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Old 05-02-2017, 10:53 PM   #1
Lemon Drop Husker
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R6 Churchill Oaks Day (5/5) Alysheba G2

1 1/16th Mile G2 Alysheba for 4YOs and upward $400K purse

Yeah, it certainly isn't the greatest field of older males, but it is an interesting field with solid wagering interest. Hopefully the track isn't a swamp.

Bird Song: He is always on or near the lead. Went over a mile for the first time last out, and faltered when the real running began. Drops back a 1/16th, as is likely needed, but he is far from the only pace in here. Leparoux back in the irons looks/sounds good, 2 for 3 at this track.

Breaking Lucky: Pretty crazy back races to look upon, but it simply comes down to this guy needing to be on or near the lead to be a factor in here. Castellano is certainly an upgrade, maybe the toughest read in the race.

El Huerfano: Paco climbs aboard for another Left Coast shipper with even more weird running lines. 6 1/2F last out to get more speed out of this guy? Bullet works rolling in, one can only assume they'll push to the front and try to wire this field of ...., front runners?

Honorable Duty: The IN FORM horse. Won his last 3 as he has really come into his own as a 5YO. Bested some rivals in his last two in here and has a solid record at Churchill. Jimmy Graham sticks, but his back to back $10+ Grades Stakes scores looks vulnerable in here.

December Seven: Yet another pace horse that absolutely has to have the lead to beat these IMO. Lanerie is back in the irons in which he likely rode this one to his best race. 20/1 ML is interesting for a guy who was favored over the just 2 back.

International Star: A former star in the making on the Derby trail has found things a lot tougher in the older male division. This guy really needs class relief, not a ship and race against these.

Flashy Jewel: Yep, you just asked for more pace, right? Welp, you got it here. Horse has earned a step up, but this probably doesn't fit into the best spot for this one. Then again, maybe this IS lone speed while others try to rate? Doubtful.

Noble Bird: Yes, yes, even more speed to add to the fire. Pegasus World Cup is an obvious toss, but his mystifying whipping in the New Orleans is hard to look past. Gets back to a track he likes, and does like wet going if need be. Biggest problem is if he can get well in a speed loaded race when a 'get well' race likely means a wire job for him? Need to see on the track and on the tote board.

American Freedom: Hey, did someone say speed? Well, welcome to the party AF. Hasn't ran since his runner up finish to Arrogate in last year's Travers. Anybody else in this field that would have finished within 13 lengths of Superman that day? Maybe not. Either way, you really want to play a 3/1 ML for a horse off an 8 month layoff leading into their 1st start of their 4YO season? Training lights out, and with Baffert he may be loaded for bear.

Behesht: A turf to dirt horse from across the pond that hasn't ran a number that would win a $10K claimer at Tampa in his 6 embarrassing finishes since the ship.

Fish Trappe Road: Interesting entry from the perspective of why 8.5 furlongs, and why at Churchill in a G2 on Derby Day? Reality is, he could sit a really really really good trip and clean up all the pieces at a 20/1 ML that will likely move upwards to 25 or 30/1.

SUMMARY:
Really tough and weird field. is in form, but may well be 3rd, 4th, maybe even 5th favorite. I think the may have a shot in here worth a play at 25/1 or better.
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Old 05-03-2017, 08:52 AM   #2
arw629
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Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker View Post
1 1/16th Mile G2 Alysheba for 4YOs and upward $400K purse

Yeah, it certainly isn't the greatest field of older males, but it is an interesting field with solid wagering interest. Hopefully the track isn't a swamp.

Bird Song: He is always on or near the lead. Went over a mile for the first time last out, and faltered when the real running began. Drops back a 1/16th, as is likely needed, but he is far from the only pace in here. Leparoux back in the irons looks/sounds good, 2 for 3 at this track.

Breaking Lucky: Pretty crazy back races to look upon, but it simply comes down to this guy needing to be on or near the lead to be a factor in here. Castellano is certainly an upgrade, maybe the toughest read in the race.

