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Old 12-16-2018, 01:15 PM   #46
TheOracle
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Originally Posted by Secondbest View Post
Keep on posting. I always like reading all your posts.
Hey Second

Thanks bro
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Old 12-16-2018, 01:18 PM   #47
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Originally Posted by Wizard of Odds View Post
That's okay, because many have posted items 1), 2) and 3) over recent years/tracks so we can do the comparison after you gather the info for your picks.

I think it would be very impressive if you made over 300 picks and your picks resulted in an ROI above 1.05.

On the other hand, if your picks resulted in an ROI between .75 and .90, then I believe you might want to rethink your world view of horse racing gambling because you would not be significantly outperforming baseline metrics and (without rebates) your picks would have resulted in a substantial long term loss.
Ok bro will look for the magic 300+ and will see what happens

Hahahaha lol

Thanks bro
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Old 12-16-2018, 02:10 PM   #48
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Ok bro will look for the magic 300+ and will see what happens

Hahahaha lol

Thanks bro
It probably goes without saying, but I'll say it anyway. It is only fair to count races where you made picks before they were run. So, if you said "yesterday all five 7/2 M/L odds at Aqueduct (of which 3 won) returned $19.40 on $10.00 total of bets", you can't include these five races in your records. Probably obvious, but I just wanted to be crystal clear and sorry if this might insult you.
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Old 12-16-2018, 02:40 PM   #49
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Originally Posted by Wizard of Odds View Post
It probably goes without saying, but I'll say it anyway. It is only fair to count races where you made picks before they were run. So, if you said "yesterday all five 7/2 M/L odds at Aqueduct (of which 3 won) returned $19.40 on $10.00 total of bets", you can't include these five races in your records. Probably obvious, but I just wanted to be crystal clear and sorry if this might insult you.
I get it and no that's not a pick but I do mention those as reminders to watch for later picks

No insult taken
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Old 12-16-2018, 02:57 PM   #50
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Originally Posted by Wizard of Odds View Post
It probably goes without saying, but I'll say it anyway. It is only fair to count races where you made picks before they were run. So, if you said "yesterday all five 7/2 M/L odds at Aqueduct (of which 3 won) returned $19.40 on $10.00 total of bets", you can't include these five races in your records. Probably obvious, but I just wanted to be crystal clear and sorry if this might insult you.

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Originally Posted by TheOracle View Post
I get it and no that's not a pick but I do mention those as reminders to watch for later picks

No insult taken
There’s a horse in the 7th race at Aqueduct today

#11 Gamblers Fallacy

If this horse wins and you’ve been reading this post then I won’t feel sorry for you
Hahahaha lol

Hey Wiz

I guess this goes as a pick?

Last edited by TheOracle; 12-16-2018 at 03:00 PM.
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Old 12-16-2018, 04:31 PM   #51
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There’s a horse in the 7th race at Aqueduct today

#11 Gamblers Fallacy

If this horse wins and you’ve been reading this post then I won’t feel sorry for you
Hahahaha lol

Hey Wiz

I guess this goes as a pick?

LOL
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Old 12-16-2018, 07:26 PM   #52
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Ok bro will look for the magic 300+ and will see what happens

Hahahaha lol

Thanks bro
And from the start of when you made picks through the present.
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Old 12-16-2018, 07:35 PM   #53
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It also would be interesting to track those horses you advise not to bet. Like "don't bet any 5/2 M/L favorites today because they did so well yesterday"

If these horses return an ROI of less than .6, that would be very impressive indeed.

On other hand, if there is no significant difference between the ROI of those horses you pick to bet versus the ROI of those you advise not to bet, then the conclusion is kinda self-explanatory.

