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Old 04-20-2018, 06:09 PM   #1
boys at tosconova
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Kentucky derby early thoughts

this KD seems more loaded with more talent than we've seen in years. however, that will not necessarly make it a great bettng race. the favorites here seem to stand out, and you're not just dealing with one horse here. as far as pecking order goes, it only gets a little gray after the first 1/3 of the field.

it' s very difficult to come up that longshot (should there be one) considering what the horse will have to overcome and beat this year. and by longshot i mean a horse not in the top 1/3 of the field.

when i handicap the derby i try and envision the race and how it's gonna break down. it's not that difficult to do for the most part. but its near impossible to play closers and accuratly call and predict the race doing that. and it just doesn't happen with the new system anymore. they just don't fire or never reach anymore because of it. there's no sprinters messing up the race and it's much less of a free for all. sure they can finish underneath in some scenarnios but this year your looking at lee type is going to have to beat some really solid horses to finish 2nd.

what really stinks betting wise this year is most of the contenters have tactical speed as well. that means any or all will be in great position this race, making it even harder for one of the 2/3 of the feld to beat out the top 1/3 of horses.

right now there are 3 standouts. audible, mendy and justy.

after that there's a solid grouping right behind.

bolt, good magic, magnum moon...after the top six things get a little grey..but theres still an order to them for the most part. i won't split hairs discussing it yet. and being that it's a little more cloudy it's harder to predict.

these are your fringe horses.....some closer to filling out the top ten and and some towards the bottom.

you can catacterise most of them as longshots, fill ins, fyers, closers and slower horses for the most part. sure i'm not talking about everyone of these 14 horses. but you're going to have to make decisions as you cannot play 1/2 the field. that is unless you part wheel triples and exactas.

what i'm saying is don't get distracted with tunnel vision on your longshot and thnk you're going to hot a $1500 exacta. play him with the horses that will prolly win. if your longshot does come it it will still pay 3 digits for the most part.

just imagine the top 3 not being in the race. i'm sure most would say it would be wide open if that were the case. but i'm not so sure. after the top three, the three>five horses underneath seem more solid than the rest of the field.

as for longshots. you really want to try an pick a horse trending up for a big race, or poised for an improvement. I like to try and find a horse that will be be in decent position as well and was competitive vs the horses in the top six

this year after going over things a few times i've landed on flameaway and solomini three weeks out without post positions....they check a few of my boxes and seem like longshots to take a flyer on. but even selecting them, not only do they have to beat horses that they just lost to, they have to beat the top three horses as well. sure,...you could like a couple of different horses than these two but these are my longshost as of writing this. i'm sure i can come up with one or two more but you have to make signifigant cuts.

in scanning over the probable field i find it very easy to X out several horses because the top 1/3 of this field is so strong. that doesn't mean one of these won't step up and run the race of his life, or benefit from a weird speed duel, or great trip somehow.... it just seems very unlikely they will. throw in the fact that any closer that finishes 5th in the KD is a success for the most part

hofburg
my boy jack
enticed
noble indy
vino rossi
quip
lone sailor
gronkowski
bravazzo
promises fufill
free drop billy
firenze fire
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Old 04-20-2018, 09:24 PM   #2
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Nice write up Boys. Been a long week and working this weekend so will have to get back to this when I'm fresh. One thing that stood out which I also do is x out the run lines of the top 6-7 horses and handicap the rest of the field as a separate race. It's a good practice.
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Old 04-21-2018, 04:49 AM   #3
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Nice write up! I will not leave out Lone Sailor underneath, training nice so far but wondering if its too fast?
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Old 04-21-2018, 05:59 AM   #4
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Lone Sailor made a huge jump with his 2nd in the LA Derby if you believe in the light bulb angle this horse could make another huge leap in the Ky derby. His latest workout which tied the record at Churchill for 5f bodes well for his chances to jump forward again, also has the right running style to clunk up.

