Who are you leaving out of the WIN spot your most worried about?

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by cj

Bodemeister wasn't eligible so he couldn't run against him. Also, even if it were an open race, he's 9, so I'm sure he's lost a few steps.

Bodemeister would be lucky to finish 3rd against this crop.


Not bad for an old warrior.

[LoneF]

Originally Posted by TheGarMan

As CJ pointed out, Ryan Moore may opt to stay closer to home and run the 1000 Guineas on the same day... Time will tell. Some would argue that picking up a US based jock with Derby experience could actually help Mendelsshon.

Either way, I am probably tossing him.

I agree with the general premise of what your saying about picking up a US based jockey, but the problem with that is that all the top jockeys already have mounts. I wouldn’t of minded to see Irad Ortiz pick up the mount on him but just read last night he is riding Hofburg. With that being said I have to believe Ryan Moore makes the trip. He made the trip to ride some longshot ( can’t remember the horses name off the top of my head ) in the Bluegrass. I would think with all the different races Ryan Moore has won that he would love to add the Kentucky Derby to the list and this may very well be the best chance he ever gets ....

On a side note .... I noticed Calvin Borel is starting to heat up. He rode a few winners today at Keeneland and I think those may have been his only mounts of the day. I am not saying I want to see him ride Mendelssohn, but considering his past derby magic I would think the connections of a hopeless longshot like Friesen Fire would have absolutely nothing to lose by rolling the dice with Calvin and hoping he can pull some Mine that Bird type stuff out of his hat. What other hope do they have ?

[Afleet]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Audible.


Beautiful horse. Visually impressive.


form rundown:

Debut StatebredMSW 6.5f - Green early, really moving well late.

2nd start StatebredMSW 1M- 4/5 fav. Deep stalking/closing style. Looked the winner for most of the race, gradually circled the field. JV kept busy, a bit too workman-like of an effort for a Derby winner. Looked like a paid workout.

3rd start OC 1M (off turf) (4 horse field) - 1/5 fav. Another paid workout. Even got a horse to open up and set a 'target'. Took Audible until entering the stretch to overtake. That rival did not go on in the stretch, but Audible did look visually impressive in the stretch run.

4th start G2 Holy Bull S. 1 1/16M - Wasn't really a top derby prep. Enticed didn't show up. I don't like Free Drop Billy. Castellano with a great ride on Audible- hard urged out of the gate, then floated others while entering the first turn, sat in 'the pocket' 3rd... A couple cheap horses opened up mid-race, no one else made a middle move(Enticed we mean you), and then Audible inherited the lead entering the stretch with only a harmless Free Drop Billy on his flank. He did look visually impressive in the stretch. Have to give him some credit. He fired. He does a nice job of maintaining his speed through the stretch run. As stated, I think his position in this race was better than we'll tend to see.

Derby Prep G1 Florida Derby 9F - Pace collapse. Catholic Boy didn't show up. Audible again was fortunate from the gate to establish position. Squandered that position on the backstretch while moving a bit sluggish, but that only helped him late in the race as any part of the field moving early was punished. Hofburg (My 'key' in the race) mirrored him with a slightly worse, but very similar 2nd. This isn't so much a note of less regarded horse, but of the pace dynamics. Another very nice stretch run from Audible. Watching him run through the stretch looked like a Derby winner.


Workouts - His mediocre cruising speed, and need to be kept busy is very evident in workouts. A typical workout also isn't long enough to show off his stretch running stamina (also not getting dream setups in workouts!). The Vino Rossi work I think revealed some things about Audible. And at the end(1:31) he was temporarily able to make a short move and close the gap when urged, although Vino Rossi held the advantage.
https://www.xbtv.com/video/audible/0_q6drxg68/


Final thoughts - I don't think he can get into a winning position in the Kentucky Derby. If he has an otherwise good trip, he can be rolling late and passing tired rivals. He scares me, but I can't use 'em all on top.

excellent write up!

[Afleet]

Medolssohn and Justify. Full disclosure-I have Mendolssohn in the futures pool 3.

[LoneF]

Originally Posted by Afleet

Medolssohn and Justify. Full disclosure-I have Mendolssohn in the futures pool 3.

So your not using Mendelssohn or Audible. ( I am using both ) and your not using Justify ( I am also not using him ) so just out of curiosity who are using ?

I noticed you mentioned Hofburg as your key to the Florida Derby. I am very high on Hofburg and even more so that Irad Ortiz will be riding him. I will be using him for sure.

Mendelssohn, Audible , Hofburg, Magnum Moon and Good Magic for me on top as of right now. Of course I have to wait for the post position draw to finalize my picks.

[SkunkApe]

Originally Posted by TheGarMan

Its a little soon to say, but I'm probably leaving out Mendelssohn.....

Why am I worried?

Because if a Breeders Cup Champion who won his last start by 18 lengths and is trained by one of the best in the world wins the Kentucky Derby, I will wonder how I could have been so freakin' stupid to ignore all the signs.




But you cannot bet them all. So for me he is shaping up to be a "tough pass"...

My thoughts are similar.

I’m completely confident in just playing Justify on top. I’ll probably throw in a bit of Audible, too, but mostly because he’s my “first love” this year. (Before I came to the light.)

