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Old 12-13-2018, 09:37 PM   #706
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Just out --- Initial jobless claims for the week ending December 8 dropped by 27,000 to 206,000.


Very nice improvement after recent weakness, not sure if any one-time factors are impacting the number.
Would be curious as too the the of people announcing retirements...baby boomers are starting to come due....which means those jobless claims will fall somewhat...it does SKEW things...
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Old 12-14-2018, 05:56 AM   #707
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The Market is was flat this year due to China tensions and the Federal Reserve.

Has little and or nothing to do with individual performance as Reckless said and more to do with panic and illogical thinking.

Thank you Reckless.
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Old 12-14-2018, 08:36 AM   #708
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Would be curious as too the the of people announcing retirements...baby boomers are starting to come due....which means those jobless claims will fall somewhat...it does SKEW things...
I agree that demographics are very important, but I doubt the weekly change is explained by that (one week to the next---longer term, yes).
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Old 12-14-2018, 08:48 AM   #709
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The Market is was flat this year due to China tensions and the Federal Reserve.

Has little and or nothing to do with individual performance as Reckless said and more to do with A) panic and illogical thinking.

Thank you Reckless.
A) Maybe some of the upside was frenzied illogical buying? We rarely heard any complaints when CTAs and algos were buying.

More importantly, you correctly explained the weakness in the market by citing China tensions and the Fed* (main culprits, in my opinion). Why are those concerns illogical? Monetary policy trumps fiscal policy all day long.

*I'd expand your statement to include all the major central banks. Look at them collectively and you will see reverse QE underway for the first time....well ever. The outcome is unknowable. Sweden** suffered a financial crisis in the early 90s, expanded their balance sheet and then contracted it without disaster, but the expansion was a much more modest % of GDP vs the current situation.

**one of the templates for BB's QE
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Old 12-15-2018, 08:55 AM   #710
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i used to look at automobile registration statistics to figure out if a recession is close. but today even with a bigger population and the decrease in registrations over this decade we have the advent of UBER and LYFT, so i don't know how good those stats are because the decrease has been pretty small. but in Europe the number has taken a shellacking, down over 8% the last month.
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Old 12-15-2018, 06:39 PM   #711
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A) Maybe some of the upside was frenzied illogical buying? We rarely heard any complaints when CTAs and algos were buying.

More importantly, you correctly explained the weakness in the market by citing China tensions and the Fed* (main culprits, in my opinion). Why are those concerns illogical? Monetary policy trumps fiscal policy all day long.

*I'd expand your statement to include all the major central banks. Look at them collectively and you will see reverse QE underway for the first time....well ever. The outcome is unknowable. Sweden** suffered a financial crisis in the early 90s, expanded their balance sheet and then contracted it without disaster, but the expansion was a much more modest % of GDP vs the current situation.

**one of the templates for BB's QE
I have no respect for the Federal Reserve whatsoever.

My specific point against fear and illogical selling holds.

What are the alternative assets other than US stocks to buy?
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Old 12-17-2018, 04:47 PM   #712
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A) I have no respect for the Federal Reserve whatsoever.

B) My specific point against fear and illogical selling holds.

C) What are the alternative assets other than US stocks to buy?
A) Whether you respect the Fed or not*, you should respect the power of monetary policy.

B) If you believe Fed Funds have actually increased by 500 bps since the summer of 2014 (using a QE-adjusted Fed Funds rate), it doesn't seem illogical really. Was it illogical when the market was rallying? Maybe you thought it was - some did (I was in that camp over the past year or so).

C) It depends on how actively you manage your money. If you're active, t-bills yielding almost 2% aren't a bad thing.


*Much of the high levels of debt in financial system is due to an overly accommodative Fed (post the early 80s). If that's your point, we agree.
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Old 12-17-2018, 05:38 PM   #713
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A) Whether you respect the Fed or not*, you should respect the power of monetary policy.

B) If you believe Fed Funds have actually increased by 500 bps since the summer of 2014 (using a QE-adjusted Fed Funds rate), it doesn't seem illogical really. Was it illogical when the market was rallying? Maybe you thought it was - some did (I was in that camp over the past year or so).

C) It depends on how actively you manage your money. If you're active, t-bills yielding almost 2% aren't a bad thing.


*Much of the high levels of debt in financial system is due to an overly accommodative Fed (post the early 80s). If that's your point, we agree.
company's borrowed money for close to nothing and bought back stock with the money. now they have to service the debt at higher rates and payback what they owe. that fact alone could bring plenty of selling pressure on shares if the revenues haven't gone up enough. what we do know is that salaries and bonuses have gone crazy. and to top it all off the money that they have repatriated isn't coming back that cheap. should the dollar lose some value, we might not see that much of a decline. there is some strong s+p support sitting right beneath where this market closed today. should that crack, we could easily see another 2000 point decline on a technical basis.
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Old 12-17-2018, 05:54 PM   #714
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What is with these wild swings that seem to happen a few times a week the last few months? I don't ever remember this kind of craziness becoming almost normal in years past.
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Old 12-17-2018, 06:06 PM   #715
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What is with these wild swings that seem to happen a few times a week the last few months? I don't ever remember this kind of craziness becoming almost normal in years past.
today big traders trade with algorithms, if they signal the same way to the big boys, markets will move.

the way i look at markets is that someone always knows something more than i do. we could be in for a big knock down in price. i have no idea what the reason could possibly be, but someone with a lot of money might.
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Old 12-17-2018, 07:47 PM   #716
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today big traders trade with algorithms...
I just finished a very good book by Scott Patterson called Dark Pools. Got it at the library. It kind of ends where Flash Boys begins. (Another good read.) He goes into great detail about the geniuses behind all of these Algos and how it all got started. There's also alot of discussion about the "SOES bandits" in the 80s.