Bravazo is no garbage horse. He was basically co favorite in the la derby. He just got off to a bad start and never was comfortable and eventually eased. Easy race to put a line through and his previous two races before that were really good. He also has the right running style to clunk up and got to respect the Calumet Farms / D. Wayne Lukas / Gary Stevens connections .
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Old 04-23-2018, 12:37 AM   #5
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noble indy

another light raced horse that has improved with every start. i will be a little less judgemental of him finishing 3rd to bravazzo and lone sailor in third lifetime start in a G2 because of the nice win with blinks in the la derby. horse also beat mississippi in an allow in 142 in his 2nd start. in any other derby this horse would be getting more buzz. horse should be in shouting distance as well. i won't talk you out of using him underneath as a longshot play with some teeth. don't know where to place him here, but his future does look bright


quip

quip is nice horse. third race off the bench and maybe there's more improvement coming? doesn't look likely going further imo. i hated the way he caved to magnum moon but what i didnt like more is that solomini and combatant almost closed in on him even though they didn't go fast early. good news is that he'll be forwardly placed and he ddn't have to run hard in the ark, as he already had a spot in the derby locked up. bad news is that he looks like he;ll be outfiinishsed by several. still anytime you have some tactical speed and/or in position you can hang around..at least for a while.




enticed

as i joked in the vino post. sure enticed his nice horse but this is the KD. not the wood or gotham. rossi went right by him and i can;t say i'm comepletely surprised he did. enticed just looks like he's a notch below. he should be up in the front of the middle of the pack so he might be in position. but in position for what? he looks like he'll be outfinished by many regardless



vino rossi

extra, extra, read all about it. haskins has this horse at #1 for two straight weeks.. it's amazing what a big throrograph # and sharp workouts can cloud a seasoned pro. imagine if the horse had a flowing mane and silkience conditioned coat...oh boy.....

let's face facts here. i pointed out before that this horse could have taken the tapwrit career path. but he didn't even do that. i thought this horse was poised for a big effort in the TB derby. i admit, i loved the horse, i thought he would win there. but he raced pretty poorly for the most part. this after being acclimated to the TB track in the previous race and a decent/nice 3rd place finish to flameaway 142 change.

i believe the truth is we all overvalued the horse. and after the dud in the TB derby, pletcher finds the easiest prep on the board in the wood. holy crap....that field was awful. you really couldn't pick any horse other than vino and enticed. even roman's 147 maiden winner took money not to mention restoring hope. people were also looking at cheap allowance horse off 3 months...lol

sure enough, he rumbles by enticed to win. but he didn;t even have to get better to do this. he just had to be better than the horses in the race, which he was. christ....... enticed isn't even that fast. i would go so far and say he's slower than chit vs the otherb top 3yr olds.....

right now you put him with the mid pack closers and hope the distance suits him more, and hope the closers behind him aren't better, which they may/may not be. even if he his he'll have to pass some great horses in front of him in the derby not named enticed. all i know is that i've played many wood horses dating back 10 years better than this horse and always got one of wonka's bad eggs in the derby. him winning the wood will not influence me in the slightest.





my boy jack

every year there's a big one run closer with nice races., and every year people play them. would i blame people for playing this one? no, he looks like one of the better closers. but that doesn't mean he'll reach. the horse is always coming though. took care of business in the lex to get in, wasn't overly impressive but he won. if it's an off track and you get a fast pace you can start to drool quite a bit, until then you're only allowed to dream and a likely 5th place finish at best


free drop billy

another one of your closers, and highly accomplised as a two yr old. i thought he might run a little bit better in the BG but needed a spooked sporting chance to get put up to third. he might be in just a little better psotion than some of the other closers in the derby, depending on post. still, i see a sub bar gotham against enticed who i don't like at all. which followed a nice 2nd place finish vs audible. nevertheless, he still might be coming late 4th off the bench for romans. you should get a huge price on him.



