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03-12-2011, 09:57 PM
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#1
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Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 25,607
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Runflat out's Future Derby price
So, he was 5-1 yesterday and now he's 16-1. I didnt realize people can bet, watch some racing and then get refunds the next day.
Who knew!
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03-12-2011, 10:43 PM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 1,202
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Sooo...
This Runflat out beat 5 maiden sprinters in his lone start.
And that makes him an instant Derby candidate? 
I'd say someone's got Derby Fever.
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03-13-2011, 01:53 AM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 4,005
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I admit I was kinda high on the 2 maidens in this race, wow, I think last and next to last. They were done before they hit the turn
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03-13-2011, 12:14 PM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 3,761
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Stillriledup
So, he was 5-1 yesterday and now he's 16-1. I didnt realize people can bet, watch some racing and then get refunds the next day.
Who knew!
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You don't think it had something to do with the pool jumping from $40k to $140k and Runflatout not getting much, if any, more money?
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03-13-2011, 03:38 PM
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#5
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Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 25,607
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by FenceBored
You don't think it had something to do with the pool jumping from $40k to $140k and Runflatout not getting much, if any, more money?
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Still, 5-1 to 16-1 is a big jump.
Major tracks in today's society can and do quite often handle 140k in the win pool. If a win pool ends up at 140k, it usually has 40k in the pool with 5 mins to post. Not too many 5-1 shots at 5 mtp end up going off at 16-1 without a refund.
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03-13-2011, 04:12 PM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 3,761
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Stillriledup
Still, 5-1 to 16-1 is a big jump.
Major tracks in today's society can and do quite often handle 140k in the win pool. If a win pool ends up at 140k, it usually has 40k in the pool with 5 mins to post. Not too many 5-1 shots at 5 mtp end up going off at 16-1 without a refund.
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Let's say someone put 6k down on Runflatout at the open of wagering on Friday. Late Friday night, he's taken just a bit more (say $800), and the total pool is 40,828. What's the percentage of the pool (16.66%) and therefore what are his odds (5-1)? Now, let's say on saturday he picks up about $1,500 and the pool grows from 41k to 141k. What's the percentage for that $8,300 (5.88%) and therefore his odds (16-1)? No cancelling needed, all that's needed is somebody willing to put $6k down early in the cycle and very few people willing to tag along.
In fact, John Asher was on the radio Saturday morning saying exactly that. Runflatout took a large chunk early and when everybody else (who weren't going to bet on him) had placed wagers the odds for Runflatout would probably float back up to 20-1. As I type this he's up to 24-1 in a pool or $217,409, which means he probably hasn't taken a cent today.
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03-13-2011, 04:51 PM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,056
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I don't think you can cancel a future bet, can you? Isn't that the whole idea once you put the bet up it's final, no cancellations or refunds?
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03-13-2011, 05:03 PM
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#8
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Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 9,893
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by FenceBored
Let's say someone put 6k down on Runflatout at the open of wagering on Friday. Late Friday night, he's taken just a bit more (say $800), and the total pool is 40,828. What's the percentage of the pool (16.66%) and therefore what are his odds (5-1)? Now, let's say on saturday he picks up about $1,500 and the pool grows from 41k to 141k. What's the percentage for that $8,300 (5.88%) and therefore his odds (16-1)? No cancelling needed, all that's needed is somebody willing to put $6k down early in the cycle and very few people willing to tag along.
In fact, John Asher was on the radio Saturday morning saying exactly that. Runflatout took a large chunk early and when everybody else (who weren't going to bet on him) had placed wagers the odds for Runflatout would probably float back up to 20-1. As I type this he's up to 24-1 in a pool or $217,409, which means he probably hasn't taken a cent today.
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Stop using facts and math to back up your point. It makes it difficult for SRU.
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03-13-2011, 05:05 PM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 5,005
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Runflat out's Future Derby price
Correct, affirmedny. The explanation lies elsewhere, and I'd buy into the "big early hit" scenario.
Ocala Mike
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03-13-2011, 10:36 PM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 1,829
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Why anyone would bet the Derby Future pool until right before it closes is incomprehensible, especially if you were betting on a horse that was running that same weekend.
There aren't enough zeroes to tack onto Runflatout's odds to make me think about him.
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03-14-2011, 04:41 PM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 1,202
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by sandpit
Why anyone would bet the Derby Future pool until right before it closes is incomprehensible....
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Someone didn't have his thinking cap on.
Just like that Laurel Pick 4 bettor last week.
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