A Note About Mendelssohn That Deserves Its Own Thread

[f2tornado]

Trakus suggest's Mendelssohn ran about the same as any 9F winning counterpart on US soil. His 1200 meter factor (very near 3/4) was a yawn inspiring 111:87. Like his American counterparts, he picked it up thereafter but his victory was not that impressive when you consider the filly was the next best finisher who might be the 6th choice in the KY Oaks. It was the equivalent of taking Bolt out of the Santa Anita. Mendelssohn could certainly be dangerous at Churchill but so could a bunch of others. In a race packed with talent I gotta eventually draw lines through some of them. I like Ryan Moore but advantage to regular riders at the track/race.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

I like Ryan Moore but advantage to regular riders at the track/race.

An interesting dilemma will be whether or not Ryan Moore actually shows up to ride Mendelssohn in the Kentucky Derby.

The 2000 Guineas is run on the same day at Newmarket and Moore obviously has the pick of the Coolmore entrants. As progressive as Mendelssohn has been over the last few months, the tale will be told with Moore's decision. Coolmore's Saxon Warrior is the early favorite for not only the 2000 Guineas, but the Epsom Derby as well. Not an easy mount to leave vacant.

If Moore opts to stay at home that could signal all is not well with Mendelssohn (or that Saxon Warrior is a potential world beater). But it may become a blessing in disguise as O'Brien could pick up an American rider to make the most of Mendelssohn's early speed.

[papillon]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Tejano Run
Timber Country
Sea Hero
Gato Del Sol
Giacomo
Alysheba
Best Pal
Blumin Affair
Cat Thief
Funny Cide
Super Saver
Saarland
Editor's Note
Captain Steve
Normandy Invasion

Yep, Giaccomo really struck fear into everyone, they were so sure he was a contender they sent him off at 50-1

Best Pal did not win the derby, and the favorites were Fly So Free, Strike the Gold, and Hansel.

Sea Hero was 30-1 on the ML

Gato del Sol went of at 21-1

Blumin Affair went off at 14-1 and did not win the derby that is most remembered because it is the one Holy Bull lost to Go for Gin. Blumin Affair's odds in the BCJ were 42-1.

Cat Thief did not win the derby, went off 8-1

Funny Cide went off at 15-1

Super Saver was 8-1, but the favorite, Lookin at Lucky was only 6-1--it was not a formfull pre-season.

I'll give you Saarland, who made no sense, sending him off the co-favorite at 6-1 with Harlan's Holiday, when Madaglio D'Oro went off at 8-1. smh. Horse came home 10th. Anyone who bet that horse at 6-1 deserved to loose money.

Editor's Note went off 5-1 in a coupled entry with Grindstone, Lukas's other coupled entry also went off at 5-1, he didn't win. but if you bet him, you stumbled on the win anyway via Grindstone.

I don't even remember Captain Steve, but Normandy Invasion was the classic, no winning wise guy horse who kept right on not winning. I took so much flack for being completely unimpressed with that horse. That should the test, before anyone posts, they should have to say where they stood with Normandy Invasion, it should be in their signature.

This list says, don't bet on horses on losing streaks. They usually just keep on loosing.

[LoneF]

Mendelssohn = Highest purchase price as a yearling

Mendelssohn = Highest career earnings

As Trevor Denman would say he just exudes class

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by papillon

I don't even remember Captain Steve, but Normandy Invasion was the classic, no winning wise guy horse who kept right on not winning. I took so much flack for being completely unimpressed with that horse. That should the test, before anyone posts, they should have to say where they stood with Normandy Invasion, it should be in their signature.

This list says, don't bet on horses on losing streaks. They usually just keep on loosing.

I bet Normandy Invasion along with Palace Malice that year. I also bet Palace Malice back in the Belmont to make it all well.

I've also bet Charismatic, War Emblem, Funny Cide, Giacamo (huge disclaimer, it was $5 across saver that I shared with a friend). Hard Spun, Mucho Macho Man, Afleet Alex, Exaggerator, Firing Line, Congaree, More Than Ready.