hofburg

i'm sure he''ll be on the list of many that wants a longshot, or wants to include a longshot. three raced limited data horse makes people like him even more becuse you don't know how good he is. throw in the fact that all you read is "he wouldn't be in here if he was good" mott angle. the promise and the unknown is better the known when it comes to capping, but it's easy to overboard a little. the fact is he had a ideal set up in ten fla derby to get 2nd. outside of audible, the 3 other figures were up close in fast fractions and catlick boy bled. it was still a nice race, and hofburg still had to run it, and while he still may get better he's just another closer that will be trying to pick up the pieces. i can't honestly say he's better than the other closers right now. but some bettors will be playing him like he is because all the angles allow for hope and to dream a little bigger.


lone sailor

say no to the closers and your wallet will love you. only really bad race was when he had the rail in the lecomte and was up close early and his first maiden start. his last race, the LA derby was his best, so he has that going for him. he shot the gap on the rail, and he breifly stalled there as the 99-1 shot starting backing up, but i don;t think it really effected him. in all actuality the horse didn't come of the rail until the stretch in honest fractions. and when he hit the stretch he was wavering left and right late and could not put away noble indy even after he cleared him. so there you have it. he had close to a perfect trip as you're ever going to get for a closer. and from the looks of it, i don't think the horses wants the distance. he does has some competitive race at two vs some of these. but most of those are fringe players.

promises fulfilled

the one thing they didn't need to do they did in the fla derby. did they have a choice? from the looks of it prolly not. now PF is in the derby off of this awful hard driven race. he was getting better up until the FLA derby as well. he caught good magic at the right time and had a walk in in the park in the FOY. it was still a nice race regardles sof the early fractions, but suspect because of it as well. it's always nice and be in position, but right now you have a speed horse that just isn't good enough or fast enough to beat these. i don't even know if he can mess up the good horses if he does leave and push again.

bravazzo

nice accomplished horse that ran a turd of a race in the LA derby. beat noble indy two back at 20-1. i really don't know wat else to say about him. doesn;t look like he wants to be inside at all, and i'm sure he's not as bad as his last race, but can you even chance it, or even expect a big run. the reality of the situation is that it looks like he bounced after barely upsetting win in soft fractions over 40-1 snapper sinclair in the risen star. boom, roasted.


firenze fire

don't want to invest too much time talking about this one. has some good races at two beating several in here. good magic, solomini, fdp, enticed. but the age change hasn't been kind to him. gotham and wood were servely lacking, not to mention not that strong of horses were in both. couple that with a horse that just doesn;t seem to go long and you have a big longshot.


gronkowski

a turf miler? i thought the days of this type of goof off was behind us? oh no,..let's take the european champ..or european horse wtfthat means?. other drawbacks is that he might be too cheap and slow. good news or bad news however you see it you'll get to see rob gronkowski and maybe tom brady hamming it up in the walk over. maybe they can instruct the horse for a better offensive game plan

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Old 04-23-2018, 06:24 AM   #6
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Note on TB Derby and Wood.

I have Vino a cut below the rest too but looking at these 2 races I have suspended all analysis related to the TB Derby. The slow pace and merry go round in which nobody made up any ground was a joke. The SF Davis was the better TB race and the derby was a bad time for Flameaway to try rating tactics. He is better than Quip and we witnessed that in the Blue Grass IMO as Good Magic had a tough time losing him. Vino Rosso also had run a lifetime top in the SF Davis and could have taken a step back in the TB Derby especially under those conditions. The Wood while being a 2nd rate haven for a while was run in a legitimate pace. As much as players highlight closers that finished solidly against slow paces I think it is equally important that a closer be able to have the talent to run down a fast pace. A collapsing front end doesn't guarantee you get there if the pace strands you too far back. A good closer has to have that internal clock NOT to be stranded. His internal splits were as good as any winner of the 9f preps.

