Advice for a new handicapper

[LottaKash]

Q. How do you make a small fortune betting on horses...



A. Start with a large fortune. ....

[Overlay]

Originally Posted by LottaKash

Q. How do you make a small fortune betting on horses...



A. Start with a large fortune. ....

Originally Posted by Overlay

As they say, the way to end up with a small fortune at the track is to start out with a large fortune.

Great minds think alike. (Post #115 in the "Successful Horseplayers" thread on the "General Handicapping Discussion" board.)

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Overlay

Great minds think alike. (Post #115 in the "Successful Horseplayers" thread on the "General Handicapping Discussion" board.)

Hey...that's a catchy little phrase you two guys came up with. Congrats!

[zerosky]

Reading traderX reminded me of a bookmakers quote from a novel written in 1894

A bookmaker is explaining that he will take bets from any 'cove' who strolls in to the racecourse apart from one particular type.....

'there's one cove I can't abide, he's at every meeting.

"What would you say his system was?"

'I don't know no more than yerselves'

"Are they outsiders he backs?

'No only favourites. But what I can't understand is that there are times when he don't touch them and when he don't nine times out of ten they're beaten'

George Moore (Esther Waters)

[glengarry]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

First off I am not sure we really know what these computers are capable of(past posting, reading info from blind pools etc) but I will assume that they only can read exacta and double pools and have no way of reading bets that are not in transit. What do they do to these pools, them make them more efficient. How does that cause people to lose money, simple, the same guy who used to jot down the exacta or double probables 25 years ago and bet value, when he does the same thing today, that $75 combo he is now betting will drop significantly more by the time the race goes off, because some computer read every combo and knocked down the price on all combos offering value. So now instead of making a 2 or 3 % profit overall, he now will be loser overall. You just turned a winning player into a losing player. The only "proof" is that they are generating a rebated aided profit, which means they are betting huge amounts of money, and since they are obviously winning, they are betting these large amounts of money at a losing percentage less than the takeout. The same argument I have applied in 4 threads about rebates applies here. $100,000 bet by the public at -22% and $40,000 bet by whales at -7% (aided by a 10 or 11% rebate-I am not sure what the exact numbers they work on in exotics but this should not be too far off I dont think). So with the $40,000 they bet, they lose $2800 but the track takes out $8800. Additional $6000 is paid for by the public. There takeout just jumped from 22% to 28% on the public.

I am not saying or have never said to ban winning players, but that is the math involved is why they make it very tough on other players. Do we need to give them the store (huge rebates and access to info possibly not available to anyone else)? If they can access the info in pick 3's or pick 4's or pick 5's, trifectas, superfectas.....than they would do the same to those pools. I am not sold that nobody can access the information from these pools "you are welcome to prove my opinion wrong". If computer guys can hack and steal credit card numbers from companies as big as Target, I would assume they can figure out a way to get info out of that awesome state of the art system that racetracks use. If 6 million dollars is/was spent on a robotic wagering system, I would assume that spending some large capital to exploit the tote system is a possibility. NO?

Great post. As Michael Corleone said: "If we learned anything in life, it's that nothing is impossible". As for betting overlays, I suggest batch bettors be forced to bet an equal amount using their software to beat harness racing. Being forced to bet millions on overlays in harness racing would put them out of business permanently. If anyone here tells me they are already doing it, and winning, then something is very rotten.

[TraderX]

If I were a young person getting involved today and wanted to avoid a lot of heartache, I would probably seek out a good viable longshot method. We all know ROI trumps win percentage all the time. Concentrate on 8-1 and up horses, and condition yourself mentally to deal with long losing streaks. Maybe easier said than done, and I have certainly never done it, but always admired those who claimed to do so. Life would be grand if a guy could just put in his 2 or 3 bets each morning, then go on about his business knowing that several times a month he would nail a few huge winners. Of course being me, I would progression bet the longshots mildly too--lol. Maybe after every 5 losses increase the betting unit by just one unit, etc..

Picking winners is overrated I believe. Myself as an example betting high win percentage sprint races with very thin margins is not a way to enjoy this as a sport. Making large bets and sitting on your hands all day is boring and stressful. Yes, it makes money, but I can assure you it is not fun.

Today was a BIG day at Aqueduct on the last race day. I actually had 3 bets today, all of which hit. Race 4, Size paid 5.10. Race 6, Loki's Vengeance paid 2.90. Race 9 Henry's Gal paid 3.00. Let me tell you, this no way to enjoy yourself!

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by TraderX

If I were a young person getting involved today and wanted to avoid a lot of heartache, I would probably seek out a good viable longshot method. We all know ROI trumps win percentage all the time. Concentrate on 8-1 and up horses, and condition yourself mentally to deal with long losing streaks. Maybe easier said than done, and I have certainly never done it, but always admired those who claimed to do so. Life would be grand if a guy could just put in his 2 or 3 bets each morning, then go on about his business knowing that several times a month he would nail a few huge winners. Of course being me, I would progression bet the longshots mildly too--lol. Maybe after every 5 losses increase the betting unit by just one unit, etc..

Picking winners is overrated I believe. Myself as an example betting high win percentage sprint races with very thin margins is not a way to enjoy this as a sport. Making large bets and sitting on your hands all day is boring and stressful. Yes, it makes money, but I can assure you it is not fun.

Today was a BIG day at Aqueduct on the last race day. I actually had 3 bets today, all of which hit. Race 4, Size paid 5.10. Race 6, Loki's Vengeance paid 2.90. Race 9 Henry's Gal paid 3.00. Let me tell you, this no way to enjoy yourself!

My motto has always been..."If you are not bored when you are gambling...then you are playing the game wrong".

[raybo]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

My motto has always been..."If you are not bored when you are gambling...then you are playing the game wrong".

