Playing to cash, or score, on Multi-leg bets

[BombsAway Bob]

Structuring Multi-Leg Wagers- Playing to Cash...or Win?

I'm hoping to get others opinions on this topic.

When you sit down to put a Multi-race ticket together(DD,P3,P4), do you:

1.)Overview the entire sequence before handicapping, to see if there's odds-on faves likely?
2.)Do you check ML odds before,during,or After you've handicapped the sequence?
3.)Do you Handicap the races starting with the first or last leg?
4.)Do you have a pre-set ticket $$ limit?
5.)Do you just want to cash, regardless of likely odds, or look to put a more aggressive ticket together, even at the risk of getting 'whacked' by a fave along the way(A.K.A.: taking a stand against a fave somewhere)?
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Personally, after trial, error, & watching how payouts are usually affected by ML odds on multi-race wagers,I
1.) Always do an overview of the 2-3-4 leg sequence. Are they fields of 8-8-5-10? 6-6-6-6?
Are there a few horses that "jump off the page",via Big Beyer Edges, dropdowns, connections?
2.) Originally, I didn't want to be 'influenced' by the ML odds. Then, I realized that 70% of tickets
will key the first/second ML choice deeper into the sequence. Take advantage of this edge!
3.) Personally, I ALWAY handicap a sequence beginning with the LAST LEG first! I want to know how many horses can make the ticket PAY. If you don't have the last winner, the first 1-2-3 don't mean JACK! The majority of players starting with the first leg often wind up being 'forced' to single the last leg, & 90% of the time they settle on one of the top two ML choices. Beat'em,& your score will pay much more than the parley!
4.) Purists say "NO WAY"..I SAY, Why Not? If you're looking for action, playing a $12 Pick-3 with fields 0f 10-8-10, there's nothing wrong with a 2x1x6 ticket, as long as your single isn't a ML fave! Overall, it's better to just 'cap the sequence, then decide if it's in your bankroll. If you crop your ticket down, though,it's always better to drop the tepid fave from a leg you're deep in rather than the outsider you kinda can justify winning. Go for the Gusto!

5.) Monday/Tuesday nites @ Mountaineer, when they're the only T'Bred game going, I'm more apt to put a "BEE GEES"Pick-3 together (Bee Gees="Stayin'Alive"). California tracks seem more capable of getting an OK payout with chalky tix than NYRA, where you really need to beat chalk to score! I don't Single Odds-on Faves in the First Leg OR Last Leg of a P3/P4. Underlays are assured 85% of the time they score. I'll go Two deep if the chalk looks real tough, using a PRICE horse, NOT the second ML choice, as my 'other' horse.

What's Your Gameplan going in? DO YOU HAVE ONE?

(It's OK if you don't...have fun!)

[CBedo]

When I'm seriously handicapping, I will take a quick look at the card, and then if, and only if, there is a race that really jumps out at me as real value, I'll see what multi-race wagers are assembled around it first.

Then, after coming up with the contenders in each leg, I'll try to get an idea of not only their win probability (real odds), but what odds the public is likely to send them off. This isn't too exact; it's more just trying to see if I'm on all favorites, who the public is likely to bet, etc.

After I have some idea of value, I'll then structure my tickets to take advantage of value creating situations, while minimizing or elimininating very low probability (and usually underlayed) combinations. To me, it's not about cashing the ticket, it's about generating profits. If I feel I have a real live horse that will generate value, but haven't quite done all the other work, I'll use a key horse method in the pick 3s or doubles where I key a horse in each leg to my contenders in the others, making sure I don't use underlayed favorites as keys. This ensures that if my key horses win, I'll cash multiple times, and I'll need at least one key to cash the ticket.


Then, there are the times when I have a bit of extra time (like tonight at Mnr) that I didn't know I'd have, and handicap by the seat of my pants. Even though the process should be the same, I think since I have less confidence I subconsciously tend to move more towards trying to cash a ticket instead of getting value, not a good thing I know. These types of handicapping sessions tend to be the only times I'll play all my contenders by all my contenders, etc in the doubles and pick 3s.

[DeanT]

Really great topic Bob. Interested to see the responses!

Do you check ML odds before,during,or After you've handicapped the sequence?

For me ML is key, along with a key. If I can not key a horse and that horse is not ML chalk I will not take one. Seeing a potential 4-1 or 6-1 key grouped around a couple of other races with deep fields is what I like to play most, and almost without fail. If I do not stick to that, I feel I am betting with the masses and I am going to get raked to oblivion.

[CBedo]

Originally Posted by DeanT

Really great topic Bob. Interested to see the responses!



For me ML is key, along with a key. If I can not key a horse and that horse is not ML chalk I will not take one. Seeing a potential 4-1 or 6-1 key grouped around a couple of other races with deep fields is what I like to play most, and almost without fail. If I do not stick to that, I feel I am betting with the masses and I am going to get raked to oblivion.

You summarized what I was thinking much better than I did!

[ranchwest]

Depends on how deep your pockets are. If you have the bankroll and you're a good capper, multi-leg wagers are ideal for the score.

[GaryG]

I handicap all of the races first, without regard to betting. Need at least one vulnerable favorite and a key horse that will not be an odds-on favorite. I don't spread excessively.