Doug Salvatore's great piece on the Derby figure...

[clocker7]

Originally Posted by cj

Or, since everyone knows the data is imprecise, nobody bothers trying to be precise.

Some problems do not lend themselves to mathematical precision; ergo, chasing it is an exercise in futility. Sure, continue to study and grow the body of knowledge. But patching on a minor tweak to a gross estimaton (swamped by the power of unquantifiable variables) would not have impressed any of my former math/science profs; especially the ones that would force a student to justify generating significant figures where they didn't belong. They taught a basic scientific principle with that drill, and I don't remember any classmates grousing afterwards that they were just being tiresome, quibbling jerks. Or know-nothings.

By its nature, the Kentucky Derby is an outlier to normal fig-based handicapping procedure. It is not just another 6f outing in a series of them done at the same track by sprinters repeating themselves, where some level of confidence is deserved. The low-hanging fruit of a huge pool tempts people into quicksand where nobody knows whether a bet really is an underlay or an overlay; and to finagle some numbers that have as much danger as value.

[highnote]

Originally Posted by clocker7

By its nature, the Kentucky Derby is an outlier to normal fig-based handicapping procedure. It is not just another 6f outing in a series of them done at the same track by sprinters repeating themselves, where some level of confidence is deserved. The low-hanging fruit of a huge pool tempts people into quicksand where nobody knows whether a bet really is an underlay or an overlay; and to finagle some numbers that have as much danger as value.

Bruce Springsteen wrote in "Blinded by the Light":

Mama always told me not to look into the sights of the sun.
Whoa, but mama, that's where the fun is!

Doing things like betting the KY Derby is what the metaphor in "Blinded by the Light" is all about.

Sadly, for the first time in over 20 years I did not bet the Derby because of the HANA boycott, however, it is still a fun race to bet on.

It is also an important race to breeders. This is the first time these 3 year olds are mature enough to run a mile and a quarter. The best horses in the country are matched up against each other. It is quite a spectacle.

On the other hand, there are those like the late Jim "The Hat" Bradshaw who said things like, "It's just another horse race." Grizzled veterans may feel that way and it's easy to get jaded, but when you take a step back and let yourself be swept up by the festivities it is a lot of fun.

Handicapping and racing don't have to be serious and scientific all the time.

Yeah, you might have a couple too many mint juleps and yeah you might bet more than you should and yeah it's going to hurt if you lose a lot of money and you'll probably regret drinking that last mint julep. But so what. Life is short. Savour the moment because being a part of the KY Derby is where the fun is.

[YT="Blinded by the Light"]7Iaca30QbOo[/YT]

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by clocker7

The almost ought to be a law that, given the squirreliness of the race because of its very nature, every figure MUST be rounded off to the nearest 5 or 10.

So here we are today, with various figures experts still patching on refinements without real measurements, just guesses; and producing output that suggests a reliability that, imo, doesn't exist. Wouldn't it be more rational to just toss this race altogether, except for the knowledge that quite a few of the runners finally weeded themselves of classic race consideration for the foreseeable future?

I agree with you 1000%.

It's one thing to try to understand a race by adjusting for the all the factors that may have impacted the fractions, final time, and their relationship.

If it's your job, you have no choice. But even if not, that's how you learn. I do that too.

It's another thing to allow the result of a particularly messy situation to dictate your opinion when there are alternative ways of evaluating the same set of information that were not hindered by any of that mess.

There are times when "times" are more reliable than a qualitative view and there are times when a qualitative view is more reliable than the "times". That's pretty much the lesson to be learned from this Derby no matter what your opinion of the race.

[clocker7]

highnote: I had a lot of fun with the 2014 KD without betting a dime. As long as people recognize that it should be done by betting with recreational money, instead of serious cash, no problemo. It's no different from a trip to Vegas, and mentally setting aside some losses in advance.

All I am doing here is offering critique on a particular race, and not fig-making in general or having a good time with America's most popular horse race. The gist of my argument is: if you are going to engage in science and present it as such, then follow the rules of science 100% of the time. And refrain from tainting science with art; then it strays off into pseudo-science. Once something strays off the reservation of science, it does not become a hybrid of arty-science or scientific art, it becomes just art and should be declared as such.

I don't know how many people are comfortable with the figs that have been arrived at after the fact; probably not many. I think in these odder, outlier situations (that represent about 1%-5% of figure-making), I personally would respect someone that would decline to make one or leave an asterisk, rather than cobbling up something for the customers.

[cj]

Everyone seems to agree the Derby is unique in racing today. I have no problem isolating it from the other races on the card, even from the other routes. The Derby is unique in that there are also 19 horses participating. That is a lot of data to work with and use as a projection for making figures. And, before any wind discussion or watering discussion, that is exactly what I did.

I first rated the race along with the other routes. Doing so made the Derby so slow it defied all logic. So, I rated it the best I could on it's own merits. I didn't treat it any differently than I would an odd 10f starter allowance race at Mountaineer Park. No figure is a certainty, but I'm as confident in the Derby figure as any other race on that card.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by cj

Everyone seems to agree the Derby is unique in racing today. I have no problem isolating it from the other races on the card, even from the other routes. The Derby is unique in that there are also 19 horses participating. That is a lot of data to work with and use as a projection for making figures. And, before any wind discussion or watering discussion, that is exactly what I did.

I first rated the race along with the other routes. Doing so made the Derby so slow it defied all logic. So, I rated it the best I could on it's own merits. I didn't treat it any differently than I would an odd 10f starter allowance race at Mountaineer Park. No figure is a certainty, but I'm as confident in the Derby figure as any other race on that card.

If I was going to make a figure that's the way I would do it.

[clocker7]

The Kentucky Derby IS unique ... until five weeks later when similar problems that severely compromise analyzing the situation numerically raise their heads.

[garyoz]

The Oaks and Derby Day Cards with final numbers are up at Thorograph as the Race of the Week.

[highnote]

Originally Posted by cj

Everyone seems to agree the Derby is unique in racing today. I have no problem isolating it from the other races on the card, even from the other routes. The Derby is unique in that there are also 19 horses participating. That is a lot of data to work with and use as a projection for making figures. And, before any wind discussion or watering discussion, that is exactly what I did.

I first rated the race along with the other routes. Doing so made the Derby so slow it defied all logic. So, I rated it the best I could on it's own merits. I didn't treat it any differently than I would an odd 10f starter allowance race at Mountaineer Park. No figure is a certainty, but I'm as confident in the Derby figure as any other race on that card.

It's interesting that you isolated it. Nick and I discussed the race and with his method he tied all dirt races together. He found that the outlier was the first race, not the Derby.

Now, he has refined his method over many years on British tracks where they mostly race on the turf, they run only about 6 races per day, the distances vary greatly from race to race and the meetings only last a day or two. He ended up with a figure that approximates Steve Roman's and yours.

He doesn't make pace figures because sections are not usually timed in GB. So that is probably one reason he can lump all the tracks together. I'll have to ask him if he would still lump the races together if he made pace figures.