Pretty much says it!

I guess, about the most excited I get when playing is when I think I have made a wise bet and it turns out to be that, while differing with what the public as a whole displayed. Maybe that's just ego, but it makes one feel good about one's skill and all the work they have put into getting to that point.

[BettinBilly]

Where were you guys when I was starting out?

Some pretty sage advice in this thread.


I still get a little excited when my horse(es) come(s) down the stretch and it looks like I nailed the capping. I don't do any wild program clapping nor let everyone in the clubhouse know I am the man, but it's still a thrill to me. Not so much when I lose.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by BettinBilly

Where were you guys when I was starting out?

Some pretty sage advice in this thread.


I still get a little excited when my horse(es) come(s) down the stretch and it looks like I nailed the capping. I don't do any wild program clapping nor let everyone in the clubhouse know I am the man, but it's still a thrill to me. Not so much when I lose.

I was probably studying the game every day, but not playing yet, depending on what time frame you're talking about of course.

[BettinBilly]

I hear ya' Ray.

Well, when I got "Serious" about being a Horseplayer, there was no Internet - Mid 80's. I played earlier than that, but not with focus. I mostly played around before then.

There was CompuServe, and I did have a Radio Shack TRS Model III micro computer at home, but I don't recall any Horseplayer groups or chat rooms or anything like that on CompuServe back then.
I think there were a few rudimentary Handicapping programs around written in Basic or "Machine Language" for the Tandy Computer, but I didn't pay them any mind. I was just starting out. Books, magazines, The DRF and older guys at the track. That's what we had.

I can't imagine having resources like there are today. What a boost.

[ronsmac]

I'm late to this thread, but my advice and I'm keeping it real as they say. Find a different sport or hobby. this is a sinking ship with very little regard to the player.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by BettinBilly

I hear ya' Ray.

Well, when I got "Serious" about being a Horseplayer, there was no Internet - Mid 80's. I played earlier than that, but not with focus. I mostly played around before then.

There was CompuServe, and I did have a Radio Shack TRS Model III micro computer at home, but I don't recall any Horseplayer groups or chat rooms or anything like that on CompuServe back then.
I think there were a few rudimentary Handicapping programs around written in Basic or "Machine Language" for the Tandy Computer, but I didn't pay them any mind. I was just starting out. Books, magazines, The DRF and older guys at the track. That's what we had.

I can't imagine having resources like there are today. What a boost.

Yup, I didn't start looking at racing until 1978, after 8 years in the military. I had taken a job as a draftsman at a custom millwork shop (residential wood building materials) and one of the guys out in the customs area had been playing the ponies for about 15 years by then, and soon he decided that I "had what it took" to become a good player, so he became my mentor, and is to this day, although he is still very "old school" and I'm all computer.

I had a TI - 99 computer and started programming in Basic, but soon got rid of it and bought a Tandy Color Trac II (I think that's what the model was) and found a handicapping program written in Basic and on a cassette tape (audio tape of course). It didn't take me long to print out the code and start writing my own. Gave it to my brother-in-law to put in machine language and work out a couple of bugs (unwanted looping, etc), and that's the last I saw of it. Later I got my first real PC and soon after that discovered Excel. Been working in Excel ever since. But, during all that time I was studying the paper DRF and the charts in the Ft Worth Times Herald. Made 2 trips to LaD during the 20+ years after '78 (lost $50 the first trip and broke about even the 2nd trip), and that's all the betting I did during that 20+ years, the rest of the time I was just studying to get my game ready for prime time.

Of course, my first "serious" handicapping program, in Excel, mirrored the DRF past performances because that was the presentation I was used to, using ITSData files, I believe, then switched to Brisnet files. The only book I read from cover to cover was about Pittsburg Phil. Still fall back on his words of wisdom today. Now days, I read lots of articles on the internet, but no books. My daughter sent me Crist's book on exotic betting several years ago, I got so bored after the first few pages I closed it and have never opened it since - LOL.

[BettinBilly]

Books can be very dry reading with regard to Handicapping. I've recommended to new Horseplayers that they consider reading a few select books that I thought were great, but I always warn that it's very difficult for many to get through them. Frequently, I always alternatively point to some good videos on Youtube that cover the basics with some good examples in Audio/Video format that most can stay focused on and actually learn something.

I had a professor in college that taught me a good lesson with regard to Textbook reading - which is what most Handicapping books are - Textbooks. He said, "I may call on you tomorrow to actually teach chapter (whatever) to the class. Make sure you are prepared to teach it." I try and get through Handicapping books that same way, as if I'm going to have to teach the material I'm reading. Doesn't always work, but sometimes, it does.

On an bit more complex topic, I recently read "Exotic Wagering Formulas" by Tom Walters - as suggested by Just Ralph. I really got through this no problem. Not sure if it was because it's a very quick read, or if I was supremely focused because at this stage, I know I really need this knowledge. Sure, I did not absorb 100 percent, but I did get some good pointers from it, and can always refer to it on-going.

[tshinder]

Originally Posted by Robert Goren

For beginners only A couple James Quinn's books

The Complete Handicapper: You Can Beat the Races!


The Best of Thoroughbred Handicapping: Leading Ideas & Methods


Although Quinn never had an original thought in his life, he is very good at regurgitating a collection of the last ideas in the field in one place. If you find something that strikes your fancy in one of his book, you can always find a book by the original author.
I believe there are kindle editions of both books.
If you want to make money, go back and read Pondman's posts. In this day of Whales betting the value out of almost every runner, you have to find situations that happen so rarely that the whale miss them. Something that pops up once every couple or less. I think there are quite a few spot plays out there, but they require work and ingenuity to find them.

Wouldn't you consider the Handicapper's Condition Book an original "idea"?