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08-20-2007, 09:50 AM
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#106
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Easy Goer
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Tampa,Florida
Posts: 3,440
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From the peanut gallery…
I fail to understand why this discussion often falls into either / or.
There useless / there imperative…
I’ve read where the condition of the animal today is the key to cashing bets. OK…if you believe that to be true then why does the knowledge of how fast they have run in the past interfere with approach?
For example; If someone watched me handicap depending on when they saw the process they would either say I used trips, positional match ups, internal velocity, adjusted performance ratings, trainer / jockey reports, pedigree etc…Personally, I can’t tell you how much money & time being able to interpret good figures has saved me.
In fact I reversed the process of watching replays and numeric handicapping many years ago and it was a huge step forward. I found when I did the replay work first I became married to trips and visual impression and would often try to make their demonstrated ability fit my visual perception. ( Assuming they had established form). Once I did the numeric work first the visual work took on the proper perspective, at least for me.
I understand completely that a profitable game can be built around choosing to use them…or not. But to me, to say their useless is based in the fact that every approach to someone is useless.
BTW: I haven’t read every post. If this is about Beyer #’s only I can’t offer an opinion as I don’t use them.
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Dan G
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“We don't stop playing because we grow old; we grow old because we stop playing.” ~ George Bernard Shaw
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08-20-2007, 09:53 AM
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#107
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,602
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DanG
From the peanut gallery…
I fail to understand why this discussion often falls into either / or.
There useless / there imperative…
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08-20-2007, 01:43 PM
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#108
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Just Deplorable
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Lebanon, Ohio
Posts: 8,063
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nobeyerspls
When you or I cash a nice ticket on a longshot we win the silent debate on figures that is present in every parimutuel pool.
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And when you don't cash, do you lose the debate? And does that not happen more often than not, if you'll forgive the double negative? Cherrypicking examples of big winners or highly-bet losers isn't very convincing to me. Saratoga was known as the Graveyard of Favorites (or the Graveyard of Champions, take your pick) long before the Form began publishing Beyers. Why is that?
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08-20-2007, 01:51 PM
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#109
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 172
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If favorites are made based on past record/accomplishment you now have them racing at an altitude they have never raced at previously as well as the concept that they mature at different rates. If they were ahead of the others previously have the others caught up OR even surpassed them?
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08-20-2007, 03:55 PM
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#110
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Florida/Southern Ontario
Posts: 653
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Yes and yes
Quote:
Originally Posted by rastajenk
And when you don't cash, do you lose the debate? And does that not happen more often than not, if you'll forgive the double negative? Cherrypicking examples of big winners or highly-bet losers isn't very convincing to me. Saratoga was known as the Graveyard of Favorites (or the Graveyard of Champions, take your pick) long before the Form began publishing Beyers. Why is that?
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The answers to your two questions are yes and yes. But when I cash it is usually for more than the other guy gets when I lose. So maybe I win a debate by a vote of ten and lose the next one by a margin of two.
It takes a certain mindset to bet longshots as you have to be able to accept losing more races than you win. Further, a review of my records shows that for every three trips to the track I lose twice and win once. If I can keep that ratio intact, I can achieve a decent return because the loss exposure is low and there is no upside limit.
I didn't mean to cherry pick and I know I could post several examples from each track every day. This thread, however, is growing tiresome. It looks like several on here use speed figures effectively but not the beyer speed figures. No one tried to answer the example I posted in post #17.
As to Saratoga, it is not my favorite venue despite my love of longshots. I had a 38-1 a while back that got caught at the wire by a 30-1.
The number of 2yo maiden races and turf races might account for the graveyard of favorites thing. Also, stiff competition coming in from all over. Still it's a challenge and I get involved with the early pick 4 but avoid the races after the fifth.
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08-20-2007, 04:23 PM
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#111
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,786
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You did not provide anywhere near enough info in Post 17 to warrant a reply.
Identify the race and I will comment on it.
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Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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08-20-2007, 05:27 PM
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#112
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DanG
From the peanut gallery…
I fail to understand why this discussion often falls into either / or.
There useless / there imperative…
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You are right. All that's needed is to accept the variability and talk about getting around it. For example, I think most cappers would agree that one should be wary of speed figures for 2 year olds and maidens. Also, we should note that a horse 11 points down might still win and probably at a price.
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
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08-21-2007, 07:44 AM
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#113
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Florida/Southern Ontario
Posts: 653
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Dancin Renee Stakes
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom
You did not provide anywhere near enough info in Post 17 to warrant a reply.
Identify the race and I will comment on it.
