Final Fractions

[Blenheim]

Originally Posted by sbcaris

My angle is as follows: A colt must achieve the final 3/8 of a 9 furlong prep race in 37 4/5 or less or run the final eighth of a mile in 12 4/5 or less. And also must not have lost 2 lengths or more from the 6 furlong call to the finish of a 9 furlong prep. Here are the qualifiers this year:

Audible, Bolt DOro, Hofburg, justify, Vino Rosso, My Boy Jack, Noble Indy, Magnum Moon and Combatant.

Note: Solomini and Quip did not qualify because they lost 2 lengths or more from the six furlong call to the finish of their 9 furlong prep races.

Stan’s “angle” leaves us with nine contenders.


The percentages dictate eliminating the Storm Cat line, the 0/51ers, which includes Audible, Justify, My Boy Jack and Combatant. Five contenders remaining: Bolt d’Oro, Hofburg, Vino Rosso, Noble Indy and Magnum Moon.


Bolt d’Oro ran well as a two-year-old, not so well as a three-year-old. Vino Rosso’s form cycles up and down, unpredictable, topped off at BRIS 102, I don’t see him improving. Magnum Moon’s form cycle appears to have topped off at BRIS 100, he is cycling back. I eliminate those three from the five. It was tough to eliminate Bolt d’Oro, but I must.


Two contenders remaining: Noble Indy and Hofburg.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by Blenheim

Stan’s “angle” leaves us with nine contenders.


The percentages dictate eliminating the Storm Cat line, the 0/51ers, which includes Audible, Justify, My Boy Jack and Combatant. Five contenders remaining: Bolt d’Oro, Hofburg, Vino Rosso, Noble Indy and Magnum Moon.


Bolt d’Oro ran well as a two-year-old, not so well as a three-year-old. Vino Rosso’s form cycles up and down, unpredictable, topped off at BRIS 102, I don’t see him improving. Magnum Moon’s form cycle appears to have topped off at BRIS 100, he is cycling back. I eliminate those three from the five. It was tough to eliminate Bolt d’Oro, but I must.


Two contenders remaining: Noble Indy and Hofburg.

I don't see how you can say Bolt Doro has not run well as a 3yo. Finishing 2nd and one by a nose to two of the best colts on the trail and running faster than nearly everybody else hardly is "not so well". Magnum's prior race was definitely better.

Couldn't take your bold stance but go for it brother!

[AirNate012]

With all these angles and curses this year, I've decided to toss the entire field as no one can win, and I'll be playing Will Rogers on Cinco De Mayo.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by Blenheim

Stan’s “angle” leaves us with nine contenders.


The percentages dictate eliminating the Storm Cat line, the 0/51ers, which includes Audible, Justify, My Boy Jack and Combatant. Five contenders remaining: Bolt d’Oro, Hofburg, Vino Rosso, Noble Indy and Magnum Moon.


Bolt d’Oro ran well as a two-year-old, not so well as a three-year-old. Vino Rosso’s form cycles up and down, unpredictable, topped off at BRIS 102, I don’t see him improving. Magnum Moon’s form cycle appears to have topped off at BRIS 100, he is cycling back. I eliminate those three from the five. It was tough to eliminate Bolt d’Oro, but I must.


Two contenders remaining: Noble Indy and Hofburg.

Your tag says "Trust the percentages". Raise A Native sire line horses that fit the fractions angle hit the win pool 400% more than they should based on chance alone. Always Dreaming did it last year. American Pharoah in 2015. Buckpasser-x horses hit the exacta with absolute ridiculous impact value. Vino Rosso hits on both angles. Hofburg fits the latter. Noble Indy is female family 1 (another angle). I'll certainly play that trifecta combo.

Originally Posted by AirNate012

With all these angles and curses this year, I've decided to toss the entire field as no one can win, and I'll be playing Will Rogers on Cinco De Mayo.

Thanks for sharing.

[Vinman]

Hi Stan:

I thought this might be a good time to do a quick recap of which Kentucky Derby starters have qualified over the years on your dual factor of Buckpasser in the X passing position and final 3/8ths fraction in a major prep.

I'm going to list below each prior year qualifier that I have listed in my spreadsheet by year, with the 7 Kentucky Derby winners in caps:

1988 - seeking the gold

1989 - dansil & triple buck

1990 - UNBRIDLED & summer squall

1991 & 1992 - no qualifiers

1993 - prairie bayou

1994 - no qualifiers

1995 - tejano run & talkin man

1996 - cavonnier

1997 - no qualifiers

1998 - REAL QUIET

1999 - vicar

2000 - aptitude

2001 & 2002 - no qualifiers

2003 - FUNNY CIDE & empire maker

2004 - tapit

2005 - Bellamy road

2006, 2007 & 2008 - no qualifiers

2009 - dunkirk, summer bird & west side bernie

2010 - SUPER SAVER

2011 - archarcharch & comma to the top

2012 - bodemeister

2013 - ORB

2014 - CALIFORNIA CHROME, ride on curlin, wicked strong & wildcat red

2015 - no qualifiers

2016 - NYQUIST

2017 - gunnavera & patch

Let me know if this list is complete or if any of the above horses don't qualify.

