No real PROOF of PAST POSTING!

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by AlsoEligible

I'm curious as to what standard of proof would be enough for the people who are convinced that this past posting is a wide-spread issue.

Todd already pointed out that when a race closes, the TRPB gets an audit file from every wagering hub that lists every single bet made, and the time it was made. Any instance of past-posting is known immediately, and the money from that guest site is thrown out.

Would it be enough if the TRPB made those list of bets publicly available? Or would people then move on to suggesting that the timestamps were altered (which I think I already saw in one of these threads), and suggesting that the TRPB and/or the totes were complicit in the cover-up?

I don't blame anyone for being suspicious; racing absolutely has a perception problem. But the burden of proof usually falls on the person(s) making the claim...if it's up to the accused to prove a negative, then some specific ideas on how to do that would be a good starting point.

Let me see if I understand you here:

We play a game in which every conceivable act of fraud and deceit has taken place, in recent memory...and you want us to supply you with more "proof" to back up our assertions that past-posting might still be taking place in this game? And...what is this garbage about us claiming that "past-posting is a wide-spread issue"? Is this just a lame attempt by you to admit that there might be some "infrequent" past-posting still going on? Who gives a rat's ass if past-posting is "wide-spread", or "rare"? Should it be taking place at ALL?

Didn't Mike Maloney state in his recent book that he witnessed acts of past-posting with his OWN EYES...and that he was disgusted by the way that the game's officials reacted when this information was relayed to them? Why would we be convinced that these incompetent and apathetic officials who currently run this game would be willing and proficient enough to put a stop to these types of criminal acts?

We are supposed to change our minds because you, Todd and Mike-PA are telling us to? I submit that, when a game has the tarnished reputation that THIS game has...then the "burden of proof" lies with the game's authorities, when it comes to matters of "integrity". When a crook states that he is now "going straight", then it's natural for the crowd to doubt him...unless he supplies concrete proof to back up the assertion that he has now "changed". LAME proof just doesn't cut it...as far as I am concerned.

[Track Phantom]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Let me see if I understand you here:

We play a game in which every conceivable act of fraud and deceit has taken place, in recent memory...and you want us to supply you with more "proof" to back up our assertions that past-posting might still be taking place in this game? And...what is this garbage about us claiming that "past-posting is a wide-spread issue"? Is this just a lame attempt by you to admit that there might be some "infrequent" past-posting still going on? Who gives a rat's ass if past-posting is "wide-spread", or "rare"? Should it be taking place at ALL?

Didn't Mike Maloney state in his recent book that he witnessed acts of past-posting with his OWN EYES...and that he was disgusted by the way that the game's officials reacted when this information was relayed to them? Why would we be convinced that these incompetent and apathetic officials who currently run this game would be willing and proficient enough to put a stop to these types of criminal acts?

We are supposed to change our minds because you, Todd and Mike-PA are telling us to? I submit that, when a game has the tarnished reputation that THIS game has...then the "burden of proof" lies with the game's authorities, when it comes to matters of "integrity". When a crook states that he is now "going straight", then it's natural for the crowd to doubt him...unless he supplies concrete proof to back up the assertion that he has now "changed". LAME proof just doesn't cut it...as far as I am concerned.

Horse Racing has a much, much higher burden to "prove" integrity exists. They cannot be in a "prove it to me that something nefarious is going on" mode. They have to be overtly proactive in displaying they have the tools, expertise, desire and motivation to keep everything transparent and honest. Their lack of action is what leads many people to question what is happening. Their lack of persistence in this area, even when it can be hurtful to their product or bottom line, is what causes wildly varying perceptions.

Pete Rose remains banned from the Hall of Fame not because Pete Rose bet on baseball but because the hard stance against Pete Rose buys Major League Baseball the invaluable perception of honesty at any cost.

Personally, I think the strange, and dramatic late, betting and massive form reversal while traveling 6 wide the entire way by the Sunland Derby winner was case and point to investigate. Maybe there was nothing there but all the signs were it was extraordinarily suspect. To do nothing is shameful.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Track Phantom

Horse Racing has a much, much higher burden to "prove" integrity exists. They cannot be in a "prove it to me that something nefarious is going on" mode. They have to be overtly proactive in displaying they have the tools, expertise, desire and motivation to keep everything transparent and honest. Their lack of action is what leads many people to question what is happening. Their lack of persistence in this area, even when it can be hurtful to their product or bottom line, is what causes wildly varying perceptions.

Pete Rose remains banned from the Hall of Fame not because Pete Rose bet on baseball but because the hard stance against Pete Rose buys Major League Baseball the invaluable perception of honesty at any cost.

Personally, I think the strange, and dramatic late, betting and massive form reversal while traveling 6 wide the entire way by the Sunland Derby winner was case and point to investigate. Maybe there was nothing there but all the signs were it was extraordinarily suspect. To do nothing is shameful.

