Software ?'s

[SLAM DUNK(MW)]

I am an old fashioned, buy a racing form and handicap player. I play one track a day, maybe twice a week, win some, lose some have a good time, but just do not have the time to devote anything more into this game. Honestly I am quite content with this other than I read about some of you guys punching a few buttons and capping 20 tracks a day and I must admit I am jealous. It takes me a good 2 hours to fully handicap the west coast track. I only play the Southern California circuit because it is the only one I have any familiarity with. I hold my own, win some times lose sometimes. Rebates help push me in the black. Will not be quitting my day job anytime soon. My questions are as follows-I think these are generic questions that would apply to most guys like me who do not use nor have ever tried software.

* how many hours would it take to learn a good software system
* assuming I did so what would I gain. Better insight? Would the computer cap for me? Can I knock off a card in 5 minutes, 1 hour?
* how costly would this be in terms of initial invesment? in downloads?
* What are the chances I would find something good right off the bat?
* What are the chances I find that computer capping isn't for me?
* What are the chances I find that the computer doesn't help?

There is another thread about a contest and frankly I could care less what computer wins the contest. I am more interested in what a computer could tell me. In other words on a card that I have capped, I want to know whether people using the software are outcapping me and why. I am at the point where I do not even read the closer look or the analysis anymore. It is the same old tired nonsense and frankly I do better with a clear head making my own decisions. What I might be interested in is a program that can tell me something that I do not know, that is insightful and preferably eye opening. My question is this how do I find it? Buy 4 programs, spend 500 hours learning each? Any suggestions, comments I welcome. I realize that everyone is different, but curious in the experiences of others to help me gauge whether this is a step I might want to make.

[hurrikane]

Not enough information Slam,

how do you handicap? Speed, pace, form, trn, etc?

what type of races do you specialize in? Sprint, route, turf, all?

Any software can help you handicap faster. But can it handicap the way you like to handicap?

How computer literate are you? That will determine the learning curve.

[headhawg]

Slam,

You could use the search on this board to find users opinions on software. There also was a recent poll about who was using what.

Hurricane is right -- how sophisticated a user are you? All software has a learning curve, but it can be divided into two parts: 1) ease of use (how good is the interface) and 2) "expert" level usage (learning to get the most out of the software). I recently purchased a program that is very easy to use. However, I am definitely still in learning mode in terms of discovering all of what it can do.

Cost might be another factor. I feel that I purchased a great program at a great price.

These tips are of course referring to software tools, not black boxes. If you want one of those, read the current M. D. Kram Software thread or do a search.

In general, I think moving to software will at least save you time, and probably will help you uncover things you wouldn't have seen without it.

Good luck.

HH

[Larry Hamilton]

There is a huge downside, for some, though not for me. When you use a computer to handicap, you lose that ink all the way to your elbow which seems to be connected to horse flesh and horse flies in some unknown fashion. The computer is so clinical you will forget what is being bet on. In fact, it becomes a box of numbers--I cant even tell you who won any of the triple crown races this year or last.

Pick your poison carefully as the investment cost may be more than you bargain for.

[headhawg]

Originally posted by Larry Hamilton
There is a huge downside, for some, though not for me...

Pick your poison carefully as the investment cost may be more than you bargain for.

Yep, Larry, good point. I was taking it in the shorts when I started using the new program. Feeling more comfortable now, but it definitely is a different experience from pen and paper handicapping.

HH

[SLAM DUNK(MW)]

Originally posted by hurrikane@HTR
Not enough information Slam,

how do you handicap? Speed, pace, form, trn, etc?

what type of races do you specialize in? Sprint, route, turf, all?

Any software can help you handicap faster. But can it handicap the way you like to handicap?

How computer literate are you? That will determine the learning curve.

