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08-21-2007, 10:22 PM
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#16
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 2,394
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by judd
$3.00 horses dont excite me  |
They might not be exciting but a win is a win. Like mentioned in the thread on favorites......some are good some are terrible. You have 2 choices with a horse like Bill gave out. Either bet it and take a small winning or just pass the race.
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08-22-2007, 08:01 AM
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#17
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Florida/Southern Ontario
Posts: 653
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More than two choices
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Originally Posted by RaceBookJoe
They might not be exciting but a win is a win. Like mentioned in the thread on favorites......some are good some are terrible. You have 2 choices with a horse like Bill gave out. Either bet it and take a small winning or just pass the race.
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You could also use this horse as a single in pick 3's. The first leg winner was 2-1 followed by a long shot leading to a $236 pick. Using 2 horses in the 1st leg and then the all button and this horse is an $18 ticket. Assuming that the payout shown is for $2, your $1 ticket gets you $118, turning this 1-2 play into a 7-1 shot. Of course if you also singled the first leg, the return is doubled. If you like to roll the picks as I do then the next race gives you half of $252. I don't play River Downs but the leverage afforded with horizontal plays works everywhere.
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08-22-2007, 10:49 AM
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#18
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 2,924
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Well the man went to bat here and got his lock home with a $3 mutuel.
If anyone thinks that is easy, posts here are free.
Congrats Bill, you have gained my respect!
As I said before,
NO Good Post here goes Unpunished!
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08-22-2007, 11:21 AM
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#19
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Veteran
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 7,139
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I often ponder which way is the best route to profits. If you look at my Vcash,I have doubled it from its original bankroll. 100%roi. However,this is basically from nailing 1 longshot in maybe 20 races or so. On the other hand,you could have a guy like BO who will sit and wait for a sure bet at even money,and could bet it all and have the same ROI as me when his Walmart pick(not to be undersold),comes romping home at even money. He now has as much dough as me and alot less nerve damage from betting only 1 race as opposed to my 20 races. However,I think my advantage is that my entire bankroll does not have to be risked on 1 race where as his does to reach the same ROI.Also if he misses one race while risking his entire bankroll,he will have a serious time recouping. Its like a baseball player at bat. He gets one strike and he's out. I get 20 strikes and I'm out.
Last edited by Light; 08-22-2007 at 11:30 AM.
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08-22-2007, 11:37 AM
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#20
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 1,336
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Light
I often ponder which way is the best route to profits. If you look at my Vcash,I have doubled it from its original bankroll. 100%roi. However,this is basically from nailing 1 longshot in maybe 20 races or so. On the other hand,you could have a guy like BO who will sit and wait for a sure bet at even money,and could bet it all and have the same ROI as me when his Walmart pick(not to be undersold),comes romping home at even money. He now has as much dough as me and alot less nerve damage from betting only 1 race as opposed to my 20 races. However,I think my advantage is that my entire bankroll does not have to be risked on 1 race where as his does to reach the same ROI.Also if he misses one race while risking his entire bankroll,he will have a serious time recouping. Its like a baseball player at bat. He gets one strike and he's out. I get 20 strikes and I'm out.
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with your approach, a rebate makes you much more ahead of the game.
john
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08-22-2007, 01:03 PM
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#21
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 172
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Good thread!
The decisions we must make everyday. Glad to see so many contributed.
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08-22-2007, 01:03 PM
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#22
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 532
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Light
I often ponder which way is the best route to profits. If you look at my Vcash,I have doubled it from its original bankroll. 100%roi. However,this is basically from nailing 1 longshot in maybe 20 races or so. On the other hand,you could have a guy like BO who will sit and wait for a sure bet at even money,and could bet it all and have the same ROI as me when his Walmart pick(not to be undersold),comes romping home at even money. He now has as much dough as me and alot less nerve damage from betting only 1 race as opposed to my 20 races. However,I think my advantage is that my entire bankroll does not have to be risked on 1 race where as his does to reach the same ROI.Also if he misses one race while risking his entire bankroll,he will have a serious time recouping. Its like a baseball player at bat. He gets one strike and he's out. I get 20 strikes and I'm out.
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When did I ever say that I "risk my entire bankroll"? I never risk more than a couple of percentage points. Only a fool would risk too much of his stake
And for the record, I DON"T only BET FAVORITES. Ask any of my clients about the $18.40 winner we had last week that was shipping from CT to LRL and the other boxcars I put over. I just don't post them here.
It's all about value. It doesn't matter if the horse is 20-1 or 1-5. If the odds are greater than the risk, then it's a good bet.
B 
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08-22-2007, 01:15 PM
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#23
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Easy Goer
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Tampa,Florida
Posts: 3,440
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Bottom line IMHO…
The man has the balls to post picks and then walk the gang plank in gambling circles by calling them…”A Lock”.
When he cashes he even offers to buy his fellow gamblers a beer. These men are in short supply in my experience.
Salute!!!
__________________
Dan G
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“We don't stop playing because we grow old; we grow old because we stop playing.” ~ George Bernard Shaw
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08-22-2007, 01:20 PM
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#24
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 532
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I'll drink to THAT, my good man!
Take care, Dan
U B OK
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08-22-2007, 05:07 PM
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#25
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Veteran
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 7,139
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Bill Olmsted
When did I ever say that I "risk my entire bankroll"? I never risk more than a couple of percentage points. Only a fool would risk too much of his stake
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My example of a chalk player having to risk his entire bankroll betting chalk to achieve an ROI similar to a longshot player was to illustrate the superior betting strategy of the longshot player over the chalk eater. You got people applauding $3 and $4 horses.Most players realize its wiser to pass these races than to bet them because it would require an impossible hit rate to profit from them.In my entire career as a horseplayer,its always been the bombs that saved me,never the chalk. Every contest,be it on this board or in Vegas has been won by betting the longshots.I dont know how you bet in real life,but I wouldn't know that you bet anything other than chalk by what you have bet here in the selections section.Your locks are cute,but thats about it for me.Not knocking you as a person,so keep your perspective.Am in alot of agreement with you in other areas.
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08-22-2007, 05:14 PM
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#26
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Bird Rock
Posts: 16,697
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by DanG
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Even voluminous amounts of beer can't help some:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2HiuCaaQhxg
PS to Light: Remember, double space after a period and after a comma. (I was the only guy in my high school typing class)
Last edited by bigmack; 08-22-2007 at 05:16 PM.
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08-22-2007, 05:39 PM
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#27
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Easy Goer
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Tampa,Florida
Posts: 3,440
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bigmack
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LOL… 
No, straight to the ’80 proof for them!
__________________
Dan G
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“We don't stop playing because we grow old; we grow old because we stop playing.” ~ George Bernard Shaw
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08-22-2007, 06:22 PM
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#28
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 532
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Get Dowwwwwwwwwnnnnnnn!
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08-22-2007, 06:57 PM
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#29
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Guest
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bigmack
Even voluminous amounts of beer can't help some:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2HiuCaaQhxg
PS to Light: Remember, double space after a period and after a comma. (I was the only guy in my high school typing class) |
I'm an editor, so I can't help but let you know...the double space thing, not really true anymore unless you're typing an old-school letter on white paper or something. Single spaces are standard. Sorry---couldn't help myself!
Good job Bill.
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08-22-2007, 07:09 PM
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#30
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Veteran
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 7,139
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BM
With the prices BO is getting,I dont think he can afford a 6 pac.
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