I paid a penny for Justify thoughts Kentucky Derby pre race

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

Just shows how little research is being done, i am concerned the opposite case may exist, not arhletic enough to handle the traffic.

Justify broke slow in his first two starts which is concerning as it seems imperative that he gets early position close up near the first flight. If he doesn't do that he'll probably be a non-factor like Curlin in 2007 regardless of his talent.

From there, depending on the pace, we'll see if he is American Pharoah (slow pace) or Unbridled's Song (fast pace).

Both American Pharoah (Rebel) and Dortmund (San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby) broke poorly from the gate in some of their preps but weren't too troubled in 5-6 horse fields. Both had foot issues and Justify himself had at least a minor problem coming out of the Santa Anita Derby, so there is that, too. The former two broke cleanly in the Kentucky Derby though.

[papillon]

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker

Pedigree was a very poor word. I was talking more about his past, and racing history.

First 5 career starts were on Turf including his "across the pond" win in the BC Juvy Turf. He then goes fake stuff and then 'dirt' at Dubai after his BC victory.

Maybe he is the 2nd coming of Animal Kingdom?

I'm not discounting Mendelssohn in the least. An obviously well bred and incredibly talented horse that has won races on all 3 surfaces in 7 career starts, including G1 level wins in 2 of his last 3.

Toss in the fact that he was a $3 Million purchase with Aidan O'Brien in the barn, and it is a horse that has to be respected regardless of any past Kentucky Derby history.

His turf races I think need to be taken with a grain of salt. O'Brien has said they only raced him on turf, because he was there and kind of a slow learner. He clearly prefers firm ground, once he got on firm ground, he started winning. And he finally had his "$3 million" breakout performance when he got on the surface he was bred for. My guess is that he was in the BCJT, instead of the BCJ, only because they were testing US Navy Flag for a possible derby run.

For me the most important thing about his turf races is the amount of weight he carried in them, up to 131lbs twice.

If he is a factor in the race, I think it will either be in the first three, and run very much a Nyquisty type of race, or he'll try to wire and run a very Hard Spunish type of race, but I don't think there is any closer of an Exagerator or Street Sense quality in the field, so...

If he does manage to win the derby, he'd be perfect for an attempt at a KY derby/Arlington Million double. I'm not even sure they would bother with a TC attempt tbh. There is only one TC they really care about, but then again, if O'Brien pulled off the American and English TCs in the same year...oh my goodneesh

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker

has won races on all 3 surfaces in 7 career starts, including G1 level wins in 2 of his last 3.

This is interesting for sure.

Omni 3 surface horses are not real common, esp. the ones who win graded races and even rarer win all G1s on different surfaces.

I kept track of a few of those over the years like Lava Man (all G1s), and then the all graded stakes ones like Einstein, Mushka, General Quarters, Twirling Candy, Sidney's Candy, Panty Raid. I guess a few others.

Then you have the ones who won on 3 surfaces but not all were graded stakes like Awesome Gem, Ball Four, Carriage Trail, Colonel John, etc.

Thinking about it in baseball terms, looking at certain players, the athlete is preeminent....the true athlete horse is able to run on any surface.

[cj]

Originally Posted by clicknow

This is interesting for sure.

Omni 3 surface horses are not real common, esp. the ones who win graded races and even rarer win all G1s on different surfaces.

I kept track of a few of those over the years like Lava Man (all G1s), and then the all graded stakes ones like Einstein, Mushka, General Quarters, Twirling Candy, Sidney's Candy, Panty Raid. I guess a few others.

Then you have the ones who won on 3 surfaces but not all were graded stakes like Awesome Gem, Ball Four, Carriage Trail, Colonel John, etc.

Thinking about it in baseball terms, looking at certain players, the athlete is preeminent....the true athlete horse is able to run on any surface.

To be fair many horses that probably would have won on all three surfaces were never tried on some.