Dr. "Z" & "Beat The Race Track" Inquiry

[eddessaknight]

Anyone had experience with any of Prof William Ziemba's materials including
place & show wagering in 'Beat The Race Track' ???
(& or The Efficiency Of Race Track Betting Markets)

Thanks in advance-

Regards,
eddessaknight

[DJofSD]

I explored this approach in the '80's using a programmable calculator. Sitting in front of the tote board while at the local wagering facility punching in numbers to identify a play was fun to a point but it got old quickly. Eventually, the number of opportunities seemed to decline. I can't imagine now with all the sophisticated S/W that there are plays to be had.

[garyoz]

It was an interesting study 20 years ago. Not much value added today. Still the greatest title: "The Efficiency of Race Track Betting Markets" Sure sounds compelling.

[stu]

I interviewed him for HorsePlayer Magazine several years ago. I think that he has some very interesting theories that are mathematically difficult for the masses but valuable if you want to work through it.


Stu

[Nosebob]

Originally Posted by DJofSD

I explored this approach in the '80's using a programmable calculator. Sitting in front of the tote board while at the local wagering facility punching in numbers to identify a play was fun to a point but it got old quickly. Eventually, the number of opportunities seemed to decline. I can't imagine now with all the sophisticated S/W that there are plays to be had.

I had similar experiences in the '80's. Even then, late action was very difficult to factor in. Playing at a small track (Los Alamitos), bets had to remain small to avoid lowering the payoffs. I was only able to get close to break even, and gave it up.

I suspect it is much more difficult today.

Nosebob

[saevena]

Many years ago I did extensive testing of Dr. Ziemba's place and show wagering methodology and it just "don't work" (doesn't produce a profit). The "system" is based upon theory-hypothesis, not empirical data, and utilizes the Harville formulas. Harville himself admitted that his own results using his formulas were "mediocre" (you will not find this information in Ziemba's book). If any system using place/show pool discrepancies could show a profit, it couldn't be utilized today because of the large amount of money that comes into the pools after the race has started.

[timtam]

I can still remember trying to get the pool amounts back in the early

80's when the camera panned the toteboard for a few seconds watching

Racing Alive in the infancy of home tv at penn national. I actually

took a few trips there armed with a programmable calculator and watched

every odds change with unblinking eye. That was fun for a short few trips

but then I starting forcing plays and losing I figured it wasn't much fun

or profitable.

One of my favorite cartoons comes from his book Betting the thorobreds

or something like that I think it was his second book.

A little Casper Milquetoast guy in a suit is punching in numbers with

a hand held calculator and standing next to him is this huge guy with a

a rumpled suit with all kinds of tout sheets hanging from his pocket.

If only it were that easy and I think Dr Z and his gang tried to make it

out that is all you had to do.

[SMOO]

I made decent money back in the 80's with it too, but I had copycats behind me in line lowing the advantage (no self tellers back then).

[Good4Now]

and therefore precludes many from using it. As others have posted programming it into a calculator allowed you to use it.

one useful thing I learned from it was that if you wager more than about one half of one per cent (actually that is TO MUCH) of the $'s in a POOL you are NEGATIVELY impacting your pay out.

His use of regression analysis is very disciplined. Something one may want to contemplate: Veterinarians will use a similar type of regression analysis on performance measurements of horses running times as a criteria to prove or disprove the efficacy of a procedure, i.e. "Flipped Palate" surgery.

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by eddessaknight

Anyone had experience with any of Prof William Ziemba's materials including
place & show wagering in 'Beat The Race Track' ???
(& or The Efficiency Of Race Track Betting Markets)

Thanks in advance-

Regards,
eddessaknight

Many years ago when I was in graduate school I studied efficient market theory in studying econometrics (mathematical economics) and I believe that William Ziemba attempted to parallel with his book on horseracing handicapping that economic theory which is based on “perfect information and perfect competition.”

[facorsig]

Please see my review from Amazon.com for Efficiency of Racetrack Betting Markets:

http://www.amazon.com/Efficiency-Rac...5833345&sr=8-1

....and my review of Beat The Racetrack:

http://www.amazon.com/Beat-Racetrack...5833552&sr=8-2

Fred

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by facorsig

Please see my review from Amazon.com for Efficiency of Racetrack Betting Markets:

http://www.amazon.com/Efficiency-Rac...5833345&sr=8-1

....and my review of Beat The Racetrack:

http://www.amazon.com/Beat-Racetrack...5833552&sr=8-2

Fred

Fred, please help me understand the Amazon pricing of Dr. Zeimba’s two books which are priced at $2007 and $73 respectively on Amazon’s website. I have one of the books (I can’t remember which) stored away in my basement, but I haven’t looked at it for years. Do I have a rare treasure or not?

[facorsig]

I think those are prices for used books from individual sellers, not Amazon. Yes, could be worth going in the basement and moving the book from the moldy box to a lock box in the bank!

[The Judge]

I think there have been a couple of topics on book prices on this board one was "Book Increase In Value". Might be worth looking up.

[JackS]

I did read one of Ziembias books back in the '80s and did believe that he actually knew what he was talking about.
The problem I had with his methods was the tediousness of identifying playable pools and betting large amounts of money into them to take down a very small profit.
His emphisis was in place and show betting on super favorites (mostly) and show betting in perticular.
To paraphrase a bet his method might identify could have looked like this:
$2.60, $2.40 and $2.40 to show.
His method would have you playing into the show pool on this horse.
A legitimate method and advice no doubt, but betting large sums of money to take down very small profits just wasn't in me.
This book as written is not going to be appealing to many people. Ziembia was obviously a mathimatician but was he a handicapper?
I'm sure he was but probably to a lesser degree than many members of this forum.
I think I'll still recommend this "work" and perhaps some of the real handicappers around here can do some modifications and make it worthwhile.
.