Assuming the list is correct, to obtain the current impact value of this dual factor, we take the percentage of Kentucky Derby winners who have it....in this case, 7 Derby winners from the 20 Kentucky Derbys since '88 in which at least one qualifier appears. That comes to .35 (7 divided by 20). We then divide the .35 by the percentage of Kentucky Derby starters that qualify....31 total qualifying starters among the 367 total starters in the 20 Derbys with at least one qualifier. That percentage is .8447. So when we divide .35 by by .8847, we come up with a rather powerful Impact Value of 4.14.

Stan, would you confirm this year's qualifiers for the factor and let me know if we have all the prior year qualifiers listed correctly?

Thanks,


Vinman

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by Vinman

Hi Stan:

I thought this might be a good time to do a quick recap of which Kentucky Derby starters have qualified over the years on your dual factor of Buckpasser in the X passing position and final 3/8ths fraction in a major prep...

I would encourage you to calculate the place pool as well.

Bodemeister, Empire Maker, Aptitude, Cavonnier, Tejano Run, Prairie Bayou, Summer Squall. Easy Goer. The exacta inpact value is pretty hot.

Only problem this year is there are several qualifiers to play with.

[Blenheim]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

Your tag says "Trust the percentages". Raise A Native sire line horses that fit the fractions angle hit the win pool 400% more than they should based on chance alone. Always Dreaming did it last year. American Pharoah in 2015. Buckpasser-x horses hit the exacta with absolute ridiculous impact value. Vino Rosso hits on both angles. Hofburg fits the latter. Noble Indy is female family 1 (another angle). I'll certainly play that trifecta combo.

Thanks for the info, I'm lookin' forward to makin' that bet. From here on in, it'll be interesting to watch and follow their workouts and how they take to the track.

[Gerard02]

If you look at Stan's qualifiers, you will notice they all came out of his 6 Major prep races. Observe, also, that many Derby winners came out of the 6 major prep races and qualified on the final 3/8 and final 1/8 rule. Factor in the Buckpasser-X and you have a strong exacta combo. Over the last 17 years, the majority of winners from these Prep races was from the Florida Derby. I dont have the fig on me, but I think they were around 7. The others ranged between 2-3, The Santa Anita and Wood following up. Since, we have not seen a Wood winner in so long, do not rule it out with Vino Rosso. Although, he is not a sure thing...who really is? New York horses have not fared well, but each year is different.

[Gerard02]

Here are my top horses after doing some early work. This is subject to any changes or scratches, but so far, these are my top runners:


Bolt D'Oro
Vino Rosso
Hofburg
Audible
Justify
Magnum Moon


I know everyone, Including SbCaris are looking at Mend with his destruction of the field at the UAE Derby, but until one of those horses actually wins a Derby, I can't count him in. I might put a win bet on him as a saver, but these 6 will be one of two exotic combos I will play; thanks to some overtime that I did a few days ago.

[Gerard02]

I'll be doing my own internal fractions of their races and plotting their average time for each furlong. I'm afraid I won't be able to do the adjusted times, unless someone can help me there. I don't have the programs to make the adjustments. I still do everything by hand on paper. LOL. Primitive, eh?

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by Gerard02

If you look at Stan's qualifiers...

Stan's methodology has worked well through the years. In fact, 3 of the top 4 on his checklist filled the super last year and 4 of the top 5 filled the Hi5. The one missing horse was Battle of Midway who had the conduit mare angle like a couple other bombers (Golden Soul) over the years. His recommendations were not so hot. The problem this year is there are so many fraction qualifiers and Buckpasser fraction qualifiers. It would take deeper pockets to play the entire crew on top. There is only one Raise A Native horse meeting the fractions angle (versus 4 last year) and I will certainly play that one barring a hideous post albeit with less confidence than my picks in previous years. The checklist is bound to have Vino Rosso on top followed by Bolt. I sure as heck hope that hits considering I have a $3 box paying 900-1 on the top side in Pool 3. The conduit mare trifecta bomber angle this year would include Lone Sailor.

[Gerard02]

Stans recommendations are based on value. In 2015, American Pharoah was on the top of his list for the Preakness, but he suggested not playing him because he thought there was no value there. I played the horse in the exacta wheel and took it. I like his system and I'll play it again. I have spotted some variations and will work on them. If his list is still available this year, I'll purchase it. His list helped me nail a sweet exacta, Triple, Super combo in the 2017 Breeders' Cup.