Good Luck with the compilations!
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Old 12-16-2018, 08:49 PM   #54
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Looks like today will be Sloppy surface at Aqueduct

We have these 5/2 Morning Line Claimers today

Code:
1	12-16-2018	2nd race	6	Monteleone (KY)	Claiming	Six Furlongs	L Rice	5/2#	Dirt
2	12-16-2018	3rd race	1	Big Thicket (NY)	Claiming	One Mile	L Rice	5/2#	Dirt
3	12-16-2018	3rd race	1A	Fillet of Sole (KY)	Claiming	One Mile	J Servis	5/2#	Dirt
4	12-16-2018	5th race	1	Salty Smile (NY)	Claiming	Six Furlongs	R R Rodriguez	5/2#	Dirt
5	12-16-2018	6th race	5	Starship Zeus (KY)	Claiming	One Mile	C Baker	5/2#	Dirt
I am particularly interested in Rodriguez's horse in the 5th race
#1 Salty Smile

Let's see how he does today at the Big A!!!
The 5/2 Claimers on the Sloppy surface today only got 1 win going 1 for 4 today



However, playing across the board got you a 48% return per $2 win place and show wager

Rodriguez's horse #1 Salty Smile disappointed and was off the board in the 5th today

Congratulations to those who saw the #6 Monteleone play today you got $14.60 across the board!!!
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Old 12-16-2018, 09:13 PM   #55
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Can we agree that the "Official Compilation" is for win only?

Of course, it would be interesting to see the 'across the board' record as well.

Should there also be a running compilation of your 'Best Bets' like Salty Smile in the Aqueduct 5th race today?


Best,

Wiz
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Old 12-16-2018, 09:19 PM   #56
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Originally Posted by Wizard of Odds View Post
Can we agree that the "Official Compilation" is for win only?

Of course, it would be interesting to see the 'across the board' record as well.


Best,

Wiz
Yeah I was thinking of that suppose the across the board ROI is better than the win ROI would that not count?

Much of what I like to do is across the board, not just win, my thinking is that you don't have to necessarily pick winners to make money

Also does BRIS and the other folks keep track of their across the board returns?

Last edited by TheOracle; 12-16-2018 at 09:28 PM.
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Old 12-16-2018, 09:27 PM   #57
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Yeah I was thinking of that suppose the across the board ROI is better than the win ROI would that not count?

Much of what I like to do is across the board not just win my thinking is that you don't have to pick winners to make money

Also does BRIS and the other folks keep track of their across the board returns?

How about you keep track both ways? Of course the 'across the board' hit rate will be much higher than for just win, but over the long run, the expected ROI will be about the same. Not exactly the same, but similar.
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Old 12-17-2018, 10:35 AM   #58
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I'd just like to point out that if your long term win ROI were .83 and your long term 'across the board' ROI were .94, then your optimal betting strategy (aside from, perhaps, not betting) would be to bet only Place and Show where you would be around break-even. However, I think this scenario is unlikely. If this were true, then you want to look at the ROI for the Place and Show slots separately.

Another consideration is that the Place and (especially) Show pools have much less money in them than the Win pool. Each dollar you bet in the Place and Show pool has has a greater chance of lowering the payout price. For example, $200 bet to Show in a Turf Paradise race might lower the payout from $3.00 to $2.80. This effect alone would lower the expected future ROI from what you might have seen from your long-term historical studies when you actually tried to make money from your ideas.
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Old 12-19-2018, 12:40 PM   #59
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Originally Posted by Wizard of Odds View Post
I'd just like to point out that if your long term win ROI were .83 and your long term 'across the board' ROI were .94, then your optimal betting strategy (aside from, perhaps, not betting) would be to bet only Place and Show where you would be around break-even. However, I think this scenario is unlikely. If this were true, then you want to look at the ROI for the Place and Show slots separately.

Another consideration is that the Place and (especially) Show pools have much less money in them than the Win pool. Each dollar you bet in the Place and Show pool has has a greater chance of lowering the payout price. For example, $200 bet to Show in a Turf Paradise race might lower the payout from $3.00 to $2.80. This effect alone would lower the expected future ROI from what you might have seen from your long-term historical studies when you actually tried to make money from your ideas.
Hey Wiz

Give me a few days time to come up with this
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Old 12-19-2018, 01:06 PM   #60
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Hey Wiz

Give me a few days time to come up with this
Of course ... Hope it shows BIG BUCKS!
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