I paid a penny for Justify thoughts Kentucky Derby pre race

[GMB@BP]

to much incorrect statements to write out a response, been hashed in 10 different threads, feels like trolling.

we get it, you dont like the horse and you will be the first one in line should a horse lose the derby

[TiffaniO]

Oh goodness... this obsession against Justify and for Mendelsohn is getting a bit ridiculous. If you feel that strongly, just wait 19 days, play your horse and then either cash the ticket or throw it in the scrap heap.

If you truly feel strongly for your precious “Mendy” you should hope others feel as strongly about Justify.

[CincyHorseplayer]

His 2 race back makes me believe in his talent. To go that fast in your 2 turn debut early and not die is impressive. I don't think he will get the luxury pace scenario of his last and you can question the validity of his figure but I think after setting a mild and uncontested pace he was going to finish better than he did in the blazing prior race. But other than this race he has done nothing. His talent is real but I don't think the conditions will be as ideal on derby day. And IMO if he doesn't finish 2nd or worst the race could be another payoff dud so I am betting accordingly.

I don't agree with what I think is an oversimplified interpretation of Bolt Doro. I think if anything it's him not Good Magic circling back to greatness. His blood and guts performance 1st back vs a tough Mckinzie was awesome. On my ratings it was the best non 9furlong prep race. Then runs into the above scenario. I was surprised he ran at him as hard as he did because I expected more of a regression after the San Felipe. But quietly has earned 123 and 129 TFUS figs and I think is primed to run his best. I haven't got the numbers for the 9f preps yet but thus far the highest rating I have is 209 for derby prep routes this year. Par is 220. So far in this entire crop he has come closest with a 218 last year. I make my own ratings and they've been accurate for the last 6 years. I think Bolt is a live one and still might just prove to be the best of this crop. If the odds are looking like 8-1 I likely am a taker.

[f2tornado]

I too think Justify is no American Pharoah but the point is to pick the winner. You have a about a 95% chance of picking a loser without even capping the race. I enjoy most seeing posts about why a handicapper thinks a horse will WIN. I make money on winning horses. I make nothing on losers, at least those outside the scope of vertical gimmicks.

[LoneF]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

I too think Justify is no American Pharoah but the point is to pick the winner. You have a about a 95% chance of picking a loser without even capping the race. I enjoy most seeing posts about why a handicapper thinks a horse will WIN. I make money on winning horses. I make nothing on losers, at least those outside the scope of vertical gimmicks.

You toss out Justify and that helps you a lot in making money if you do pick out the correct winner.

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by LoneF

You toss out Justify and that helps you a lot in making money if you do pick out the correct winner.

Every other post you've made on this board is about hating on Justify......that's why they run the race.

[horses4courses]

Along with all the hoopla of the KY Derby, and handicapping the race,
come the inevitable brash statements and chest thumping.

So, you don't like Justify.
Fair enough.
Chances are he won't win the race.

3-1 odds say his chances are around 25%.
He is probably an underlay, and his true chances of winning are more remote.

To call the horse a "fraud" says more about the OP than it does about the horse.
Justify is a serious racehorse. He just may not win the Derby, though.
Don't expect much credit for going against him, and a lot of ridicule should
he scoot home for the roses. There isn't a better dirt trainer than Baffert.

Even if he does win, there are many more candidates with chances at far more
attractive odds. Nothing wrong with tearing up a ticket on a good bet.
Keep making good bets, and this game becomes much easier to navigate.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by LoneF

What exactly has Justify done that his rivals like Audible, Mendelssohn, Magnum Moon and Good Magic have not done to merit him being the clear favorite ?

Well, outside of Magnum Moon, he'd be the only one that hasn't lost a race while winning a 9F (or greater) G1 Derby Prep.

There have been a number of "nevers" that have been crossed off the board since Charismatic romped in 1999. The Apollo curse along with Storm Cat and some others are sure to go down as well. Likely sooner than later.

The game has drastically changed, and the lead ins to this race have also drastically changed. That simply can't even be debated any longer.

At least you are all over one of those "nevers" with your respect for Mendelssohn and his across the pond UAE Derby and turf pedigree. That 'never' will be quashed some day as well. Will it be this year?

Whatever happens, we have a potential Derby for the ages on our hands with a dozen great stories brewing about. Enjoy it, and if the horse you like wins, all the better for you.

[SkunkApe]

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker

Whatever happens, we have a potential Derby for the ages on our hands with a dozen great stories brewing about. Enjoy it, and if the horse you like wins, all the better for you.

(cue the Hokey-Pokey music)

...and THAT’S what it’s all about.

[papillon]

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker

Well, outside of Magnum Moon, he'd be the only one that hasn't lost a race while winning a 9F (or greater) G1 Derby Prep.

There have been a number of "nevers" that have been crossed off the board since Charismatic romped in 1999. The Apollo curse along with Storm Cat and some others are sure to go down as well. Likely sooner than later.

The game has drastically changed, and the lead ins to this race have also drastically changed. That simply can't even be debated any longer.

