Final Fractions

[Wiley]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

Giacomo finished 4th by 2 lengths in the Santa Anita derby

Thanks. I guess he fits the profile.

[CincyHorseplayer]

In fact here's how the last 26 derby winners fared in their final prep.

13-won

9-placed(all by less than 3 lengths)

4-all finished 4th and all less than 5 lengths

Top 2 criteria comprise 85% of winners.

[GMB@BP]

Not sure they were around at the time with timeform pf but i would imagine there was some slow pace issues that hurt Giacomo coming into the derby. Of course he never wins without the crazy pace and the ride.

[sbcaris]

MC990: You asked for my view on why I use the loss of 2 lengths or more from the six furlong call to the finish of a 9 furlong prep.

It turns out that in the history of the Ky Derby from 1973-2017 only two horses ever won the roses who qualified on my final fraction angle but lost 2 lengths or more from the 6 furlong call to the finish of a 9 furlong prep race. Those horses, if I remember correctly, were Go For Gin in 1994 and Thunder Gulch in 1995.

Thunder Gulch, however, raced in two 9 furlong preps and showed no loss of ground from the 6 furlong call to the finish line in one of them.

The evidence is very strong that if a horse loses 2 lengths or more from the six furlong call to the finish line of his 9 furlong prep race, his chances of winning the roses are slim indeed. It probably will be done again but is just not likely. Those type of horses that lose ground also do not fair well in the Preakness and Belmont Stakes as well as the Breeders Cup Classic.

[Bennie]

sbcaris - just curious if you have tossed Mendelssohn or just and oversight.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer

In the last 26 years only 2 horses have finished further than 2 lengths back in their final 9f prep. Thunder Gulch and Mine That Bird. But to Thunder's credit he raced in 2, 9furlong preps and won the Florida Derby. Quip and Solomini were never in the race at all so I'd be hesitant to say the least to give them a pass for their finishes.

Sea Hero (2.75), Monarchos (4.75), and Real Quiet (2.25) all beaten more than 2 lengths.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Sea Hero (2.75), Monarchos (4.75), and Real Quiet (2.25) all beaten more than 2 lengths.

You're really going to split hairs on 2.75 and 2.25 lengths? Ok then!

More important stat IMO is win/place 22 of 26.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer

You're really going to split hairs on 2.75 and 2.25 lengths? Ok then!

More important stat IMO is win/place 22 of 26.

You coulda just said "3 lengths" and been done with it.

At any rate, the average number of starters in the Kentucky Derby that ran worse than 4th in their last prep race is ~2.

So the stats aren't really a huge help in determining the winner, but rather who to eliminate.

Of course, I'm not sure if anyone needs much help crossing off Bravazo and Promises Fulfilled...

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Sea Hero (2.75), Monarchos (4.75), and Real Quiet (2.25) all beaten more than 2 lengths.

Mr. Caris is not saying lose by, he is saying losing ground to the winner. If a horse was five lengths back at 6F and lost by three then the horse gained two lengths on the leader... and could gain more going longer. It’s a very strong angle but still often leaves you with half a dozen or so horses to filter through.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

Mr. Caris is not saying lose by, he is saying losing ground to the winner. If a horse was five lengths back at 6F and lost by three then the horse gained two lengths on the leader... and could gain more going longer. It’s a very strong angle but still often leaves you with half a dozen or so horses to filter through.

Yep, but my response was to CincyHorseplayer comment about how only 2 of the last 26 Derby winners have been beaten more than 2 lengths in their final prep.

Maybe he misread sbcaris's original post but I think he was starting another vein to the thread. I didn't look at sbcaris's angle too close but Cincy's is fairly strong on the numbers, it's just that especially with the new points system for eligibility, it's hard for horses to tank in their final prep and still make the race. As I said, only 2 or 3 slip through the cracks and they usually don't rate highly to begin with.

[Parson]

thanks for the variant Stan

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Sea Hero (2.75), Monarchos (4.75), and Real Quiet (2.25) all beaten more than 2 lengths.

Monarchos came in 2nd losing by 2 3/4 lengths

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

Monarchos came in 2nd losing by 2 3/4 lengths

Yep, I used his winning margin in the Kentucky Derby for some reason. Thanks.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

You coulda just said "3 lengths" and been done with it.

At any rate, the average number of starters in the Kentucky Derby that ran worse than 4th in their last prep race is ~2.

So the stats aren't really a huge help in determining the winner, but rather who to eliminate.

Of course, I'm not sure if anyone needs much help crossing off Bravazo and Promises Fulfilled...

Precisely. The out of the money finish by 3 or more lengths is a great eliminator as a place to start. Other big factors pull the rest off the list.

[sbcaris]

Bennie: I do not use the UAE Derby as one of my big 6 prep races. That said, Mendelssohn is certainly not a toss. His 106 Beyer figure and very strong performance in that race cannot be overlooked.

By the way that UAE Derby has only been run on a dirt track for about the last three years. So the sample size for those horses is exceedingly small.