Final Fractions

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

Magnum Moon 36.47 / 11.99
Quip 37.13 / 12.33
Solomini 36.81 / 12.20
Combatant 36.30 / 12.16

Magnum Moon is the only one playable in the KD from those four IMO.

[papillon]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

Buckpasser-x comes from the dam side. Nyquist, Chrome, and Orb had it via daughters of Buckpasser. It’s a small sample size but Buckpasser-x horses that run a fast final 3/8 hit the KY Derby exacta about 50% of the time. Heck, Chrome and Commanding Curve had it.

But what if Leslie's Lady is the 21st century Aspidistra? Aspidistra was a claimer, before she retired to the shed, but most speed comes down to us through Fappiono via Dr, Fager from Aspidistra.

Leslie's Lady's line is fast, and two could carry speed, Beholder and Mendelssohn

[Afleet]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

doesnt the pace of the race have to factor into any discussion about how they came home?

yes pace matters; so does a horse bolting in front of you in the stretch, having to check and losing momentum. How do you quantify that?

With that said I think its impossible not to like Magnum moon -he just wins. Appollo curse and all

[Richie]

yes, what adjustment can be made on the FDB stretch run, had to lose at least 3 lengths there, no?

[Parson]

does anyone have the track variant for the LA derby and FL derby?

[papillon]

Over at Thorograph they are discounting Magnum Moon's final fractions because there was a very strong tailwind and because the track apparently slopes downward.

[cj]

Originally Posted by papillon

Over at Thorograph they are discounting Magnum Moon's final fractions because there was a very strong tailwind and because the track apparently slopes downward.

It was the pace IMO. I was standing on the track. There was no strong tailwind. My wife took this.

[Blenheim]

Originally Posted by cj

It was the pace IMO. I was standing on the track. There was no strong tailwind. My wife took this.

Nice photo.

It appears to be definitive w/respect to the wind, although I haven't checked the weather conditions for that time. That windsock flag thingy hanging above the tent shows relatively no wind, maybe 2 to 4 mph . . . any earlier photos showin' a flag?

[sbcaris]

Parson: the Louisiana Derby-------09
Wood Memorial----------------------05
Santa Anita Derby-------------------19
Florida Derby-------------------------14
Blue Grass----------------------------16
Arkansas Derby----------------------13

The above are the track variants for the prep races listed. The Wood was run over the fastest track and the SA Derby was the slowest track for prep races this year.

[sbcaris]

My angle is as follows: A colt must achieve the final 3/8 of a 9 furlong prep race in 37 4/5 or less or run the final eighth of a mile in 12 4/5 or less. And also must not have lost 2 lengths or more from the 6 furlong call to the finish of a 9 furlong prep. Here are the qualifiers this year:

Audible, Bolt DOro, Hofburg, justify, Vino Rosso, My Boy Jack, Noble Indy, Magnum Moon and Combatant.

Note: Solomini and Quip did not qualify because they lost 2 lengths or more from the six furlong call to the finish of their 9 furlong prep races.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Originally Posted by sbcaris

My angle is as follows: A colt must achieve the final 3/8 of a 9 furlong prep race in 37 4/5 or less or run the final eighth of a mile in 12 4/5 or less. And also must not have lost 2 lengths or more from the 6 furlong call to the finish of a 9 furlong prep. Here are the qualifiers this year:

Audible, Bolt DOro, Hofburg, justify, Vino Rosso, My Boy Jack, Noble Indy, Magnum Moon and Combatant.

Note: Solomini and Quip did not qualify because they lost 2 lengths or more from the six furlong call to the finish of their 9 furlong prep races.

And when you factor Buckpasser - X it makes Audible, Vino, Bolt, Hofburg, and Combatant even stronger plays.

[Mc990]

Originally Posted by sbcaris

My angle is as follows: A colt must achieve the final 3/8 of a 9 furlong prep race in 37 4/5 or less or run the final eighth of a mile in 12 4/5 or less. And also must not have lost 2 lengths or more from the 6 furlong call to the finish of a 9 furlong prep. Here are the qualifiers this year:

Audible, Bolt DOro, Hofburg, justify, Vino Rosso, My Boy Jack, Noble Indy, Magnum Moon and Combatant.

Note: Solomini and Quip did not qualify because they lost 2 lengths or more from the six furlong call to the finish of their 9 furlong prep races.

I'm sure you've enjoyed success on some level with this system but I have to contend your point on Quip and Solomini...

How does losing 2 or more lengths from the 6f call have any relevance? Example- what if the winner freaks and draws off in the stretch to win by 10? Is it not possible for the 2nd place horse to "qualify" on final fractions and theoretically have run the 2nd best race out of all the preps??

If you're (unknowingly) implying that there needs to be a track variant assigned to put the final fractions into proper context, then I can agree with that.... however, that being said, it still doesn't make my first point false.

You are obviously respected on this forum so I'd be curious to hear your take on this....

[CincyHorseplayer]

In the last 26 years only 2 horses have finished further than 2 lengths back in their final 9f prep. Thunder Gulch and Mine That Bird. But to Thunder's credit he raced in 2, 9furlong preps and won the Florida Derby. Quip and Solomini were never in the race at all so I'd be hesitant to say the least to give them a pass for their finishes.

[Wiley]

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer

In the last 26 years only 2 horses have finished further than 2 lengths back in their final 9f prep. Thunder Gulch and Mine That Bird.

I think you can add Giacomo to that list. Can't remember how far back he was in the SA derby, but he finished fourth and think it was maybe 3 or 4 lengths.

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by Wiley

I think you can add Giacomo to that list. Can't remember how far back he was in the SA derby, but he finished fourth and think it was maybe 3 or 4 lengths.

Giacomo finished 4th by 2 lengths in the Santa Anita derby