Who are you leaving out of the WIN spot your most worried about?

[PoloUK6108]

Originally Posted by menifee

Noble Indy. Huge odds. The Pletcher horse that everyone forgets. Got passed in the LA Derby and came back to win. I love when a horse does that. Not fast enough, but could take another step forward. Much better bet than Magnum Moon.

Worth noting he added first time blinkers, was passed by those two in the stretch, then battled back. My longshot

[jay68802]

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer

Tier 1-Mendelssohn, Justify, Bolt Doro

Tier 2-Vino Rosso, Audible

Tier 3-Magnum Moon, Good Magic

Tier 1: Mendelssohn, Justify, Audible

Tier 2: Bolt Doro, Magnum Moon

Tier 3: Good Magic, Vino Rosso

I am thinking that this race is going to pay very good. You have at least 8 runners that are going to take money, exacta and tri players should be in heaven.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by jay68802

Tier 1: Mendelssohn, Justify, Audible

Tier 2: Bolt Doro, Magnum Moon

Tier 3: Good Magic, Vino Rosso

I am thinking that this race is going to pay very good. You have at least 8 runners that are going to take money, exacta and tri players should be in heaven.

I agree about the latter. Splitting hairs has been so far an exercise in handicapping torture. Projecting odds helps. I think taking the purist view of "I am going to try and beat the favorite" is a mistake in the Derby these days. That's more of a Tuesday at Will Rogers or any other race and track approach. I have gotten merely saver tickets since teeing off on the 2011 and 2013 editions doing this. Greed made me a little too unrealistic! This year with contention running so deep I think as you do, smartly crafted plays and a little racing luck will be rewarded handsomely. Good luck Jay!

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by clicknow

Mendelssohn has run just fine on 3 different surfaces w/out lasix.

I see no reason to fix what ain't broke. He obviously hasn't needed any performance enhancing drugs and since some horses have a bad reaction to lasix, this would not be the time I would want to experiment if I were the owner.

Mendelssohn raced with Lasix in the BC Juvenile Turf.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Mendelssohn raced with Lasix in the BC Juvenile Turf.

You know that's not his only turf race right?

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer

You know that's not his only turf race right?

You know that the poster I was responding to suggested that he has never used Lasix in the past ("He obviously hasn't needed any performance enhancing drugs") right?

[Bennie]

Haven't updated since 2015 Derby but prior no horse won the Derby with an equipment change as a 3 year old. Small sample but blinkers on had been 18 starts 0-1-1 and blinkers off 10 starts 0-0-1. Just something to think about if you need to drop a horse or two from tier 1 to tier 2.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by Bennie

Haven't updated since 2015 Derby but prior no horse won the Derby with an equipment change as a 3 year old. Small sample but blinkers on had been 18 starts 0-1-1 and blinkers off 10 starts 0-0-1. Just something to think about if you need to drop a horse or two from tier 1 to tier 2.

Sea Hero took blinkers off for the 1993 Kentucky Derby and won at nearly 13-1.

[burnsy]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Mendelssohn raced with Lasix in the BC Juvenile Turf.

And if he gets it again..........it will be 2nd time Lasix which is usually a potent punch. Euros on it is another angle and off his last race he could move up again.

[Bennie]

Sea Hero raced as a 2yr. without blinkers and they were added as a 2 year old, they took them off again for the derby but that was not the first time change. I should have been a little clearer as to it being the first time equipment change as a 3 year old.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

You know that the poster I was responding to suggested that he has never used Lasix in the past ("He obviously hasn't needed any performance enhancing drugs") right?

Yeah I think the paranoia gives them a push to take it. I got ya.

[LoneF]

Originally Posted by jay68802

Tier 1: Mendelssohn, Justify, Audible

Tier 2: Bolt Doro, Magnum Moon

Tier 3: Good Magic, Vino Rosso

I am thinking that this race is going to pay very good. You have at least 8 runners that are going to take money, exacta and tri players should be in heaven.

Scratch Justify and Vino Rosso off your list and I think your on to something

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by Afleet

Looking at Vino, Bolt, Magnum, Free Drop on top at this time. I will be keying 4 or 5 on top-wanting to play the super, but it gets really pricey w/that many on top

Mine looks similar to yours except I also have Hofburg in there somewhere and probably not using Magnum on top. Free Drop Billy or Lone Sailor or even Noble Indy (if he even makes it into the stretch) look like good longshots to blow up exotics tickets

Until the draw it's all just projection for me. So no real decisions here yet.

[BlueChip@DRF]

From the top spot: Justify

Lightly raced, but its Baffert/Smith.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by BlueChip@DRF

Lightly raced, but its Baffert/Smith.

a bad combination in big races!