Good Magic

[PoloUK6108]

Yup, my guts been rock solid since they crossed the wire at Keeneland. He'll be ready

[GMB@BP]

Timeform just doesnt have Good Magic that far behind, he easily could improve and win this race.

Its unlikely new top figs are earned in this race, I dont think any of these horses would be better at 10F rather than 9F. If the Beyer is bigger its because its a 10f grade 1....I dont think we see 130+ timeform, and if we do it would be a pretty special effort.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

Timeform just doesnt have Good Magic that far behind, he easily could improve and win this race.

Its unlikely new top figs are earned in this race, I dont think any of these horses would be better at 10F rather than 9F. If the Beyer is bigger its because its a 10f grade 1....I dont think we see 130+ timeform, and if we do it would be a pretty special effort.

Quit it.

We don't need half the board on the Magic Train.

[menifee]

Not fast enough to win this race. Horse is a grinder, doesn’t have that quick move or high cruising speed needed to win the Derby. Maybe a factor after they freshen for Belmont. Todd will probably win that race though.

[PoloUK6108]

Originally Posted by menifee

Not fast enough to win this race. Horse is a grinder, doesn’t have that quick move or high cruising speed needed to win the Derby. Maybe a factor after they freshen for Belmont. Todd will probably win that race though.

I'm not going to dig in to times, but I know he ran top 5 in BC juveniles..and not sure how much better of a move you could want. He never gets too far off and he always has first run on the closers..that was his 3rd race and his peak, on track to be peaking again...I can go on and on with angles on this horse. Maybe it's because he's been my pick since November, but I think I might have trouble coming up with as many for any of the others.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by PoloUK6108

I'm not going to dig in to times, but I know he ran top 5 in BC juveniles..and not sure how much better of a move you could want. He never gets too far off and he always has first run on the closers..that was his 3rd race and his peak, on track to be peaking again...I can go on and on with angles on this horse. Maybe it's because he's been my pick since November, but I think I might have trouble coming up with as many for any of the others.

two separate questions;

Is he capable of running a 'top' as fast as Justify et al.? -I don't know.

Is he capable of reaching a contending position approaching the far turn? - I think he is. He's done a nice job of reaching a contending position thus far. If anything, stretching out the distance is going to help Good Magic in that regard, -assuming nobody opens up on the field mid-race to blow it open.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

two separate questions;

Is he capable of running a 'top' as fast as Justify et al.? -I don't know.

Just throwing this out there taking the Santa Anita figures as is; it is also conceivable Justify bounces from the figures achieved in the Santa Anita. In fact, I'd bet on it. Few horses punch out back to back 107 BSFs.

[PowerUpPaynter]

gimme Vino Rosso over Good Magic.

Both have RAN sire line vis Curlin and both have Buckpasser-X but Vino has the fast closing fractions. I throw out Vino's Tampa races as the Tampa surface some horses like and some horses dont. I never trust anything that happens at Tampa.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

Just throwing this out there taking the Santa Anita figures as is; it is also conceivable Justify bounces from the figures achieved in the Santa Anita. In fact, I'd bet on it. Few horses punch out back to back 107 BSFs.

unless they are freaks... can anyone 100% outrule this horse might just be a freak? I mean he might just be

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by PoloUK6108

I'm not going to dig in to times, but I know he ran top 5 in BC juveniles..and not sure how much better of a move you could want. He never gets too far off and he always has first run on the closers..that was his 3rd race and his peak, on track to be peaking again...I can go on and on with angles on this horse. Maybe it's because he's been my pick since November, but I think I might have trouble coming up with as many for any of the others.

Good Magic breaks sharply in every race (even broke on top in the BC Juvenile) and has to be gathered up to settle under a good hold down the backstretch, so there is plenty of cruising speed if the jock needs to use it. However, the horse relaxes beautifully which is why he is usually in a good spot to get first run as you said.

The main concern with Good Magic at this point is the ugly swap back to his left lead in deep stretch in the Blue Grass. Workouts etc. will hopefully tell the tale of how he is doing physically. On form everything seems to be in place.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

gimme Vino Rosso over Good Magic.