Mendelssohn-132.6

Vino-133.3

Audible-134

Good Magic-134.4

Justify-135

Runaway Ghost-135.4

Magnum-135.8

Noble Indy-138

My boy Jack(projected to 9f)-138.4

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Old 04-23-2018, 07:54 PM   #7
BlueChip@DRF
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Cinco de Mayo winners from 1973 on:


1973 Secretariat
1979 Spectacular Bid
1984 Swale
1990 Unbridled
2001 Monarchos
2007 Street Sense
2012 I'll Have Another
2018 ???
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Old 04-23-2018, 08:24 PM   #8
Fred Mertz
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Originally Posted by BlueChip@DRF View Post
Cinco de Mayo winners from 1973 on:

2018 ???
Now we're talking. A good friend has a grandson named Magnus. That's worth $20 to win on Magnum Moon.

Any grays in the mix? Half the time Derby Day weather sucks.
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Old 04-23-2018, 08:33 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by Fred Mertz View Post
Now we're talking. A good friend has a grandson named Magnus. That's worth $20 to win on Magnum Moon.

Any grays in the mix? Half the time Derby Day weather sucks.
I loved these comics:

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Old 04-23-2018, 09:38 PM   #10
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Originally Posted by Fred Mertz View Post
Now we're talking. A good friend has a grandson named Magnus. That's worth $20 to win on Magnum Moon.

Any grays in the mix? Half the time Derby Day weather sucks.
Greyvitos, but he's waaaaay outside the bubble.
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Old 04-24-2018, 12:41 AM   #11
boys at tosconova
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Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer View Post
Note on TB Derby and Wood.

I have Vino a cut below the rest too but looking at these 2 races I have suspended all analysis related to the TB Derby. The slow pace and merry go round in which nobody made up any ground was a joke. The SF Davis was the better TB race and the derby was a bad time for Flameaway to try rating tactics. He is better than Quip and we witnessed that in the Blue Grass IMO as Good Magic had a tough time losing him. Vino Rosso also had run a lifetime top in the SF Davis and could have taken a step back in the TB Derby especially under those conditions. The Wood while being a 2nd rate haven for a while was run in a legitimate pace. As much as players highlight closers that finished solidly against slow paces I think it is equally important that a closer be able to have the talent to run down a fast pace. A collapsing front end doesn't guarantee you get there if the pace strands you too far back. A good closer has to have that internal clock NOT to be stranded. His internal splits were as good as any winner of the 9f preps.

Mendelssohn-132.6

Vino-133.3

Audible-134

Good Magic-134.4

Justify-135

Runaway Ghost-135.4

Magnum-135.8

Noble Indy-138

My boy Jack(projected to 9f)-138.4
old time revival was out there winging for more than 1/2 the race setting the early fast splits. i mean, OTR was ahead by 5-10L pushing himself.....lol

vino clearly outkicked enticed home and opened up late, but enticed was in the second spot in the fast splits, albeit well a behind second early on, so i don;t know how much he was used early but it was clearly more than vino.

i'm not going to yell at people for betting vino.,...but i just think he'll be more overvalued than he should be. i don;t buy into a regression in the TB derby.....i thin he's not good enough..but obv he could have had an off day...hahaha...............but this coupled with for lack of better words.."the wood curse" has me looking elsewhere

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Old 04-24-2018, 10:48 PM   #12
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it's coming..like a steven king thriller

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Old 04-25-2018, 04:55 AM   #13
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boys at tosconova crazy frikken kentucky derby eight- presented by zig zag papers and nick cage.

i wish i could deliver you a longshot. who knows. maybe one from the bottom of this group will get there. or maybe noble indy or my girl jackie will surprise. i will look for lustrious coats and class exuding gait and pass this on to you once i'm in the know.

all these previous derby favorites all the time makes he wish for chaos from the days of old. but sadly...i don't think it will happen. that doesn't mean the derby still won't play a pretty penny. sure it prolly won't be a super big $1k exacta. but it might be decent. and triples involving one of the fav's winning and 8/10 horses could play handsomely.

with furthere ado.


