Pace Projection

[Robert Fischer]

Have to assume Promises Fulfilled will try to wire the field.

How fast will Mendelssohn, Magnum Moon and Justify be early?
These guys don't have to heat up the pace, but they could.

Originally Posted by minethatbird08

With Repole as part owner of noble Indy and Vino Rosso any chance he can use Noble Indy as a rabbit?

Makes sense. Noble Indy figures to be a pace factor either way. (Pletcher really has a mulit-tiered opportunity here, with Noble Indy softening the pace, Magnum Moon making first run, and Vino Rossi and Audible rolling late).


Want to see who is in the gate between Bravazo, , Reride, Snapper Sinclair, Sporting Chance, Restoring Hope, Greyvitos...

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Have to assume Promises Fulfilled will try to wire the field.

How fast will Mendelssohn, Magnum Moon and Justify be early?
These guys don't have to heat up the pace, but they could.


Makes sense. Noble Indy figures to be a pace factor either way. (Pletcher really has a mulit-tiered opportunity here, with Noble Indy softening the pace, Magnum Moon making first run, and Vino Rossi and Audible rolling late).


Want to see who is in the gate between Bravazo, , Reride, Snapper Sinclair, Sporting Chance, Restoring Hope, Greyvitos...

I'm not so sure Noble Indy is going to go to the front either. He darn near got hosed tracking a 141-1 bomber then hit the 3/4 pole in about the same time as every other contender currently with a gate. His Brisnet pace figures somewhat resemble those of Battle of Midway from the Santa Anita last year and I could see him fall into the trifecta at the end if a few big contenders fail to fire.

Justify flew in his allowance. His mile fraction was two seconds slower in the Santa Anita. It would appear he can rate or lead the pack. I suspect he would be most dangerous being toward the front. Moon pretty much ran the same race as Justify albeit a little slower to the 3/4 pole. I doubt either will heat things up dramatically. Aiden O'Brien did mention kickback concerns on the Euro poly so perhaps Mendelssohn will be most likely to be forwardly placed however his 3/4 fraction is just like all the others.

I'll throw out the possibility Bolt could attempt a theft. He hasn't been able to pass anyone in the lane this year. He ran some solid fractions sitting behind the 101 in the FrontRuner. If you buy Santa Anita is a bog this year then he held his own behind Justify. He's got enough speed to hold off challengers in the stretch if he's there. I don't think he can win it sitting behind fast closing ponies. If he draws an inside post then I could see it. If he draws the auxiliary gate then this strategy has little chance.

[cj]

TimeformUS shows two horses with a pretty bid edge on the rest of the probables...Justify and Promises Fulfilled.

[papillon]

Originally Posted by MNslappy

I loved Shackleford, still one of my favorite horses. Really thought he might just pull it off in the Derby that year when they turned for home, but he couldn't hang on.

I remember the reports before the races on him were always, "he's all washed out, looks terrible" and more often than not he'd just go out there sweating his ass off and run his race anyway. If I'm not mistaken, I'm pretty sure I've heard Promises Fulfilled has the same penchant for getting lathered up before races. Something to keep in mind if (((they))) try to talk you off of him.

I kind of like Promises Fulfilled, not to win, but I think he's got a shot to at least hang on for a piece of the superfecta like Shack did.

If Promises Fulfilled can keep the opening quarter to 23, he has a shot to hang on to the lead for 7 or 8f like his papa, esp if he isn't running on the type of rail that Shack was.

However, I also agree with the poster that pointed out these horses are all basically the same speed for 6 to 7f, and that those behind the lead haven't been able to pass the leader because they are running at the same speed, not because they aren't as good. If we're right about that, Promises may be able to hold on longer just because no one will be making up ground on him.

The real difference between these horses is when their individual lactic acid thresholds kick, it is always the same unless a horse can set 24s or higher all the way around. When each horse hits that threshold most shut down immediately, esp if they've hurt because of it previously. When that happens, if the pain was bad enough or it happened consecutively before, they shut down when they see the place it happened, even on a different track.

With horses all running the same speed, the "pulling away" in the stretch will be because those behind hit that threshold, while the leader held on a little longer.

The race seems like it will play very much like a race in strong crosswinds. If you loose the rump of the horse in front of you (or the wheel in cycling) your race is over, as is every horse's (rider's) behind you. If so, the horse will need to be on the lead or never more than a half length behind, to be close enough to take advantage of wall hitting.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by cj

TimeformUS shows two horses with a pretty bid edge on the rest of the probables...Justify and Promises Fulfilled.

Doesn't Noble Indy's pace figures from the Louisiana Derby put him near those two?

He added blinkers for the first time in that race and broke very sharply and had to be hard held to lay off the 99-1 pacesetter heading into the first turn. Even then, once they hit the backstretch the jock had to work to keep him from engaging to early, hard held and feet on the dashboard.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Doesn't Noble Indy's pace figures from the Louisiana Derby put him near those two?

He added blinkers for the first time in that race and broke very sharply and had to be hard held to lay off the 99-1 pacesetter heading into the first turn. Even then, once they hit the backstretch the jock had to work to keep him from engaging to early, hard held and feet on the dashboard.

Yes, if using that one race he'd be right there. We use multiple races, but when there is an equipment change starting over might not be a bad idea!

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by cj

TimeformUS shows two horses with a pretty bid edge on the rest of the probables...Justify and Promises Fulfilled.

looks accurate.



