Final Fractions

[Blenheim]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

He’s got double Buckpasser-x through the tail female. It’s gotta be where the stamina is coming from in his seemingly weak distance pedigree. The last three non Raise A Native Derby winners ran a fast final 3/8th and had Buckpasser-x; Nyquist, Chrome, Orb. I’m not convinced he’s the real deal for 10F with that Storm Cat line on top but he has a reasonable shot to break the jinx. I will grudgingly use in the final Future pool.

I sense your belief in the Buckpasser-x.



As I’ve written I’m no pedigree expert and I don’t know anything about it. However, I have an open mind and if it’s a factor I can learn and use that benefits my handicapping, I’m all in. I’m gonna be giving it a deeper look.



With respect to the Storm Cat sire line on top, I too read some time back that there has never been that type that can get the Derby distance and there have been quite a few attempts; cautiously optimistic. A Derby prep win does not guarantee the same come Derby day.



Sometimes I think . . . it’s not so much the ability of the horse in question, it’s the bums he is running against.

[Afleet]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

He’s got double Buckpasser-x through the tail female. It’s gotta be where the stamina is coming from in his seemingly weak distance pedigree. The last three non Raise A Native Derby winners ran a fast final 3/8th and had Buckpasser-x; Nyquist, Chrome, Orb. I’m not convinced he’s the real deal for 10F with that Storm Cat line on top but he has a reasonable shot to break the jinx. I will grudgingly use in the final Future pool.

I'm w/you on this-not convinced. I'm leaning towards tossing him completely out of the super. That Round Table, Private Account, Buckpasser and Tom Fool are far back in the pedigree

[Mc990]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

He’s got double Buckpasser-x through the tail female. It’s gotta be where the stamina is coming from in his seemingly weak distance pedigree. The last three non Raise A Native Derby winners ran a fast final 3/8th and had Buckpasser-x; Nyquist, Chrome, Orb. I’m not convinced he’s the real deal for 10F with that Storm Cat line on top but he has a reasonable shot to break the jinx. I will grudgingly use in the final Future pool.

You're almost assured to get a better projected price by waiting until derby day if you must use him.... averaging in the fact of course that he may not even start.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

He’s got double Buckpasser-x through the tail female. It’s gotta be where the stamina is coming from in his seemingly weak distance pedigree. The last three non Raise A Native Derby winners ran a fast final 3/8th and had Buckpasser-x; Nyquist, Chrome, Orb. I’m not convinced he’s the real deal for 10F with that Storm Cat line on top but he has a reasonable shot to break the jinx. I will grudgingly use in the final Future pool.

Those 3 aren't the obscure Buckpasser X they are the less obscure Nasrullah lines. You obviously don't believe in that one though. These bloodline handicapping means change over time and I think this is the next reincarnation. Can't prove it but looking at pedigrees back to the first Derby this is what my intuition is telling me.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer

Those 3 aren't the obscure Buckpasser X they are the less obscure Nasrullah lines. You obviously don't believe in that one though. These bloodline handicapping means change over time and I think this is the next reincarnation. Can't prove it but looking at pedigrees back to the first Derby this is what my intuition is telling me.

Buckpasser-x comes from the dam side. Nyquist, Chrome, and Orb had it via daughters of Buckpasser. It’s a small sample size but Buckpasser-x horses that run a fast final 3/8 hit the KY Derby exacta about 50% of the time. Heck, Chrome and Commanding Curve had it.

[SecretAgentMan]

So what are the horses that qualify under the fractions system, or will you wait until all the preps are done?

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

So what are the horses that qualify under the fractions system, or will you wait until all the preps are done?

Wait for the final 9F prep. Horses running a sub 38 second final 3/8th are Derby win candidates. Top two in FL Derby met the fractions and Buckpasser angle.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

Buckpasser-x comes from the dam side. Nyquist, Chrome, and Orb had it via daughters of Buckpasser. It’s a small sample size but Buckpasser-x horses that run a fast final 3/8 hit the KY Derby exacta about 50% of the time. Heck, Chrome and Commanding Curve had it.

It certainly is a strong positive but im not sure about the 50% part. Seems high, I could be wrong...

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

It certainly is a strong positive but im not sure about the 50% part. Seems high, I could be wrong...

It really is around 50% provided the horse also ran a fast final 3/8th in a big 9F prep. This tidbit courtesy of Stanley Caris. The exacta impact value is around 6.00. They are hitting the exacta 600% more than chance. This is why I will play Audible even though I despise Storm Cats. Good Magic and King Zachary have the Buckpasser-x but we await their fractions.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

It really is around 50% provided the horse also ran a fast final 3/8th in a big 9F prep. This tidbit courtesy of Stanley Caris. The exacta impact value is around 6.00. They are hitting the exacta 600% more than chance. This is why I will play Audible even though I despise Storm Cats. Good Magic and King Zachary have the Buckpasser-x but we await their fractions.

Your intensity over the years and the good work by Stan is well respected over here. I try to temper myself but always get Derby fever at some point! Great obsession to share F2!

[PowerUpPaynter]

Santa Anita Derby, Bluegrass, Wood Memorial final fractions.

Justify 37.11 / 12.70
Bolt d'Oro 37.37 / 12.96
Instilled Regard 38.09 / 13.00
Good Magic 38.21 / 13.31
Flameaway 38.55 / 13.31
Free Drop Billy 38.46 / 13.23
Vino Rosso 37.59 / 12.81
Enticed 38.27 / 13.30

[PowerUpPaynter]

Magnum Moon 36.47 / 11.99
Quip 37.13 / 12.33
Solomini 36.81 / 12.20
Combatant 36.30 / 12.16

[Afleet]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

Magnum Moon 36.47 / 11.99
Quip 37.13 / 12.33
Solomini 36.81 / 12.20
Combatant 36.30 / 12.16

Those are the fastest closing fractions of all the major derby preps? I have no idea what to do w/Solomini in the Derby

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by Afleet

Those are the fastest closing fractions of all the major derby preps? I have no idea what to do w/Solomini in the Derby

doesnt the pace of the race have to factor into any discussion about how they came home?

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

doesnt the pace of the race have to factor into any discussion about how they came home?

Every American horse in the gate hit the the 3/4 pole last out in 1:11 plus. There is your pace. I generally don’t concern myself with 1/4 and 1/2 fractions for 9F runs.