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Old 05-06-2020, 01:37 AM   #1
coachv30
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Interesting long shot angle that I've been following

I will post some examples of winners tomorrow but until then......here's the angle.

1) Horse is coming out of a Key race (or what can be assumed as a key race with at least two finishers in italics) two races back.

2) Last out, horse stepped up in class, showed good position early in the race, then faded.

3) Today, he/she either cuts back one turn or drops back down to the conditions two races back.


I've been spending a lot more time lately studying the right side of the PP's and it's been interesting.


More detail and examples to come tomorrow.
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Old 05-06-2020, 10:18 AM   #2
usfgeology
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Originally Posted by coachv30 View Post
I will post some examples of winners tomorrow but until then......here's the angle.

1) Horse is coming out of a Key race (or what can be assumed as a key race with at least two finishers in italics) two races back.

2) Last out, horse stepped up in class, showed good position early in the race, then faded.

3) Today, he/she either cuts back one turn or drops back down to the conditions two races back.


I've been spending a lot more time lately studying the right side of the PP's and it's been interesting.


More detail and examples to come tomorrow.
I'll be on the lookout Coach. Deep diving into Key Races has been on my agenda. Oaklawn really highlighted my cognitive bias (see I'm learning) to ignore horses exiting key races that finished well back. It's simple to pick up on a horse that finished "best of the rest" by 8 lengths to a next time out winner. It's harder (for me) to land on a horse that finished 6th in the same race. But that's where the value can be found. Combining trip and condition analysis seems like a logical next step.

Even better would be if you could identify a key race earlier than the rest of the betting public...
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Old 05-06-2020, 10:24 AM   #3
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Some helpful notes:

1) Real hard to do......its a manually thing or need a photogenic brain to remember races.....Looking at the form , you can see thru the company line if horses won their next out....but what happens if the 4 -6-8 horses in that race won....How would you know if that was the key race?

2) Its OK...you can see that in the form

3) OK too, you can see that in the form...

But an additional help is to find out if the trainer had success in the past with those tactics...

On all three , if you can work it , then its a excellent tool because its hidden


PS- As The Hat , Jim Bradshaw, would say...the LEFT is the most important part of the form..

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Old 05-06-2020, 10:33 AM   #4
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Originally Posted by mikesal57 View Post
Some helpful notes:

1) Real hard to do......its a manually thing or need a photogenic brain to remember races.....Looking at the form , you can see thru the company line if horses won their next out....but what happens if the 4 -6-8 horses in that race won....How would you know if that was the key race?

2) Its OK...you can see that in the form

3) OK too, you can see that in the form...

But an additional help is to find out if the trainer had success in the past with those tactics...

On all three , if you can work it , then its a excellent tool because its hidden


PS- As The Hat , Jim Bradshaw, would say...the LEFT is the most important part of the form..
The Insider Picks and Power Plays, Winners Choice and possible DRF Quick Sheets show if a horse was Exiting a Key Race. Cool idea.
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Old 05-06-2020, 10:39 AM   #5
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Unless its FREE....want no part of it....
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Old 05-06-2020, 10:46 AM   #6
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The Insider Picks and Power Plays, Winners Choice and possible DRF Quick Sheets show if a horse was Exiting a Key Race. Cool idea.
The system calls for a key race two races back, not last race
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Old 05-06-2020, 12:02 PM   #7
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Unless its FREE....want no part of it....
.

this is where it should be............FREE.
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Old 05-06-2020, 01:37 PM   #8
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Since some points were brought up...here are some additions to this angle.

1) Yes...the initial angle called for Key race two back. Mainly due to the hopes that this will boost the odds a bit due to some handicappers / programs that only look at the last out. However, if the last out has even ONE comeback winner that only adds to the validity.

2) When I see TWO comback winners out of the three listed in the finishers on the right....I don't truly know if that's a Key race by definition. I have to assume that there was another in the mix or another soon to come from that race.


I will post some examples later when I'm finished working. I'm glad this sparked a little conversation.
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Old 05-06-2020, 01:46 PM   #9
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Example 1

Here's one for starters...this one meets a lot of criteria as well. But I think the items I point out here help.

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Old 05-06-2020, 01:53 PM   #10
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Example 2

Example Two

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Old 05-06-2020, 01:57 PM   #11
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Example 3

This one came out of a Key race last out with a poor performance... Big drop though..

I have more to post later...

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Old 05-06-2020, 02:04 PM   #12
coachv30
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Originally Posted by mikesal57 View Post
Some helpful notes:

1) Real hard to do......its a manually thing or need a photogenic brain to remember races.....Looking at the form , you can see thru the company line if horses won their next out....but what happens if the 4 -6-8 horses in that race won....How would you know if that was the key race?

2) Its OK...you can see that in the form

3) OK too, you can see that in the form...

But an additional help is to find out if the trainer had success in the past with those tactics...

On all three , if you can work it , then its a excellent tool because its hidden


PS- As The Hat , Jim Bradshaw, would say...the LEFT is the most important part of the form..
I still focus heavily on the left......but if there's a day where I'm just spot playing........

I handicap by hand and sometimes, I don't have the time nor energy to put in the 3+ hours.
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Old 05-06-2020, 02:16 PM   #13
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Sounds interesting - note each example won off layoff as I see the lay off line for each example - that can enhance odds - btw would like to see wkouts if any .
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Old 05-06-2020, 02:32 PM   #14
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Sounds interesting - note each example won off layoff as I see the lay off line for each example - that can enhance odds - btw would like to see wkouts if any .
I will include the workouts on the rest of my examples...great point with the layoff.
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Old 05-06-2020, 02:52 PM   #15
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The system calls for a key race two races back, not last race
Whoops sorry.
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