Preakness 2015 Final TIme

[raybo]

Originally Posted by highnote

If AP comes anywhere near Secretariat's time in the Belmont a lot of light will be shed.

I don't think anyone with any racing intelligence in the country, or the world, thinks there is any chance of that happening. That was a once in a lifetime, or two, event. Unfair to even entertain the thought. He would have to outperform Secretariat to even come close to his time, back then, on that track, back then. What are the chances of AP outperforming Big Red? About zero.

[highnote]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

After a certain point, I know a horse, and unless something changes he'll continue to be that same horse.

Makes sense. Especially in older horses who are running at a distance they are known to do well at. Skip Away, My Flag and Serena's Song come to mind. I saw them race many times. Their owners kept racing them even though their coats became dull and they lost that jump in their step. Maybe the owners and trainers were too close to the horses and missed the slow changes. As a paddock handicapper I only saw them every month or two. So when their appearance in "today's" race didn't match my memory of them in the previous winning race I knew they were not going to run well.

Serena's Song couldn't stay more than 9 furlongs. I don't think she ever won at 10 (but correct me if I'm wrong).

AP is unproven at 12 furlongs. Those are big, wide turns and horses at Belmont tend to run faster in the early fractions than the jock realizes. The jocks also tend to move too soon in 12 furlong races at Belmont -- like Chris Antley did -- even though he said he wasn't going to. He made a mistake because he wasn't experienced enough at 12 furlongs at Belmont. The mistake cost him a triple crown.

So if you see changes in his appearance that could be significant. But even if you don't see changes in his appearance he still might not stay 12 furlongs.

He's still the horse to beat despite his high Dosage Index.

[highnote]

Originally Posted by raybo

I don't think anyone with any racing intelligence in the country, or the world, thinks there is any chance of that happening. That was a once in a lifetime, or two, event. Unfair to even entertain the thought. He would have to outperform Secretariat to even come close to his time, back then, on that track, back then. What are the chances of AP outperforming Big Red? About zero.

If AP runs 2:26 to 2:28 that will put him in the conversation with the best of, say, the past 20 years or so and maybe longer.

2:26 or less will mark him as one of the all-time greats.

People thought Bob Beaman's long jump record was unbeatable until someone beat it. Johnny Unitas's record of 47 games with a touchdown pass was unbeatable until it was broken. Babe Ruth's home run record. The 4 minute mile.

If breeders decide to breed for stamina again then Secretariat's record may fall someday. There is a lot of speed in today's breed and high dosage numbers bear this out. If more stamina is infused then the racehorse breed may very well start to carry their speed over a distance of ground faster than ever before. That was the original goal of breeders. It's still the goal, but the distances a horse can carry their speed is getting shorter.

Any horse can stay 12 furlongs -- it's just a matter of how quickly they can cover the ground.

I'd love to see AP run the Belmont in 2:26. Probably not going to happen, though.

So you're right -- the chance is closer to zero than to 100% that AP will run the Belmont as fast as Secretariat.

[highnote]

Here is a link to a recently updated excellent analysis of Dosage and KY Derby:

http://chef-de-race.com/dosage/class...ree_matter.htm

Dosage is, in fact, a pedigree classification system intended to monitor the dynamic changes in the relationship between pedigree type and track performance over time.

The ten highest Beyer Speed Figures belong to Derby winners with a DI of less than 4.00. Without him knowing it, Beyer's own data confirm a correlation between Dosage and Kentucky Derby performance.

[Some_One]

226.56 is Point Given's time, I think that is the benchmark for the modern day Belmont IMO as I have PG as the best horse not to win the TC in this era

[raybo]

Easy Goer ran 2:26.00 in '89, I don't consider '89 in the same era as today's horses, or today's track surfaces. Point Given's 2:26.80 may not even be in the same era, nobody has run under 2:27:50 since his time. I would say a 2:28+ to 2:29.00 would make him one of the best of this era. But, I still doubt that would be nearly comparable to Secretariat's Belmont performance (23 3/5, 46 1/5, 1:09 4/5, at 1 1/2 miles, is simply miraculous).

[tucker6]

Originally Posted by highnote

So you're right -- the chance is closer to zero than to 1% that AP will run the Belmont as fast as Secretariat.

fyp

I like AP but he's not Big Red.

[garyoz]

Originally Posted by raybo

I don't think anyone with any racing intelligence in the country, or the world, thinks there is any chance of that happening. That was a once in a lifetime, or two, event. Unfair to even entertain the thought. He would have to outperform Secretariat to even come close to his time, back then, on that track, back then. What are the chances of AP outperforming Big Red? About zero.