I find it humorous when some horse racing "apologists" come here to tell us that this game has a "perception" problem. This game doesn't have a "perception problem"; it has a REPUTATION problem. And it's wholly DESERVED!

[AlsoEligible]

You can label me an apologist, but nothing could be further from the truth. Unlike many other industry people here, I didn't grow up with the sport, and I really have no fondness for it. I got into racing because I needed a job, I've stayed because it pays well and I ended up being halfway good at what I do.

But I'm not here as an ambassador to the game, or to change anyone's mind. If anything, a decade on the inside has left me pretty damn jaded towards it. Racing has a ton of problems, probably more than can ever be fixed. Past-posting just happens to not be one of those.

I only lurk on this board for the rare thread like this, where I can contribute as someone with knowledge of how this stuff works. And when someone is claiming something that I know to be 100% inaccurate, I'm going to call it what it is. So bet, or don't bet. Believe it's rigged, or believe it's not. I really could not care less what you do with your money.

[elhelmete]

Everyone on both sides should fire up their Googles and research the enormous sums of $$ being spent by traders looking to co-locate their servers to reduce trade execution latency by micro-micro-seconds.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by AlsoEligible

You can label me an apologist, but nothing could be further from the truth. Unlike many other industry people here, I didn't grow up with the sport, and I really have no fondness for it. I got into racing because I needed a job, I've stayed because it pays well and I ended up being halfway good at what I do.

But I'm not here as an ambassador to the game, or to change anyone's mind. If anything, a decade on the inside has left me pretty damn jaded towards it. Racing has a ton of problems, probably more than can ever be fixed. Past-posting just happens to not be one of those.

I only lurk on this board for the rare thread like this, where I can contribute as someone with knowledge of how this stuff works. And when someone is claiming something that I know to be 100% inaccurate, I'm going to call it what it is. So bet, or don't bet. Believe it's rigged, or believe it's not. I really could not care less what you do with your money.

I don't know how "inside" you have been during your decade in this game...so I don't know how to respond to your assertion that "you have knowledge of how this stuff works". But I too have been seriously involved in this game, for 35 years, and I myself have acquired some "knowledge" about a thing or two in this game during this time-span. And I believe that this entitles me to my own opinions...regardless of whether or not you consider them "100% inaccurate".

I called you an "apologist" because you said that this game has a "perception problem"...when, in reality, this game has the shadiest reputation of any other gambling game in existence...a reputation that's well-deserved. The main problem with this game isn't our "perception" of it; it's the industry's total inability/unwillingness to do what has to be done in order to clean this game up to an acceptable level.

[AlsoEligible]

By "stuff" I'm only really referring to totes, the wagering network, and to a certain extent, the CRW teams. And you're right, it's not a perception issue, it is a reputation issue - bad choice of words on my part. And the industry as a whole seems both unable and unwilling to address it.

Despite all of that, I still maintain that this isn't happening, even with all of the opinions to the contrary. Because most of those originate from the premise of "these guys can't possibly keep winning every race", which in itself is flawed...because they aren't.

We're not talking about 1, 2, or even a handful of teams that keep knocking down winners. There's upwards of 20-25 of these guys now, and on any given race 10 can win, 5 can lose, 10 can break even or pass on the race, and the result is going to look the same to the public. It's been a long time since I looked at the numbers, but most of these guys were/are just about breaking even, which is ultimately the goal. Bet $100k on a race, get $100k back, and the 10-15% rebate is their profit. Any extra winnings beyond that are just icing on the cake.

Pure speculation on my part, but if there's any scandal surrounding CRW, I think it's the potential for money laundering. Most of these guys are on the up-and-up, but there's quite a few that operate offshore, using shell corporations or LLCs. Of course maybe they're all just privately wealthy people who like playing the game. But if you were looking for a low-key industry with no oversight/regulation, that will take millions from you no questions asked, and give it back clean with a bonus on top...you couldn't ask for a better racket than racing. If the feds ever were compelled to look under the hood, I think that's the story they're more likely to find; not a concerted effort to let whales dump bets after the bell.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by AlsoEligible

By "stuff" I'm only really referring to totes, the wagering network, and to a certain extent, the CRW teams. And you're right, it's not a perception issue, it is a reputation issue - bad choice of words on my part. And the industry as a whole seems both unable and unwilling to address it.

Despite all of that, I still maintain that this isn't happening, even with all of the opinions to the contrary. Because most of those originate from the premise of "these guys can't possibly keep winning every race", which in itself is flawed...because they aren't.

We're not talking about 1, 2, or even a handful of teams that keep knocking down winners. There's upwards of 20-25 of these guys now, and on any given race 10 can win, 5 can lose, 10 can break even or pass on the race, and the result is going to look the same to the public. It's been a long time since I looked at the numbers, but most of these guys were/are just about breaking even, which is ultimately the goal. Bet $100k on a race, get $100k back, and the 10-15% rebate is their profit. Any extra winnings beyond that are just icing on the cake.