But damn, if that goofy fast-tracking, filly-beating, doesn’t-even-know-when-to-slow-down Mendaalhij actually wins, I may have to reconsider my choice of hobbies.

[Afleet]

Originally Posted by LoneF

So your not using Mendelssohn or Audible. ( I am using both ) and your not using Justify ( I am also not using him ) so just out of curiosity who are using ?

I noticed you mentioned Hofburg as your key to the Florida Derby. I am very high on Hofburg and even more so that Irad Ortiz will be riding him. I will be using him for sure.

Mendelssohn, Audible , Hofburg, Magnum Moon and Good Magic for me on top as of right now. Of course I have to wait for the post position draw to finalize my picks.

there is still the draw to come and the weather factor. I like Mendolssohn but I already have him covered. If he wins I still cash and could cash big if another of the horses I boxed hit the exacta w/him.

Looking at Vino, Bolt, Magnum, Free Drop on top at this time. I will be keying 4 or 5 on top-wanting to play the super, but it gets really pricey w/that many on top

[LoneF]

Originally Posted by SkunkApe

My thoughts are similar.

I’m completely confident in just playing Justify on top. I’ll probably throw in a bit of Audible, too, but mostly because he’s my “first love” this year. (Before I came to the light.)

But damn, if that goofy fast-tracking, filly-beating, doesn’t-even-know-when-to-slow-down Mendaalhij actually wins, I may have to reconsider my choice of hobbies.

I assume by filly you mean Raaya ... She is better than 13 of the 14 stuffs that Justify has beaten in his illustrious career of 2 paid workouts and a match race against a horse that doesn’t want more than a mile and doesn’t have the early speed to do well in a match race scenario and than there was all those horses Mendelssohn beat in the BC Turf ...

[SkunkApe]

Originally Posted by LoneF

I assume by filly you mean Raaya ... She is better than 13 of the 14 stuffs that Justify has beaten in his illustrious career of 2 paid workouts and a match race against a horse that doesn’t want more than a mile and doesn’t have the early speed to do well in a match race scenario and than there was all those horses Mendelssohn beat in the BC Turf ...

Well, that should do it. Justify will lose for sure, now.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by LoneF

I am leaving Justify out of the win spot but not worried at all about that.

Bolt I am also leaving out of the win spot and he would probably be my next horse up if I added another horse to the win spot so that’s my answer.

You should bet this race very heavy then, I mean this, like one of your biggest plays all year.

You just eliminated a solid 20% probably of the money, if you can eliminate some of the non contenders your at 30%...with that type of advantage I would bet 2-3 times my normal bankroll.

[sammy the sage]

Mendelssohn....if he GETS the Big L...he's THE play...period...if he doesn't...then NOT on top...

Definitely NOT Mag. moon...wouldn't be surprised if he didn't even run...there's been many a surprise scratch over the years...and most of the time it's a Pletcher....just a historical observation....don't know anything this time around...

[clicknow]

Mendelssohn has run just fine on 3 different surfaces w/out lasix.

I see no reason to fix what ain't broke. He obviously hasn't needed any performance enhancing drugs and since some horses have a bad reaction to lasix, this would not be the time I would want to experiment if I were the owner.

[menifee]

Noble Indy. Huge odds. The Pletcher horse that everyone forgets. Got passed in the LA Derby and came back to win. I love when a horse does that. Not fast enough, but could take another step forward. Much better bet than Magnum Moon.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Tier 1-Mendelssohn, Justify, Bolt Doro

Tier 2-Vino Rosso, Audible

Tier 3-Magnum Moon, Good Magic

Haven't thought below this but have some ideas for later.

I think Mendy and Justify will be 4-1 and 5/2. Not betting them to win. Bolt Doro is next in line for a win bet. Here's a horse whose form cycle is practically identical to Good Magic's. Except he's being penalized for facing better competition. He's faced better, ran faster than everybody but Justify and Mendelssohn, is hitting that 3rd start cycle that produced his best race in the Frontrunner, which by my numbers is still the best performance of this crop, and he will be the forgotten horse in my odds sweet spot. But if he is lukewarm in the betting I will look elsewhere. The second I saw race then the chart of the Wood I liked Vino Rosso. But I don't like him so much more than Audible. I could bet either at double digit odds and I have them a cut below the top tier.

I will have includes in horizontals to cover but won't do so in race. My on top horses will be in the win slot and let the chips fall where they may. I could have a big P3-4 A ticket that includes 1 of Justify or Mendelssohn but not both. In race if anybody but my top 3 of Bolt, Vino, Audible win so be it. That's how I am playing this race!

[LoneF]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

You should bet this race very heavy then, I mean this, like one of your biggest plays all year.

You just eliminated a solid 20% probably of the money, if you can eliminate some of the non contenders your at 30%...with that type of advantage I would bet 2-3 times my normal bankroll.

I am going to bet a bigger percentage of my bankroll than I normally would on a derby. Partly because I have never been so confident in eliminating a favorite as I am in Justify and also because I have never been so confident in the 5 horses I have it narrowed down to and most likely with the enivitable scratches and bad post position draws that list will be narrowed down even further .

The difficult part is deciding how to bet. I can’t decide if I should reserve my heaviest action for vertical or horizontal plays.