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Originally Posted by OverlayHunter
Raybo, could you please explain the "odds spreads" you refer to and how to do the calculations.
Thanks.
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I've tried to explain this in previous posts, but, it's almost impossible to do.
I don't use a formula (mathematical calculation) to arrive at an "expected" minimum payout. I've looked at, literally, thousands of superfecta payouts at a select number of tracks, over the years since becoming a superfecta player. I have gained the ability to look at the lowest 4 "near post time" odds on my proposed superfecta ticket, combined with a particular track's normal pool size (the pool size varies according to the type of race, number of entries, which race on the card it is, etc., etc.), and a perception of what type of tickets the public tends to play in these races, to estimate what the lowest possible payout will be, if my ticket hits. Odds are not all that must be considered either. Near post time odds "rankings" must also be considered (many super players will box the top 4 or 5 lowest odds, at or near post time, which means that if 1 or 2 horses, on your proposed ticket, are getting most of the play and you have the other 3 or 4 lowest odds horses on your ticket also, and they are in the top 4 or 5 ranked post time odds set, then the minimum payout will be lower than you would normally think, for that particular odds spread.
My "minimum expected payout" is "calculated", for lack of a better term, in my brain, not through a mathematical formula, per se. Experience, in seeing odds spreads and rankings vs pool sizes vs particular track players' wagering tendencies, enables me to pretty accurately determine if a super will pay my "minimum" when I hit. I fudge, to my advantage, to help insure that the "minimum" is achieved. Sure, I "miscalculate" from time to time and don't get the minimum, but, I also "miscalculate" and get more than the minimum, so, it's pretty much a wash. I try to err, to my advantage, by fudging my minimum expected payout a bit.
The key is to do lots of research, in order to gain the ability to estimate that "minimum" expected payout, and be disciplined in your handicapping and wagering methods. Consistency is all important!
It's the same for WPS or any of the other wager types. You have to gain the experience, track your hit rate and average payout, long term, and remain disciplined in your handicapping and wagering methods.
