Quote:
Originally Posted by Scamper
Now then, for any given track, do not play
races with any of the following characteristics.
This will limit you to only playing one to three
races for the day.
- do not play maiden races (which includes
first time starters)
- do not play races that have more than
11 horses running.
- do not play races shorter than 5.5 furlongs.
- do not play races longer than 1 1/8 miles in distance.
- do not play races for 2 year olds only.
- do not play races where there are five entries
with program odds of 5/1 or less.
- do not play races with less than six runners.
When I say do not play them, what I really mean
is do not bet them. The risk is high and the
payoffs are low. I can't tell you how many years
it took to finally figure this out.
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It is difficult to adequately explain how many strategic errors are expressed here, but let me offer the following counter examples.
[1] Your screening criteria would have you playing a 7f dirt race for Clm16000nw2L over the Hopeful at Saratoga.
[2] You will miss most off-the-turf races which are notoriously misbet and provide value - this due to your field size restriction.
[3] You are allowing the morning line maker to screen your races based on potentially inaccurate assessments.
Your rules make one think that harness racing is right up your alley.
Honestly, I do not understand the concept that the "risk is high and the payoffs are low". How is this measured in your context? To me, this sounds as if you are not evaluating value, only the toteboard payouts.