While I emphasize speed(Beyers), pace( I use the old quirin
45 110.2 in sprints and 111.2 144 in routes to come up with a Beyer style pace figure-on dirt races-works well in southern california not sure how well it would work on other circuits). I have done my own speed figures in the past(at least using par times) so I have a pretty good idea about what par time is for each level in southern california. I pretty much take everything into account style, race shape, jockey, trainer, post, form, class , winning spirit etc. I have never looked at weight. Recent years have taught me to spot "smart money" and I consider it seriously into the betting process. When I am going a lot and get to know the horses I feel I have a much better chance than when I am going sporadically, as I realize who you race against/beat is probably as important or more important than anything. I would say my strong suit would be dirt races int the 5.5 to 6.5 furlong range. Routes(2 turn 1 mile to 1 1/8) probably 2nd, then marathons- turf and elongated sprints are probably my weakest category though honestly, I haven't tracked performance via category for a number of years now.

I realize I can search the board and get a lot of input. It is such a major step, so I am interested in stories of people who have made the transition both good and bad. You do not have to bad mouth a software but something like I tried going towards software spent $4000 and ended up chucking it all or I used to struggle and found xyz and it gives me ..... which has transformed my game into a winning one etc.

ps I am not sure if anybody would be willing to cooperate but I would love to put up my own oddsline say every Saturday in Southern California and invite software vendors or users to pick it apart. For instance I might make the 3 horse 3-1 in my line and the user of xyz might tell me the horse has little chance for this reason. If the horse loses by 6 my eyes will open. If this happens on a consistent basis I probably would buy the software.

[John]

Slamdunk,
If you play west coast only [ I don't ] get a hold of rmania. He is a member and post on this board. rmania has a software for the west Coast only, and I hear a lot of good things about the software. e-mail him through this board. he appears to be a nice guy and will answer you.....goood luck.

[JustRalph]

" how many hours would it take to learn a good software system"

This should have been "how many weeks" if it is a good program.

Maybe you can remember how it was the first time you turned on a computer and had to learn how to get on the Internet. Then double it, unless you are a real numbers person. Larry is right....I rarely know the name of a horse I am betting on. I do know the post number etc.....probably some trainer stats but unless it is a notable stat.....many times I don't know the jock....? maybe that is a good thing....maybe not........ But I do love the speed of handicapping via computer. I dont' mean punching a button and it is done for me. The program I use allows me to "ask questions" based on several different numerical values and conditions. I would normally be wearing out a pencil. But the computer allows me to answer every question in about 30 seconds or less. most of the time, 5-10 seconds.

[SLAM DUNK(MW)]

Just a couple of notes. I play the west coast because that is all I have time for. If I could cap 4 tracks I would but by the time I get done with Santa Anita, I am usually spent. For me fatigue equals money down the toilet(both betting wise and capping wise). Obviously if a computer could do what I do(that I have a hard time swallowing-but who knows maybe they can do something as or more effective) I would handicap 40 tracks a day in minutes and spend the day betting race after race.

For you guys that do not look at trainers I just wonder how. A horse goes from the Jeff Mullins barn to the Scott Craigmyle barn and you have a 8/5 shot that just became 30-1. Vice versa and the 30-1 just became a 6-1 shot. Obviously an extreme example but big barn swithches take place all of the time. The same horse with Martin Pedroza or Matt Garcia up in a turf route should be maybe 10-1, put up Kent Desormeaux or Corey Nakatani and now you are looking at maybe 5-1 tops. Good trainers win races bad trainers do not. Good jockeys give horses better trips than bad jockeys do and get more out of them. Horse off of a 90 day layoff, does it matter if the trainer is Bobby Frankel or some guy who is 2 for his last 100 in layoff situations. To make such large omissions and still win is a testimony to rest of what you do(which is probably the type of stuff I would be looking for in a computer system) but I have a hard time believing that ignoring such is a good thing or has a positive impact on your overall play.


Just Ralph, without giving away the store what are some examples of questions you ask the computer that aid in your capping.

Final question are most successful computer users guys that do their own stuff or guys who use commercial software?