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It was the first Thursday of the meet, the Dancin Renee stakes won by a filly named Precise Lady. I think that it was the third race.
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08-21-2007, 08:06 AM
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#114
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Unreconstructed
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Appalachia
Posts: 6,645
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nobeyerspls
It looks like several on here use speed figures effectively but not the beyer speed figures.
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The point of this thread, started by the red guy who became the blue guy, was about the value of figures, not those of Beyer. I am certain that the majority of board members use figures, either home made or purchased commercially. Many of these are long time winning players. If anyone doesn't want to use figures they are certainly welcome to use the method(s) of their choice. But don't tell me that it is not possible to win with figures. That has been proven again and again. This thread has been an exercise in futility.
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Deo Vindice
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08-21-2007, 08:44 AM
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#115
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,602
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I think the complexities of making figures limits their accuracy. (wind changes, run up differences, track maintenance between races, one turn/two turn differences, weather changes, small sample sizes on some days, the impact of pace and race development on time, track to track comparisons etc..)
So IMHO, when people point to very small differences in figures as conclusive evidence that one horse ran better than another, I think they are sometimes overrating the effectiveness of figures.
On the flip side, moderate to greater differences are very meaningful and their ability to identify contenders in some of the less clear situations is almost indisputable.
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08-21-2007, 08:52 AM
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#116
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Florida/Southern Ontario
Posts: 653
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We always agreed
Quote:
Originally Posted by GaryG
The point of this thread, started by the red guy who became the blue guy, was about the value of figures, not those of Beyer. I am certain that the majority of board members use figures, either home made or purchased commercially. Many of these are long time winning players. If anyone doesn't want to use figures they are certainly welcome to use the method(s) of their choice. But don't tell me that it is not possible to win with figures. That has been proven again and again. This thread has been an exercise in futility.
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I tried to make it clear that my comments were limited to beyer speed figures. In an earlier post I stated that some very good handicappers on here were computing and employing speed/pace figures with success. Now, the red guy/blue guy did not say that he made or purchased figures so it is logical to assume that he is referring to that beyer speed figure column in the form that my eyes never see.
You are right about the "exercise in futility" comment because on this thread, and in similar ones in another forum, no one has come to the defense of the beyer speed figures. For me they serve two useful purposes: they lead my wagering opponents astray and, on a windy day, the extra ink keeps the pages from blowing around.
However, when my live horse gets nipped at the wire by one I didn't bet, it just could be that some pace/speed figure guy found that horse where I could not. When that happens, the guy doesn't need my congratualtions because he has my money. But look at all those horses who are overbet by the public because of the bsf's. The irony here is that people making their own figures are confirming my opinion of the beyers.
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08-21-2007, 04:05 PM
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#117
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 532
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The real benefit of speed/pace figures is bestowed upon those of us who make our own variants and numbers-- by hand--without the aid of a computer.
It's hard to explain to someone who has never burned the midnight oil, pen and paper in hand, making note of the variances between expected running times and actual times. But when you get down in the mud and wrestle with the results charts, comparing actual performace with expected performance,then you will know what it is to create real art. Computer generated numbers are crap in my opinon.
B
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08-21-2007, 04:08 PM
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#118
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Lehigh Valley, PA.
Posts: 7,464
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SPEED FIGS
Beyers are not computer generated, but I think Bris figs are.
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08-21-2007, 04:20 PM
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#119
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 532
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It is the process, not necessarily the final result (the speed figure itself) that is most important. If you blindly use the Beyers or BRIS numbers or my numbers or anybody's numbers--no matter how good they are--you will miss out on the big picture. It is the context that matters, how the numbers were earned and under what circumstances.
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08-21-2007, 04:20 PM
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#120
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Unreconstructed
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Appalachia
Posts: 6,645
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Olmsted
The real benefit of speed/pace figures is bestowed upon those of us who make our own variants and numbers-- by hand--without the aid of a computer.
It's hard to explain to someone who has never burned the midnight oil, pen and paper in hand, making note of the variances between expected running times and actual times. But when you get down in the mud and wrestle with the results charts, comparing actual performace with expected performance,then you will know what it is to create real art. Computer generated numbers are crap in my opinon.
B
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I have been making Quirin style numbers since 1988. When you make your own you know what went to each day's figs. The only difference now is that I use a spreadsheet instead of a loose leaf notebook. The drawback is that there is no possible way I could handle more than two tracks at the same time. Nobody by myself to blame if I screw something up. I like the Quirin figs because they give you a clear look at the race shape. You have to make sure and anticipate improvement, otherwise your figs just get smaller.
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Deo Vindice
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