Agreed--like comparing any sport between eras. Need to appreciate them in context. It is an annual discussion:

http://articles.baltimoresun.com/201...t-seattle-slew

Also an interesting academic article comparing two different era horses:

ManO' War and Secretariat:

http://www.truevine.net/members/sec@...ends/Paper.htm

[reckless]

Originally Posted by raybo

Easy Goer ran 2:26.00 in '89, I don't consider '89 in the same era as today's horses, or today's track surfaces. Point Given's 2:26.80 may not even be in the same era, nobody has run under 2:27:50 since his time. I would say a 2:28+ to 2:29.00 would make him one of the best of this era. But, I still doubt that would be nearly comparable to Secretariat's Belmont performance 23 3/5, 46 1/5, 1:09 4/5, at 1 1/2 miles, is simply miraculous).

The fractions of Secretariat's Belmont is the trick to any conversation about 'greatness' in the running horse.

Sure some nice horses have kissed close to 2:26 in winning the Belmont over the years and American Pharoah or some other horse down the road may even better 2:26 someday for sure.

But it will take a horse able to run 1 1-2 miles like a 'machine' to be included in any comparisons to Secretariat.

[OTM Al]

Originally Posted by highnote

If AP runs 2:26 to 2:28 that will put him in the conversation with the best of, say, the past 20 years or so and maybe longer.

2:26 or less will mark him as one of the all-time greats.

Time for a little TC trivia for those obsessing on time. Of the 10 TC winners with the Belmont Stakes at its current 12f, how many won in less than 2:26?

That would be one. Matter of fact he's the only one to win the race period in that time.

How many won in less than 2:28?

That would be two. Affirmed and Secretariat were the only ones that meet this measure. By this measure, Citation was not a great horse and Whirlaway stunk, winning in a pitiful 2:31.

Thank goodness since the advent of speed figures horseplayers have learned that time is relative.

[Tom]

It's useful in the Belmont and, as I've written a few times in this thread, no winner of the Belmont in the past 13 runnings has won with a DI over 3.00.

How many have tried, and how many had previously won at 10 and 9.5 furlongs in Gr1 company?

[Kash$]

Pharoahs opponents couldnt come within 7 lengths of the slowest time since 1955-

[Relwob Owner]

Originally Posted by highnote

If AP runs 2:26 to 2:28 that will put him in the conversation with the best of, say, the past 20 years or so and maybe longer.

2:26 or less will mark him as one of the all-time greats.

People thought Bob Beaman's long jump record was unbeatable until someone beat it. Johnny Unitas's record of 47 games with a touchdown pass was unbeatable until it was broken. Babe Ruth's home run record. The 4 minute mile.

If breeders decide to breed for stamina again then Secretariat's record may fall someday. There is a lot of speed in today's breed and high dosage numbers bear this out. If more stamina is infused then the racehorse breed may very well start to carry their speed over a distance of ground faster than ever before. That was the original goal of breeders. It's still the goal, but the distances a horse can carry their speed is getting shorter.

Any horse can stay 12 furlongs -- it's just a matter of how quickly they can cover the ground.

I'd love to see AP run the Belmont in 2:26. Probably not going to happen, though.

So you're right -- the chance is closer to zero than to 100% that AP will run the Belmont as fast as Secretariat.

Given his times in the Derby and the Preakness(yes, it was in the slop and that may have been a factor), I can't see AP running any fast than 2:28 and I think that is even a stretch.

That being said, assuming Frosted and Materiality run, I think if he wins, it will be well earned. He will have beaten the best to come directly out of the Derby to the Preakness, as well of those who sat out. I really look forward to betting against him and if he beats me again, then we will have a TC won, which I will enjoy.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Tom

How many have tried, and how many had previously won at 10 and 9.5 furlongs in Gr1 company?

Hey Tom. Hey all. Those are good questions and are along the same theory (at least in general) as my opinion.

In this thread I've already explained my POV on why I feel that once you 'know' a horse, that the stuff like dosage or final times become mere 'trivia questions'.

I will share something else with this group; Although these things don't matter after you know a horse, I do think dosage(or really 'pedigree' rather than dosage, unless dosage is in fact what you find to be the best stamina measure) is important for breeding.

The reason this is so is not at all tricky - It's because although I may know how good AP can perform, and I may know how far he can run, and I may know what his limiting factors are - that doesn't mean that he's necessarily a direct translation of his pedigree.
Trainers are a significant factor, as are other things. Bob Baffert is an elite trainer, and he consistently has horses that can outrun their distance pedigree. Baffert races and trains many of them very fast. He has occasional 2nd or 3rd stringers that put in workouts that would look outrageous in contrast with some barns graded stakes horse's workouts.

Top trainers do also tend to get great pedigrees and healthy, precocious, well-bred juveniles, so it is very hard to separate, but breeding is tougher to handicap than horse races.

[classhandicapper]

I'm glad I'm not the one that has to make a figure for that race. At least the 14th race look kind of formful. So maybe it will help. I'm just drawing a line through the race anyway. Clearly the track was a mess and several horses didn't handle it at all.