8-flameaway- why flameaway? why not my girl jackie or noble indy? good question. i reserve the rght to change #8...lol

i like flameaway "because of his pedigree and the breeding and what i've seen as a 2 yr old."....obv i'm pulling a ken roudolph here, and it's sounds like nonsense, because it is..but it doesn't mean it won't hit....

flameaway is a fighter. the horse puts out on the front end and hangs around all the time. he's prolly not good enough but he battles and should be in position. what can i say i'm a sucker for the 8th-12th betting choice and needed a horse to put here and a potential monster number if he finishes at least 2nd. realistically though, he prolly won't do it. but he really didn't go down without a fight vs good majik....so that does offer a lil hope and some ray of hope..


7-solomini-

here's a horse we're all expecting to run better than he has. maybe what he's given is all he's got? something tells me there's more in tank and all they need to do is find the missing key. . i can't place it, but I like the way he's been finishing races and he may just needs some jolt soda or a faster pace to swarm late. i can't see him running the same race 3x in a row..... his odds should be pretty high and the exotics should be as well. he got better in every race as a two yr old and this race will be his third off the bench at three. throw in baffert and it's an overlay imo. have to like the fact that he should be in mid pack as well, or maybe a lil forwardly placed for maximum effort. i won't go crazy but this is going to be the first time you'll get bomb squad odds on this horse.

6- bolt

if he had won the SA derby he would have been higher. he ran well but was no match for justy....and it wasn't like there were any horses good enough to catch him for 2nd in those soft fractions either. castellano jumping off him isn't a ringing endorsement as well. maybe if they go faster up front he'll close the gap better? certainly possible, but horse reminds me of several in the race. it's kind of uncanny how similar a few of these horses look imo. what if bolt doesn't get away strongly? that wouldn't bode well if he's behind many horses. you can't rule a mid pack start shuffled to a degree as well. the more i talk about him the more i'm discounting him. don't know he'll he'll be odds wise in exotics but i would think he'll be lower than he should be. still. his best race puts him in the thick of it. or at least the top 6/7 which is really nothing to be ashamed of in this class action field.

5-magnum moon

every race is better than the last. didn't fk around in the ark derby piking them in a slow fraction workout. good news is that he doesn't need the need lead, and you don't know how good he his yet. how can you knock the horse?. he looks like a serious playa with tactcal speed and potential untapped greatness. one thing people won't like is him being a little green in the deep stretch running diagonally. they'll also say he might not be fast enough for reasons not using him..but we really don't know that. could pletcher finish 1/2/3.....can't rule it out.


4- mendy

getting to be crunch time...well i'm putting the 2nd betting choice or maybe even co favorite 4th........what an upset mided capper i am...haaaaa

can't knock what's he's done. track record performance in the UAE should put the fear in everyone not using him. clearly no horse like this has every came out of the UAE and beat G1 juvy turfers like this horse,,,,,, i know he had to run those times but he's stll this years money burning UAE horse. plus,...you also have to deal with a different kind of dirt at CD (i don't know if that's true, but it prolly is and i need filler...haha) and will have to be a can of monster energy drink to wire this field should he try. some say he doesn't have to be on the lead. and he prolly doesn't... well,..that's good for him and his bettors bad for those that don't use him. sadly, you're gonna get a short price as well. no frikken value at all.......throw in the fact that it doesn't seem possible imo to run that UAE race at churchill. that race might be very tolling. can't deny he was being whipped in deep stretch to prolly go for the record. the horse was fully extended and regression does seem likely. + maybe he won't acclimate well? maybe post won't be kind?..and like i said, he might not take to the track at all......he's no slam dunk 1st or 2nd with this strong group even if conditions are great for him. i'll use him underneath but if he wins i prolly will only have a couple of savers in triples which i prolly won't hit anyway...hahaha....this horse is all kinds of awful value and risk vs reward.....
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Old 04-25-2018, 08:35 AM   #14
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Since the title is early thoughts, I like two of Pletcher's horses, Audible and then Vino Rossi. My reasoning for Audible is he seems to be showing continued improvement in five straight races, hopefully he doesn't back track. My record at KD is better at picking the runner-up.
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Old 04-25-2018, 11:23 AM   #15
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Talking

firenez is a real possible but this may well end up being a top three finish for pletcher and even a top four if none are a sch....
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