I haven't had a winner in over a decade.

Who are your winners?

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by papillon

Yep, Giaccomo really struck fear into everyone, they were so sure he was a contender they sent him off at 50-1

He won the race! Because the public couldn't pick him out he wasn't "true competition"? I guess since runner-up Closing Argument was 70-1 we can retroactively crown Afleet Alex the 2005 Triple Crown winner...

Best Pal did not win the derby, and the favorites were Fly So Free, Strike the Gold, and Hansel.

Nice. Best Pal at 5.20-1 odds ran 2nd to Strike The Gold who won at 4.80-1 odds and therefore was not "true competition".

Sea Hero was 30-1 on the ML

Won the race. Bet down to 12-1 from the 30-1 ML. Somebody must have pegged him as "true competition".

Blumin Affair went off at 14-1 and did not win the derby that is most remembered because it is the one Holy Bull lost to Go for Gin. Blumin Affair's odds in the BCJ were 42-1.

Blumin Affair was not 14-1, he was the 4th choice at less than 8-1. Go For Gin was higher odds. Who cares what his odds were as a 2yo? He was "true competition" in the Derby.

Cat Thief did not win the derby, went off 8-1

Nope. 7-1 in a 19-horse field. Had the lead in deep stretch.

Funny Cide went off at 15-1

Won the race. Was "true competition" for Empire Maker in the Wood Memorial, too.

Super Saver was 8-1, but the favorite, Lookin at Lucky was only 6-1--it was not a formfull pre-season.

Huh? Super Saver was practically the favorite despite being winless in the preps but he still doesn't fit the "true competition" criteria?

I'll give you Saarland, who made no sense, sending him off the co-favorite at 6-1 with Harlan's Holiday, when Madaglio D'Oro went off at 8-1. smh. Horse came home 10th. Anyone who bet that horse at 6-1 deserved to loose money.

So the horse that ended up 10th is the only one that was "true competition"?

I guess I'm confused as to what you were trying to say. Bolt D'Oro has no shot because he hasn't won a prep? Or Bolt D'Oro ought to be dismissed in the betting (even if he has a shot) because he hasn't won a prep?

This list says, don't bet on horses on losing streaks. They usually just keep on loosing.

No, the list says that horses that are winless in the preps can--based on performance--be competitive in the Kentucky Derby.

I listed 15 horses. The record in the Kentucky Derby stands at 15-6-3-3.

3 of those also won the Preakness and 1 other won the Belmont.

[Vinnie]

Originally Posted by Tom

Secretariat won by 31 and got beat next time out.
When a horse goes out alone like, it is not usually a sign of greatness, just opportunity.

I seriously doubt Mendy will run anything close that race ever again.

What an insane bias that gentleman on the video pointed out at Meydan for the racing carnival. It was a virtual drag strip for the inside horse that was also on the lead. I like Mendy, however, if he ever runs a race like that again at any other location than Meydan, I will be shocked indeed.

[papillon]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

He won the race! Because the public couldn't pick him out he wasn't "true competition"? I guess since runner-up Closing Argument was 70-1 we can retroactively crown Afleet Alex the 2005 Triple Crown winner...


Nice. Best Pal at 5.20-1 odds ran 2nd to Strike The Gold who won at 4.80-1 odds and therefore was not "true competition".


Won the race. Bet down to 12-1 from the 30-1 ML. Somebody must have pegged him as "true competition".


Blumin Affair was not 14-1, he was the 4th choice at less than 8-1. Go For Gin was higher odds. Who cares what his odds were as a 2yo? He was "true competition" in the Derby.


Nope. 7-1 in a 19-horse field. Had the lead in deep stretch.


Won the race. Was "true competition" for Empire Maker in the Wood Memorial, too.


Huh? Super Saver was practically the favorite despite being winless in the preps but he still doesn't fit the "true competition" criteria?


So the horse that ended up 10th is the only one that was "true competition"?

