Stock Market Prediction

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by AltonKelsey

I'm monitoring this thread for the timely SELL alert



I hate giving back more than 20% of my account value , 19 I can live with

Sell everything now and never get back in again.

Problems solved.

[highnote]

Originally Posted by donmat

Instead of relying on a single SELL signal I've been using Adaptive Asset Allocation. Rank the top 1 or 2 asset classes based on momentum each month and invest in them. Usually beats the S+P 500 but this year is under performing.

The model I use has three monetary factors and one momentum factor plus I use a few more. The SP has fallen 4% from its peak which is negative momentum and is a sell signal. However, in this case it is not enough of a signal that indicates going 100% into cash. I have cash on the side and have been waiting for a pullback so I can buy. This might be a good time to buy. I will wait and see how it shakes out. The economy looks good overall. Interest rates are low. A lot of money will be flowing into the market. Buffett is sitting on 122 billion in cash. He will put this to use at some point.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by highnote

Buffett is sitting on 122 billion in cash. He will put this to use at some point.

He's waiting for a much bigger drop than you're anticipating, that's for sure...

[highnote]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

He's waiting for a much bigger drop than you're anticipating, that's for sure...

Maybe. I assume he would buy a good value regardless of the level of the sp

[Saratoga_Mike]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Sell everything now and never get back in again.

Problems solved.

And rob us of his great wit?

[ReplayRandall]

Dow -850.....Just a drop in the bucket. The real Storm hasn't even arrived yet.

[PaceAdvantage]

Ben up...ben down....who cares.

The leftists only post when it drops...when it goes back up, they never mention it...has happened a couple of times during Trump...it's hilarious to watch.

If the market goes back up from here at some point, they'll never say a word...they'll only post on big down days, as if it means something.

[highnote]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

Dow -850.....Just a drop in the bucket. The real Storm hasn't even arrived yet.

This is good. The market hit all time highs recently. A pull back should make for some buying opportunities.

My gold/silver mining stocks are up 5% today.

Ray Dalio gave good advice about building what he calls a four season portfolio. If one part is down , chances are another will be up. It is a good way to build long term but you won't get rich as quickly as buying 10 banger high tech stock.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Dramatic change in rate expectations now vs early last week. The market is now pricing in a 68% chance of rates (fed funds) being 100 bps lower by the end of this year. Gold seems to agree and expects even more.

[highnote]

Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike

Dramatic change in rate expectations now vs early last week. The market is now pricing in a 68% chance of rates (fed funds) being 100 bps lower by the end of this year. Gold seems to agree and expects even more.

I read or heard the bond or futures market was pricing in a 90% likelihood of lower rates. I forget how many basis points. But the point is rates are probably going lower. Bad for savers. Good for home buyers.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Originally Posted by highnote

I read or heard the bond or futures market was pricing in a 90% likelihood of lower rates. I forget how many basis points. But the point is rates are probably going lower. Bad for savers. Good for home buyers.

That's for the next meeting (Sept). For Sept, there's a 42% chance of a 50 bps cut and a 58% chance of 25 bps (so 100% chance of a cut). My prior post was for the cumulative change by year-end.

[highnote]

Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike

That's for the next meeting (Sept). For Sept, there's a 42% chance of a 50 bps cut and a 58% chance of 25 bps (so 100% chance of a cut). My prior post was for the cumulative change by year-end.

A 50 point cut would send a very interesting signal. Right now rates are around 5.25%. Historically, that is not all that low. Back in the early 60s my grandfather shopped around for a loan. He turned one down at 4.50% for one at 4.25%.

Martin Zweig used 8% as the dividing line between high and low rates. So there is still a lot of room for cuts.

[AltonKelsey]

5.25 % for what ?


30 yr mortgage is 4%



Zweigs ancient benchmarks are like trying to handicap with my old Kelco Calculator

[highnote]

Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike

That's for the next meeting (Sept). For Sept, there's a 42% chance of a 50 bps cut and a 58% chance of 25 bps (so 100% chance of a cut). My prior post was for the cumulative change by year-end.

There is an old saying that low interest rates have long tails. So I expect them to stay low for the next couple of years.

[highnote]

Originally Posted by AltonKelsey

5.25 % for what ?


30 yr mortgage is 4%



Zweigs ancient benchmarks are like trying to handicap with my old Kelco Calculator

Prime rate is 5.25

Bill Ziemba and I co-wrote this paper on using Zweig today:

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full...2.2015.1165917

It has served me well.