Both have RAN sire line vis Curlin and both have Buckpasser-X but Vino has the fast closing fractions. I throw out Vino's Tampa races as the Tampa surface some horses like and some horses dont. I never trust anything that happens at Tampa.

I'm inclined to agree. I originally thought the Wood was a little more honest pace but the 3/4 call was pretty much the same as the Bluegrass. I have a feeling both horses will be in a good spot for the charge provided the trip goes well. I already bet them both in the Future pools. It's just a matter of which one I use more Derby day which might boil down to how the horse looks on the track and the post draw. I'll prefer a Vino/Bolt since I accidentally made a $3 box in Pool 3 that pays 860-1.

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

unless they are freaks... can anyone 100% outrule this horse might just be a freak? I mean he might just be

I cannot rule it out but he doesn't look like an AP to me... and AP had to really work to win the Derby. We've seen this game before... Dunkirk, Bellamy Road, Goldencents... and on and on. Since freaks are so rare I'm going to bet on the assumption he isn't a freak. If I'm wrong then I will miss out on a 5-2 favorite and $20 exacta then wheel him in the Preakness.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

I'm inclined to agree. I originally thought the Wood was a little more honest pace but the 3/4 call was pretty much the same as the Bluegrass. I have a feeling both horses will be in a good spot for the charge provided the trip goes well. I already bet them both in the Future pools. It's just a matter of which one I use more Derby day which might boil down to how the horse looks on the track and the post draw. I'll prefer a Vino/Bolt since I accidentally made a $3 box in Pool 3 that pays 860-1.



I cannot rule it out but he doesn't look like an AP to me... and AP had to really work to win the Derby. We've seen this game before... Dunkirk, Bellamy Road, Goldencents... and on and on. Since freaks are so rare I'm going to bet on the assumption he isn't a freak. If I'm wrong then I will miss out on a 5-2 favorite and $20 exacta then wheel him in the Preakness.

furthermore go rewatch Vino's Tampa races there are times he looks like someone walking on ice. What happens in tampa stays in tampa... quirky surface...

[papillon]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

gimme Vino Rosso over Good Magic.

Both have RAN sire line vis Curlin and both have Buckpasser-X but Vino has the fast closing fractions. I throw out Vino's Tampa races as the Tampa surface some horses like and some horses dont. I never trust anything that happens at Tampa.

Vino Rosso is going to be a tired horse in the starting gate. The trend for horses coming in with as many races in a row as he's had is not good. I wouldn't qualify this as a curse, just a fact of life, whether horses or humans. Racing month in, month out takes a toll, and tired atheletes run like tired atheletes.

I would have liked a less strong Wood at least.

Good Magic fits the ideal race schedule much better. He shouldn't be tired when he goes to the post.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Originally Posted by papillon

Vino Rosso is going to be a tired horse in the starting gate. The trend for horses coming in with as many races in a row as he's had is not good. I wouldn't qualify this as a curse, just a fact of life, whether horses or humans. Racing month in, month out takes a toll, and tired atheletes run like tired atheletes.

I would have liked a less strong Wood at least.

Good Magic fits the ideal race schedule much better. He shouldn't be tired when he goes to the post.

10 of the derby winners this century have had 3 or 4 starts as 3 year olds heading into the derby. Vino has 3. If 3 races is too much for him he dont deserve to win or run a good race.

[PoloUK6108]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Good Magic breaks sharply in every race (even broke on top in the BC Juvenile) and has to be gathered up to settle under a good hold down the backstretch, so there is plenty of cruising speed if the jock needs to use it. However, the horse relaxes beautifully which is why he is usually in a good spot to get first run as you said.

The main concern with Good Magic at this point is the ugly swap back to his left lead in deep stretch in the Blue Grass. Workouts etc. will hopefully tell the tale of how he is doing physically. On form everything seems to be in place.

FWIW, I saw a Chad quote saying GM got "distracted" near the wire and "goof off" or something along those lines was also in there. Point being he shrugged it off. But like I said, FWIW.