El Huerfano: Paco climbs aboard for another Left Coast shipper with even more weird running lines. 6 1/2F last out to get more speed out of this guy? Bullet works rolling in, one can only assume they'll push to the front and try to wire this field of ...., front runners?

Honorable Duty: The IN FORM horse. Won his last 3 as he has really come into his own as a 5YO. Bested some rivals in his last two in here and has a solid record at Churchill. Jimmy Graham sticks, but his back to back $10+ Grades Stakes scores looks vulnerable in here.

December Seven: Yet another pace horse that absolutely has to have the lead to beat these IMO. Lanerie is back in the irons in which he likely rode this one to his best race. 20/1 ML is interesting for a guy who was favored over the just 2 back.

International Star: A former star in the making on the Derby trail has found things a lot tougher in the older male division. This guy really needs class relief, not a ship and race against these.

Flashy Jewel: Yep, you just asked for more pace, right? Welp, you got it here. Horse has earned a step up, but this probably doesn't fit into the best spot for this one. Then again, maybe this IS lone speed while others try to rate? Doubtful.

Noble Bird: Yes, yes, even more speed to add to the fire. Pegasus World Cup is an obvious toss, but his mystifying whipping in the New Orleans is hard to look past. Gets back to a track he likes, and does like wet going if need be. Biggest problem is if he can get well in a speed loaded race when a 'get well' race likely means a wire job for him? Need to see on the track and on the tote board.

American Freedom: Hey, did someone say speed? Well, welcome to the party AF. Hasn't ran since his runner up finish to Arrogate in last year's Travers. Anybody else in this field that would have finished within 13 lengths of Superman that day? Maybe not. Either way, you really want to play a 3/1 ML for a horse off an 8 month layoff leading into their 1st start of their 4YO season? Training lights out, and with Baffert he may be loaded for bear.

Behesht: A turf to dirt horse from across the pond that hasn't ran a number that would win a $10K claimer at Tampa in his 6 embarrassing finishes since the ship.

Fish Trappe Road: Interesting entry from the perspective of why 8.5 furlongs, and why at Churchill in a G2 on Derby Day? Reality is, he could sit a really really really good trip and clean up all the pieces at a 20/1 ML that will likely move upwards to 25 or 30/1.

SUMMARY:
Really tough and weird field. is in form, but may well be 3rd, 4th, maybe even 5th favorite. I think the may have a shot in here worth a play at 25/1 or better.
I disagree that December Seven needs the lead to win. He's won from off the pace before. If you draw a line through his stinker in New Orleans he looks much better on paper. Why he didn't fire that day I don't know but he bounced back nicely at Keeneland. His Churchill races are his best races and stamina is his best friend. He is a very live Longshot imo....I highly doubt you get 20-1....he feels 10-1 in this race

Last edited by arw629; 05-03-2017 at 08:58 AM.
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Old 05-03-2017, 09:28 AM   #3
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Originally Posted by arw629 View Post
I disagree that December Seven needs the lead to win. He's won from off the pace before. If you draw a line through his stinker in New Orleans he looks much better on paper. Why he didn't fire that day I don't know but he bounced back nicely at Keeneland. His Churchill races are his best races and stamina is his best friend. He is a very live Longshot imo....I highly doubt you get 20-1....he feels 10-1 in this race
Yeah I agree, he's not a need the lead type at all. The only time he's been on the lead is a slow pace and with Lanerie up he will likely be sitting mid pack early. This race gave me a headache last night after about 45 minutes of handicapping. I kind of like Breaking Lucky, but would not want him under about 5 or 6-1.
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Old 05-03-2017, 10:00 AM   #4
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American Freedom for me. Baffert excels off the layoff, yes a ton of speed but this horse looks amazing right now and has been training lights out. Past running lines show he likes to be on the lead but in the Travers he still stayed on well for second. Should be an interesting race
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