Pure speculation on my part, but if there's any scandal surrounding CRW, I think it's the potential for money laundering. Most of these guys are on the up-and-up, but there's quite a few that operate offshore, using shell corporations or LLCs. Of course maybe they're all just privately wealthy people who like playing the game. But if you were looking for a low-key industry with no oversight/regulation, that will take millions from you no questions asked, and give it back clean with a bonus on top...you couldn't ask for a better racket than racing. If the feds ever were compelled to look under the hood, I think that's the story they're more likely to find; not a concerted effort to let whales dump bets after the bell.

Do you realize how damning it is when a horse racing "insider" like yourself admits that the racing industry as a whole seems unwilling to address the game's reputation issue? Is there anything more important than "reputation" in the gambling business? Can such an industry be entrusted to ever do the "right thing"...when it holds its reputation in such low regard?

[AlsoEligible]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Do you realize how damning it is when a horse racing "insider" like yourself admits that the racing industry as a whole seems unwilling to address the game's reputation issue? Is there anything more important than "reputation" in the gambling business? Can such an industry be entrusted to ever do the "right thing"...when it holds its reputation in such low regard?

I do, but it doesn't make it any less true, and there's no sense sugarcoating it. That's not to say there aren't individuals (or even tracks/organizations) who are trying to address things - there are.

But between the in-fighting between various stakeholders, a general acceptance of the status quo, and the lack of any kind of central organization who can drive change throughout the industry, any kind of widespread reform is going to be very difficult. The last point is what I think the game ultimately needs in order to survive, although I'm not sure if the majority will acknowledge that until it's too late. But that's a different topic.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by AlsoEligible

I do, but it doesn't make it any less true, and there's no sense sugarcoating it. That's not to say there aren't individuals (or even tracks/organizations) who are trying to address things - there are.

But between the in-fighting between various stakeholders, a general acceptance of the status quo, and the lack of any kind of central organization who can drive change throughout the industry, any kind of widespread reform is going to be very difficult. The last point is what I think the game ultimately needs in order to survive, although I'm not sure if the majority will acknowledge that until it's too late. But that's a different topic.

I agree with everything that you say here...and I much appreciate your candor on this matter. I too have repeatedly said here that this game is in dire straits without a unified governing body. If this game doesn't survive in the future...then its demise should be ruled a "suicide"...IMO.

Thanks for your forthrightness.

[Prioress Ply]

Originally Posted by elhelmete

Everyone on both sides should fire up their Googles and research the enormous sums of $$ being spent by traders looking to co-locate their servers to reduce trade execution latency by micro-micro-seconds.

Or read "Flash Boys" by Michael Lewis.

[green80]

Would anybody care to explain exactly how this past posting is done? (if it's happening) I understand the tote delays when bets are made across the country, but how long after the race goes off can they bet?

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by green80

Would anybody care to explain exactly how this past posting is done? (if it's happening) I understand the tote delays when bets are made across the country, but how long after the race goes off can they bet?

Everyone has their own theory. Could be some rogue machine somewhere in the deserts of Arizona or New Hampshire (ok, NH doesn't have any deserts).

Could be some genius hacker that has hacked into the tote system and is able to manipulate the timestamps on wagers.

Could be a rogue ADW that has somehow managed to payoff every track in existence to which it sends its after-the-bell wagers.

Who knows.

Point is...widespread past posting isn't something I think is happening. Once in a blue moon system failures along the line may have allowed past posting somewhere, and that urban legend gets blown up into a full blown crisis when combined with the late odds drops we see regularly today, but are actually due to tons of money (40% or more) coming in at the final 30 seconds or less of open wagering, and don't get reflected on the tote until after the race starts.

Occam's razor easily points towards that last scenario, but a lot of people tend to gravitate to the more sexier and criminal notions lying around out there.

[cj]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

...but are actually due to tons of money (40% or more) coming in at the final 30 seconds or less of open wagering, and don't get reflected on the tote until after the race starts.

Occam's razor easily points towards that last scenario, but a lot of people tend to gravitate to the more sexier and criminal notions lying around out there.

I agree this is what is happening. But perception means a lot, and racing is doing absolutely nothing to change what is a terrible optic. At this point I'm not sure there is anything they can do.

[Poindexter]

What I find interesting on the past posting issue is that if racing even for just 1 month did not spring the gate until the pool was closed and the final odds were displayed, at the end of that one month, I think most of us would have a fairly good idea how much of this late odds movement is due to the "brilliance of the whales" and how much of this late odds movement is due to some major money being bet after the bell.

The price to pay for demanding that final odds be tallied and displayed prior to off, I believe is a small one. I think anyone that blindly trusts that past posting is not going on is being naive (even though those of us who believe it are living in a dreamland).

I think it is about time for this bettor(myself) to focus the majority of his action on the multi leg exotics. Not likely someone past posting is going to put much of their money in the pick 4 or pick 5, and even if they do the rest of the legs they have to bet in advance.