A Chalky Exacta

[PowerUpPaynter]

Justify, Good Magic, Bolt d'Oro, Mendelssohn, Audible, Magnum Moon, Vino Rosso... Id kinda be shocked if a combo of those horses dont land 1-2. The top of this crop is just too good for a 20-1 to sneak into the exacta. The money will have to be made in the bottoms of the Tri & Super.. or pick 3 or 4 if you can find some price horses.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I'll hedge on 3 tiers of denominations in the P3 and maybe even double to the derby. But even on that P3 I will be top heavy to maybe 3-4 contenders tops. The P4 I will likely stretch in other races to have bigger combinations to fewer in the derby also. I don't want to have enormous tickets with a ton of combinations at low denominations horizontal or vertical. As for the race itself I know I will make some sort of decision. I contemplated not betting the race at all after seeing the last pool exacta payoffs. They look fairly pedestrian. I can see myself foregoing a win bet. This is a contentious field at the top. I am having a hard time narrowing an in race bet down to even 6-8 combinations in the top 2 slots much less plunking down a win bet. So I'm setting my minimum odds of 8-1 if I make a win bet and double digits on an exotic return or no play. I feel confident in my horizontal attack plan. I find myself arguing over pairs of horses I see as similar. And it's tough! You might not see it this way but the pairs I am fighting about:Mendelssohn and Justify. Bolt Doro and Good Magic. Vino Rosso and and Audible. Magnum Moon just has me stumped on what to do with him. I can't split Vino Rosso and Audible. I think they are both talented with the best from the former to come. I can drop Good Magic to 3rd tier status and even Magnum. So that leaves me with the strangest of decisions. Who to second tier from whom I think are the top 2 most purely talented colts this year in Mendelssohn and Justify? I don't want to have an A ticket blown up without including either but the payoffs to others will be juicier. Decisions decisions!

[f2tornado]

I would not rule out a couple double digit odds horses htting the trifecta just yet. It would pay reasonably well in that scenario but if it is like 2015 or 2016 then I'm not making any money on the wager. I'm thinking of doing a 2x7x10 trifecta. That's only $48 for the half buck version. I'm not sold on Justify but could add on top as a saver of sorts which adds $24 to the ticket. I already have a bunch of exacta combos in the Future pools so I'm not inclined to put much more bankroll on them. The rest can go into the horizontal pools.

[Crkillian]

Hasn’t the exacta been fairly “unchalky” for place since the points system started? I think the favorite has won most of them since then but place seems to be a bomb more often than not these days.
Not sure that holds true this year, but I need to find the pattern for place and build a saver with points leader on top.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Crkillian

Hasn’t the exacta been fairly “unchalky” for place since the points system started? I think the favorite has won most of them since then but place seems to be a bomb more often than not these days.
Not sure that holds true this year, but I need to find the pattern for place and build a saver with points leader on top.

It does seem like a long shot has clunked up for 2nd quite a bit.

Going back a bit further, seems like a decent angle in general:

I don't know if it will hold over the next 15 years or not....


2017 Always Dreaming Lookin At Lee! Battle of Midway Classic Empire 20
2016 Nyquist Exaggerator Gun Runner Mohaymen 20
2015 American Pharoah Firing Line Dortmund Frosted 18
2014 California Chrome Commanding Curve! Danza Wicked Strong 19
2013 Orb Golden Soul! Revolutionary Normandy Invasion 19
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2012 I'll Have Another Bodemeister Dullahan Went The Day Well 20
2011 Animal Kingdom Nehro? Mucho Macho Man Shackleford 19
2010 Super Saver Ice Box! Paddy O'Prado Make Music for Me 20
2009 Mine That Bird Pioneerof the Nile Musket Man Papa Clem 19
2008 Big Brown Eight Belles Denis of Cork Tale of Ekati 20
2007 Street Sense Hard Spun Curlin Imawildandcrazyguy 20
2006 Barbaro Bluegrass Cat! Steppenwolfer Jazil 20
2005 Giacomo!! Closing Argument!! Afleet Alex Don't Get Mad 20

[Parkview_Pirate]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

Justify, Good Magic, Bolt d'Oro, Mendelssohn, Audible, Magnum Moon, Vino Rosso... Id kinda be shocked if a combo of those horses dont land 1-2. The top of this crop is just too good for a 20-1 to sneak into the exacta. The money will have to be made in the bottoms of the Tri & Super.. or pick 3 or 4 if you can find some price horses.

I was thinking along similar lines, and if you knew how my Derby picks usually run, that'd influence you to start looking at the bombs....

Actually, you drop Justify and Good Magic out of the exacta, and it's gonna pay pretty well, IMHO. Pace, post position, trip, etc., all play a big part of the Derby result, and while I agree that the top contenders look strong, that doesn't necessarily mean more than one of them fires and gets the distance.

Since I have a small futures bet on Enticed, I'm sure I'll have myself convinced by post time he gets in the exacta....

[BlueChip@DRF]

You can pair up the post-time favorite with an S-type runner, especially if he made it in from the bubble.

[GMB@BP]

Many times going for a win in a race isn't conducive to running in the money.