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by SLAM DUNK(MW)
Just Ralph, without giving away the store what are some examples of questions you ask the computer that aid in your capping.

Final question are most successful computer users guys that do their own stuff or guys who use commercial software?

I can analyze things just like your example. Pedroza versus any other jock, in turf routes, and even on a certain style horse etc.
E1 E2 etc.......or his success with a certain trainer and more.

I can match up pace lines from the last ten races (horse #1 I run a simulation choosing his last out. Horse #2 two back etc) on every horse and simulate the race. Many programs will do this.

I won't be giving away the store, everybody in here knows I use Equisim. You can check out the ES board at

http://thorotech.com/6/ubb.x?cdra=Y&s=451608406
or
www.thorotech.com

I don't know how to answer your last question.......there are guys on this board who do both. They seem to be the most successful in my opine. I also know that some use more than one program to compare notes and they make some bucks too. There are some database guys in here that can answer questions about jocks and horses, trainers too, that will blow your mind. Ask Larry what Martin Pedroza had for breakfast before his last stakes win and it wouldn't surprise me if he could tell you..........

[raybo]

<Final question are most successful computer users guys that do their own stuff or guys who use commercial software?>

This probably depends on who you're talking to. I'm sure that first of all, the most successful computer users would be just as successful either way, assuming they had the necessary computer skills to write their own "stuff". I really have doubts in a "bad" handicapper all of a sudden becoming a great one just because he bought some software and learned to use it. He's gonna have to know how to "handicap" first.

If you are doing well with your own style of handicapping and can handle the task of writing a spreadsheet with some automation or writing a stand-alone software program, my opinion is that you should write your own and automate the download process and handicapping/grading process to enable it to run several tracks a day, if you wish to make many plays per day. Personally, I believe that 1 or 2 tracks a day is about all one can handle and still do a good job of "digesting" the output of a software program. That, of course, is based on what I look at after the computer has done it's thing.

[TRM]

I'll throw my nickel's worth into the mix. I started out as a pen/paper capper……bought lots of those crappy mail order methods….read lots of literature on racing (Beyer Quinn etc…)….discovered computer capping………then back to pen/paper ……now finally wrote my own homegrown stuff.

Most of the software that I used was very good. Various programs that I have used are discussed on a daily basis on this board. However, it wasn't quite what I was looking for in a program(s). The decision for me to write my own was simple. I handicap races in various different ways. Alw/Stakes vs claimers, Turf vs. Dirt, and some races I may concentrate on speed, others form cycles or pace, some may involve spot plays or class. It just depends on how the race presents itself. I wanted a multi-function program, not just one stuck on pace or speed.

It's been a long rewarding yet frustrating road at times. When you develop your own, you will tend to become fully aware of all the pro's and con's of your software's limitations. But it also gives you the freedom to develop plays /angles that are not readily available to the public, or cannot be recognized without a computers aid. For example, one pace angle that I use to spot longshots, is to create velocity figures for the 3 hidden fractions in the race, (E2-E1, Stretch-E2, Final -Stretch) adjust these for beaten lengths, %of variant (perBrohamer) and track class if needed. I set this to look at the last 2 running lines only. What I look for is the potential improvement pattern. Eg 56.45 53.65 54.35 this line shows the gaining pattern and if it was the horses last race could tip of a pending big race next out. Also 56.45 52.35 52.45 indicates an even pattern which could also tip of an upcoming big race. Does this work all the time….No…. but often enough to catch some big ones.

One thing that you might do is obtain a demo version of some of the programs out there. Once you get somewhat familiar with it (there will be a definite learning curve involved) handicap some cards as you normally would and pick your horses. Then compare to the printouts.(check with the developer as to what printout(s)to use) Give it a fair shake though, only one day of handicapping won't tell you the whole story. You might just be surprised at how well….or not….that you do. Then the next hurdle becomes money management and bet structures……..

Life is short....so just have fun


TRM