For all the talk of the pace, in this type of race, talent and Stamina should prove out.

Last time we had a pace collapse was 2013. Rain. Mike Smith wanted the spotlight with Palace Malice(who turned out to be a decent horse) and opened up, Verrazano, Goldencents, Vyjack and friends chased hot and/or wide. Trifecta came from 15th, 16th, 17th early.

Justify can set the pace, and he will if it's vacant, but there's no need to use horse before the backstretch.
Mike Smith is a great jockey. There's room to criticize some of his rides, where he tries to be too 'creative', but he's been a winner. I have no right to comment on his tactics, but as a fan, I'd prefer Justify not open up on the first turn and be stationed 5-wide 'to relax' the horse. This is one of those mounts where you just try to guide and be as comfortable a ~110lbs as you can.

Rather see more Easy Goer (1989 Gotham don't fall asleep from the 'easy going' race call)

YouTube

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YouTube

and less Danzing Candy. 2016 Nyquist. Danzing Candy Mike Smith.

Derby is a place for 'masterful' 'creative...' long shot rides, and 'efficient' favorite and contender rides.

I like Promises Fulfilled as an animal, and as a son of Shackleford for Dale Romans. I don't like his chances of being around at the finish. He's a long shot, so if you like him - Go for it! If you are looking for the angle to bet-back value who ran against the grain (hot pace Florida Derby), he at least makes that short list.

I can envision a pace where Justify sits within himself, just behind and outside Promises Fulfilled until they have gone 4f or so, and then gradually begins to go past that one. That gives him first run, and the Vino Rossis Good Magics, Bolt d'Oros, Mendohlssons, Audibles, et al. too much to do to reel him in.

[Blenheim]

You’re not factoring in which horse will improve the most and by how many lengths.


I’ve got Noble Indy improving several lengths. If he takes to the track, gets a good post position, gets a good start, (none of which are guaranteed) I figure he can press and sit tight behind the bums out front. When the bums out front peel off he should be right there, similar to the Louisiana, but this time he’ll be in better shape able to hold his speed further. Come the three-sixteenths I figure he should be in front and the horse to catch and he ain’t gonna' lay down!


The question is, who is gonna' catch him? Can Audible get through? Will Audibe stay close early compromising his late kick? Does Hofburg have the late turn of foot to catch up?

[PowerUpPaynter]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...#gid=553067646


Paces of the century

[GMB@BP]

I did a little research using Timeform charts going back to 2012.

The Derby has almost alway fallen apart pace wise to final time was, dramatically so. In almost every instance the pace is very fast yet the final times are somewhat pedestrian. Closers should be winning these races yet only Orb, the favorite in the race that year, was able to capitalize on an off track, and he never reproduced that form

The only pace and final time that held together was American Pharoah and he happened to be near one of the slower paces.

So expecting a deep closer to capitalize on a collapsing pace is a bit unrealistic and a bad bet. I would imagine no more than 5 lengths should separate the leader (unless he runs off) and the first place horse at the 6F mark and no mare than 2-3 lengths at the top of the stretch. Even Ill Have Another who made up 3.5 lengths only had to catch Bodemeister who had opened up.

Here are the Timeform leader numbers and where the leader was at the 6F 1M and Final for the race in terms of beaten lengths.

Ill Have Ano 151 (6.5) 135 (3.5) 121
Orb 146 (14.0) 129 (4.5) 118
Cal Chrome 127 (0.75) 118 (0) 117
Amer Pharo 132 (1.5) 130 (0) 126
Nyquist 145 (2) 127 (0) 119
Always Dre 141 (0) 130 (0) 121

So I guess I am not agreeing that the paces have changed with the new point system. The paces have been very fast with slowing final times. Not many are closing, you must be in position at the top of the stretch or you probably are not winning.

It feels like there are only 6-7 horses in this field that will be able to cope with that fast of a pace, be in position, and still finish half way decent.

[SkunkApe]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

It feels like there are only 6-7 horses in this field that will be able to cope with that fast of a pace, be in position, and still finish half way decent.

Good post.

Im curious as to who you consider the 6-7...

Justify
Bolt
Mendelssohn
Audible
Good Magic?
?
?

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by SkunkApe

Good post.

Im curious as to who you consider the 6-7...

Justify
Bolt
Mendelssohn
Audible
Good Magic?
?
?

Thats a good question, I am not there yet.

I would like to believe Mendelssohn but honest the gold rail completely clouds his last race, but the class and pedigree is there so I would say yes.

Good Magic as never been in a race with a fast pace, he has been in races with solid pace but never a fast pace. We have no idea how he will handle it. My feeling is that he can.

My Boy Jack has been in a number of fast paces, he can handle the pace, unfortunately he comes home slower than slow, if somehow a really weak number wins the Derby I suppose he could but that feels more like 25/1 rather than the 15/1 he will be.

Bolt, Justify, Audible, Mendelssohn are the 4 horses I feel like have the right style to win the race.

I wish we had seen Magnum Moon in a faster pace race to know how he would have handled it.

[PowerUpPaynter]

I wonder if Audible's top side of the pedigree will finally catch up with him

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

I wonder if Audible's top side of the pedigree will finally catch up with him

I think he has enough stalk speed, talent, and bottom side stamina to do this. Have to pass some good ones though obviously!

[Tom]

Jim Scully, from BRIS is on ATR this morning doing the pace evaluation with Steve. To be updated next week after PP draw Tuesday.