I guess I'm confused as to what you were trying to say. Bolt D'Oro has no shot because he hasn't won a prep? Or Bolt D'Oro ought to be dismissed in the betting (even if he has a shot) because he hasn't won a prep?


No, the list says that horses that are winless in the preps can--based on performance--be competitive in the Kentucky Derby.

I listed 15 horses. The record in the Kentucky Derby stands at 15-6-3-3.

3 of those also won the Preakness and 1 other won the Belmont.

Your list to me was in response to my comment that horses who haven't won since Sept of their 2 yo year aren't treated as feared competition to win the derby by the betting public on race day. The only way to assess that is via their odds. The last time I checked favortism is always determined by the odds, and that "being almost" a favorite or a long shot who pulls it off, does not make you a favorite.

You have now changed it to being a list of horses who out performed their odds in the KY derby, perhaps you misunderstood me, or perhaps you've deliberately changed the issue, and given that you've expanded the conversation to other races, it feels like "debate sliding" to me.

I got all of the post odds from the videos of the respective derbies, if they are wrong, blame Jim McKay. If you want to call me a liar, I'll post every single one of them.

Normandy Invasion was a bad bet. He just was. The love for him was exactly like that other non winning wise guy heart throbe Wicked Strong.

I didn't bet last year. I had Nyquist over Exagerator the year before. I did not bet the American Pharoah or Chrome derbies because I was sick. I wouldn't have picked American Pharoah, so I would have lost that one. I was sickest during Chrome's run, so I really had no clue what was going on in the world. I had Orb over Golden Soul, and my super was Orb, Golden Soul, Will Take Charge, and Revolutionary. Had I just boxed WTC and Revolutionary, I would have walked away with $20,000, I didn't. I had Hansen boxed with I'll Have Another, so nada. I was all in on Shackleford, and regret not a penny lost on him. I had win bets on both Giacomo and Mine That Bird because I always put bets on true longshots, because hey, why not. I had Monarchos and Songandprayer boxed. I have a horrible habit of picking the winner and messing it up with a loser. You'll probablly also notice a FL derby bias, what can I say, my home track is GP, except for Pletcher's flash in pans, I never bet them.

My reply to you wasn't to try to claim being the greatest handicapper ever, but to point out, your list did not support your contention.

Bet Bolt D'Oro, I sincerely wish you good luck. I'll let him beat me.

[Hoops McCann]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

An interesting dilemma will be whether or not Ryan Moore actually shows up to ride Mendelssohn in the Kentucky Derby.

The 2000 Guineas is run on the same day at Newmarket and Moore obviously has the pick of the Coolmore entrants. As progressive as Mendelssohn has been over the last few months, the tale will be told with Moore's decision. Coolmore's Saxon Warrior is the early favorite for not only the 2000 Guineas, but the Epsom Derby as well. Not an easy mount to leave vacant.

If Moore opts to stay at home that could signal all is not well with Mendelssohn (or that Saxon Warrior is a potential world beater). But it may become a blessing in disguise as O'Brien could pick up an American rider to make the most of Mendelssohn's early speed.

didn't realize that. quite the quandary indeed. if he Moore rides Saxon Warrior, i wouldn't assume that means he thinks any less of Mendelssohn. the 2000 Guineas is a big deal.

[upthecreek]

http://live.drf.com/nuggets/42027-th...super-key-race

[PoloUK6108]

Ryan Moore confirmed to ride for the roses

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by PoloUK6108

Ryan Moore confirmed to ride for the roses

definitely a better sign than if he didnt, it would be an auto toss if did not stick with the horse.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by PoloUK6108

Ryan Moore confirmed to ride for the roses

That's bigtime.

[Hoops McCann]

glad to hear it. Saxon Warrior will probably win without him.

[Gerard02]

I watched the race and the one thing I was wondering was why the jockey was pushing Mendelssohn down the stretch so hard. He even gave him a slap with the stick. The horse was so far down the stretch, he could have jogged home. The jockey should not have been all out on this horse. I've seen jocks just sitting up in the stirrups while horses cruise home. Just something I noticed.