D happen. Everything from the race being timed inaccurately, to changes in weather conditions, and so on.

The remedy comes in the form of "split variants" as well as the more extreme measure of "cutting a race loose"

After this, you've arrived at your final figure. Obviously, there are varying types of figures. For instance, sheet style figs will account for weight, wind, and ground loss -- but not pace.

In the case of the speed figure for this years Kentucky Derby. I think of a quote attributed to Arthur Conan Doyle that warns "one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts."

The "facts" clearly point to one single conclusion -- the race was alarmingly slow!

The test now is "can I twist theories to suit these facts?" The answer for me is yes...

* The race in question is run at a longer distance than any horse had ever run. They all carried more weight (126lbs) than ever before. The congested field, led to either rough trips or wide trips. Off the pace types were subjected to taking a lot of kickback on day when closers didn't perform well.

* The problem I have with the argument that the track slowed WAY down for the Derby, look at Race 13, a 2-turn route that was run only five points slower than the Derby. I guess it sped back up again.

* We Miss Artie, a poor dirt horse with excellent turf and synthetic form, ate a ton of dirt and finished 10th, but was still only beaten 8.25 lengths. This is the same We Miss Artie who was blown off the track in an in-company workout the weekend prior. Even with California Chrome getting only a 97 Beyer, We Miss Artie still "pairs up" his figure for his perfect trip Sprial win.

* Commanding Curve, a plodder I selected to finish 4th in print, never got the pace setup he seemed sure to get. Still, he finished 2nd beaten less than two lengths. This is the same horse who finished 6th in the Risen Star and was 3rd beaten 5 lengths to Vicar's In Trouble in a Louisiana Derby that went much slower than the girls did in a tough Fair Ground Oaks edition on the same card. He still has his N1X allowance condition. While he enjoyed a remarkably clean trip, he still ate a ton of dirt as well.

My conclusion: Give the horses a few bonus points for racing an extra 1.5 furlongs into a head-wind versus the races on the card at 8.5 furlongs. Also, assume improvement from some horses for logical reasons. They'll cutback, they'll have easier trips, they'll mature physically, they'll carry less weight...stuff like that will obviously lead to improvement.

The Kentucky Derby is an outlier type race, and horses figure to go backwards in it because of the more demanding circumstances to it.

I've noticed two great figure makers are also using track maintenance happenings to soup the figure up to a more comfortable number for them. Maybe correctly so on their part, who really knows.

However tough this figure was, it's cringe worthy to see a lot of racing fans, industry people, and media members dismiss the speed figure as it's somehow 100% irrelevant.

Most amusingly, the people who are doing it the loudest, are the same exact people who either shunned or glossed over the

[cj]

He is greatly underestimating the effect of wind. I have some very good data on the effect of wind on the Derby time from an independent source who is an expert on the subject that I'll share soon. The Derby was run between 2 and 3 seconds slower than if there was no wind. That is fact.

[PICSIX]

Originally Posted by cj

He is greatly underestimating the effect of wind. I have some very good data on the effect of wind on the Derby time from an independent source who is an expert on the subject that I'll share soon. The Derby was run between 2 and 3 seconds slower than if there was no wind. That is fact.

When you share, will it include a comparison of previous Derby's and their respective wind effect(s)?

Thanks,

Mike

[cj]

Originally Posted by PICSIX

When you share, will it include a comparison of previous Derby's and their respective wind effect(s)?

Thanks,

Mike

No. I really have no interest in past years right now, I'm only worried about this one and getting the rating as good as possible. I don't doubt for a second that wind has played a role in the final time of past runnings of the Derby.

[lamboguy]

this sounds like its creating a lot of havoc going forward this year in the 3 year old colt division.

i thought this was a great field in a great race that CALIFORNIA CHROME dominated. in about a month i will either be proved right or wrong.

[dannyhill]

Originally Posted by cj

He is greatly underestimating the effect of wind. I have some very good data on the effect of wind on the Derby time from an independent source who is an expert on the subject that I'll share soon. The Derby was run between 2 and 3 seconds slower than if there was no wind. That is fact.

Never really tried to include an accurate wind adjustment in a figure, always just keep detailed records on the direction and ground speed. 2 or 3 seconds does sound like a lot though. Curious to hear more. No doubt wind has an affect on running times. Some doubt it. Watch the times on a windy day. With a tail wind they run opening quarters several lengths quicker and carry that speed further. Head winds lead to slower opening quarters and often closers. It all goes back to early energy expenditure.

[cj]

Originally Posted by dannyhill

Never really tried to include an accurate wind adjustment in a figure, always just keep detailed records on the direction and ground speed.

No problem admitting is isn't something I'm able to do myself, which is why I reached out to someone else.

[dannyhill]

Originally Posted by cj

No problem admitting is isn't something I'm able to do myself, which is why I reached out to someone else.

Here i was thinking you stayed at a Holiday Inn Express the night before the Derby.

[clocker7]

Astute handicappers avoid putting any emphasis on any one particular figure, with or without variant applied.

Figures are crude estimations based upon clockings, but are also impacted by too many unquantifiable factors. Each one offers the chance to commit financial suicide by building undeserved confidence in a calculation that is fraught with error and uncertainty about its quality.

The power of figs is with their usage over a large sample, where any individual bogus fig or three becomes less intrusive in the collective estimation of the abilities of runners one bets on.

I get a bellylaugh when I see people arguing over this or that clocking, Beyer, etc. Instead, just move on ... and let the power of probabilities recapture your brain again.

[ten2oneormore]

Originally Posted by TheEdge07

* The problem I have with the argument that the track slowed WAY down for the Derby, look at Race 13, a 2-turn route that was run only five points slower than the Derby. I guess it sped back up again.

Or the wind died down

[classhandicapper]

OK, it's time for my typical semi joke about figures (as someone that uses figures).

This is why some people eventually become class handicappers.

Wind, run up, track maintenance, mistimed races, surface speed changes etc... don't impact your ability to evaluate the quality of a field and the relative trips within it very much.

Of course trying to evaluate a field full of shippers, maidens, NW1 horses with limited races etc... without figures can also be a nightmare, but Derbys, not so tough.

[cj]

Originally Posted by ten2oneormore

Or the wind died down

It did somewhat. There is a twofold effect of that. First, obviously, it allowed the horses in race 13 to run faster.

Second, on Derby day, the track was watered right after each preceding race. Before the Derby, it was watered and there was 1 hour and 45 minutes until the race. Higher wind and more time allowed the track to dry. Before race 13, there was about 30 minutes. Less wind and less time equals more moisture, which equals faster surface.

[dannyhill]

Originally Posted by ten2oneormore

Or the wind died down

Was waiting for somebody to say this, it had. Another factor is the watering of the track. I'm not sure how much it got watered after the Derby.

[ronsmac]

Originally Posted by cj

He is greatly underestimating the effect of wind. I have some very good data on the effect of wind on the Derby time from an independent source who is an expert on the subject that I'll share soon. The Derby was run between 2 and 3 seconds slower than if there was no wind. That is fact.

In my opinion wind is the most important factor when it cimes to times of races. That's what makes pace and speed figures so hard to compute accurately.

[garyoz]

Originally Posted by ronsmac

In my opinion wind is the most important factor when it cimes to times of races. That's what makes pace and speed figures so hard to compute accurately.

I think that Len Ragozin has been saying wind is one of the top factors for about 4 or 5 decades (and subsequently Thorograph) but has been discounted by short-cut figure makers who never account for it. That's why good figs are priced how they are priced.