Yesterday is a good example of high speed manipulation. JNJ (Johnson & Johnson) reported some very bad news about asbestos in their baby powder. The stock opened about down 8-10 points and ended up down around 14.

I tried shorting JNJ three different times with 40¢ stops and got stopped out every time. Watching the stock on the ladder, or the level 2 you could see JNJ whipping around all over the place. I figured it was going lower and wanted to get short, but I kept getting whipped out. (I finally did get off one good trade in JNJ, but I had to take off my hard stop in order for it to work out.)

High frequency traders were having a field day in this stock. Since they trade in milliseconds (millionths of a second), and if they aren't currently trading in nanoseconds-billionths of a second, "they will be soon." There was even talk in Patterson's book of picoseconds trillionths of a second.

The HFT traders (and their ALGOS) can step in front of every trade, front run everyone from pennies to quarters and do it thousands of times a day.

JNJ was the perfect vehicle for HFT traders yesterday. With the stock whipping all over the place like that you know they were front running everybody. But they do it in all stocks everyday. Sure it may only be pennies at a time, but it adds up to millions at the end of the year.

There is a trading firm referred to in Dark Pools that never had a losing day.

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Old 12-17-2018, 09:05 PM   #717
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I just finished a very good book by Scott Patterson called Dark Pools. Got it at the library. It kind of ends where Flash Boys begins. (Another good read.) He goes into great detail about the geniuses behind all of these Algos and how it all got started. There's also alot of discussion about the "SOES bandits" in the 80s.

Yesterday is a good example of high speed manipulation. JNJ (Johnson & Johnson) reported some very bad news about asbestos in their baby powder. The stock opened about down 8-10 points and ended up down around 14.

I tried shorting JNJ three different times with 40¢ stops and got stopped out every time. Watching the stock on the ladder, or the level 2 you could see JNJ whipping around all over the place. I figured it was going lower and wanted to get short, but I kept getting whipped out. (I finally did get off one good trade in JNJ, but I had to take off my hard stop in order for it to work out.)

High frequency traders were having a field day in this stock. Since they trade in milliseconds (millionths of a second), and if they aren't currently trading in nanoseconds-billionths of a second, "they will be soon." There was even talk in Patterson's book of picoseconds trillionths of a second.

The HFT traders (and their ALGOS) can step in front of every trade, front run everyone from pennies to quarters and do it thousands of times a day.

JNJ was the perfect vehicle for HFT traders yesterday. With the stock whipping all over the place like that you know they were front running everybody. But they do it in all stocks everyday. Sure it may only be pennies at a time, but it adds up to millions at the end of the year.

There is a trading firm referred to in Dark Pools that never had a losing day.

i spent some time in a trading room back in the mid 80's, Block Trading, if i remember right. the room had about 25 traders, most were soes bandits but some guys were playing breakouts. at that time you could trade 1000 shares at a time on instanet and the specialist on the other side of you had to book the action.. many times you could find eight of a point spreads between the market makers. they charged $25 per trade back then.

at the end the rules changed and the market maker didn't have to put up 1000 shares. the traders in that room became gamblers, some took trades overnight and lost big on gap ups and gap downs. the room closed up about a year later.
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Old 12-17-2018, 09:13 PM   #718
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i spent some time in a trading room back in the mid 80's, Block Trading, if i remember right. the room had about 25 traders, most were soes bandits but some guys were playing breakouts. at that time you could trade 1000 shares at a time on instanet and the specialist on the other side of you had to book the action.. many times you could find eight of a point spreads between the market makers. they charged $25 per trade back then.

at the end the rules changed and the market maker didn't have to put up 1000 shares. the traders in that room became gamblers, some took trades overnight and lost big on gap ups and gap downs. the room closed up about a year later.
Moe it's Billionaire&Billionaires fighting over money.
How about that those saps!
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Old 12-18-2018, 06:59 AM   #719
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i didn't realize that the banks and financials are already down over 20% off the top with volume. these markets are in a bigger mess than i thought. slow and steady wins the race, when the latest tax cuts came in the market went on unsustainable steroids.

the fed can still cut rates to juice the market some more, but the day will come when that doesn't even work. it will be interesting what happens with the rates this Wednesday and how the markets react to that news.
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Old 12-18-2018, 08:57 AM   #720
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i didn't realize that the banks and financials are already down over 20% off the top with volume. these markets are in a bigger mess than i thought. slow and steady wins the race, when the latest tax cuts came in the market went on unsustainable steroids.

the fed can still cut rates to juice the market some more, but the day will come when that doesn't even work. it will be interesting what happens with the rates this Wednesday and how the markets react to that news.
I think a hike is already baked in. The statement about future hikes will be a big driver.
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