At least you are all over one of those "nevers" with your respect for Mendelssohn and his across the pond UAE Derby and turf pedigree. That 'never' will be quashed some day as well. Will it be this year?

Whatever happens, we have a potential Derby for the ages on our hands with a dozen great stories brewing about. Enjoy it, and if the horse you like wins, all the better for you.

Being a Scat Daddy out of Leslie's Lady is about as dirt as you get. It is basically the exact same nick as Beholder, if you take it back to Hennessey, the sire of Johannesburg and Henny Hughs. Mendelssohn is Justify's brother and Audible's uncle, if theirs are not turf pedogrees, neither is his. If Behlder does not have a turf pedigree, there is no way Mendelssohn can.


He won't win, because I have a sentimental attachment to him. Kiss of death, poor horse.

[LoneF]

Originally Posted by papillon

Being a Scat Daddy out of Leslie's Lady is about as dirt as you get. It is basically the exact same nick as Beholder, if you take it back to Hennessey, the sire of Johannesburg and Henny Hughs. Mendelssohn is Justify's brother and Audible's uncle, if theirs are not turf pedogrees, neither is his. If Behlder does not have a turf pedigree, there is no way Mendelssohn can.


He won't win, because I have a sentimental attachment to him. Kiss of death, poor horse.

Don’t tell me your cursing Mendelssohn!!

[cj]

Originally Posted by LoneF

Don’t tell me your cursing Mendelssohn!!

You already started a thread about Justify. Just add to that one, no need for multiple threads about the same horse. I merged them. Heck, there is also another one out there.


http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=144290

And another one...

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=144195

And another one...


http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=144178

And these are all on the first page of this section.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by papillon

Being a Scat Daddy out of Leslie's Lady is about as dirt as you get. It is basically the exact same nick as Beholder, if you take it back to Hennessey, the sire of Johannesburg and Henny Hughs. Mendelssohn is Justify's brother and Audible's uncle, if theirs are not turf pedogrees, neither is his. If Behlder does not have a turf pedigree, there is no way Mendelssohn can.


He won't win, because I have a sentimental attachment to him. Kiss of death, poor horse.

Pedigree was a very poor word. I was talking more about his past, and racing history.

First 5 career starts were on Turf including his "across the pond" win in the BC Juvy Turf. He then goes fake stuff and then 'dirt' at Dubai after his BC victory.

Maybe he is the 2nd coming of Animal Kingdom?

I'm not discounting Mendelssohn in the least. An obviously well bred and incredibly talented horse that has won races on all 3 surfaces in 7 career starts, including G1 level wins in 2 of his last 3.

Toss in the fact that he was a $3 Million purchase with Aidan O'Brien in the barn, and it is a horse that has to be respected regardless of any past Kentucky Derby history.

[GMB@BP]

Justify has raced against a grand total of 14 horses heading into the KY derby

While a true statement it was also a product of how talented he was. The fact he stayed at Santa Anita set off a chain of last second changes in the preps surrounding his race.

11 of the 14 were just random fillers to get the races to go.

His maiden race was your typical event for 3yo's at SA, he stealth entered into the non winners of one, it was a surprise to all when he entered. I will address the SA derby next.

You heard Mick Ruis say himself the only reason he entered 90-1 Otbit Rain in the Santa Anita Derby was to get the race to go.

That is completely false. He said before the race he thought only 4 or 5 were going to enter, then 7 ended being drawn. He thought he was getting a free check till the entries came out. Also, the SA Derby goes with 1 horse entered, where do you get this "get the race to go" stuff.

Part of the issue you ignore is the fact that a lot of the socal horses are shipping out of town and doing quite well, without having to run against Justify and Bolt.

It’s not like his final times are anything noteworthy

Yea, horses go 121 and change all the time this meet at SA, good call.

Oh and also the projected derby pace seems to favor a closer like Hofburg much more than a horse like Justify who needs to be close to the pace.

Every year the Derby pace is set to be fast, but we see horses win on or near the lead. Its not an autotoss situation.

Yet Justify will go off at 5/2 and Hofburg at 20/1

This is why its a parimutuel.

What exactly has Justify done that his rivals like Audible, Mendelssohn, Magnum Moon and Good Magic have not done to merit him being the clear favorite ?

Clear favorite would be like 4/5. Were talking about 3/1 to 5/1. You make it sound like this is Arazi going into the gate.

Rule #1 in gambling. Don’t bet with your heart.

Heart? Does this Justify horse have some kind of storied following coming into the race? I think people see a fast, well bred, physical specimen of a horse from a top barn. Its not really that much to think the horse has a good shot.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by papillon

Being a Scat Daddy out of Leslie's Lady is about as dirt as you get.

Scat Daddy has sired only 2 Grade 1 winners on dirt in North America and one of them is potentially running against Mendelssohn in the Kentucky Derby.

In terms of Grade 1/Group 1 horses, Scat Daddy has been much more potent on turf (Mendelssohn included).