Rut

[Poindexter]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I honestly think that this is the very first time that I've ever written something like this to you...so, I don't know why you think that you get "under my skin". I recall one other interaction between us, when you criticized me for giving "irresponsible" betting advice to our highly-impressionable folks here...and I don't remember giving you much in the way of a reply then. But I could be wrong.

Truth be told...I now try to avoid the "learning" discussions that I used to get into here in the past. I find that an online forum isn't really the proper venue by which to try and "teach", or "learn"...or to change anyone's mind. In the end...it all becomes just a waste of time. The reason that I responded to you as I did was because your post seemed to me to imply that I was somehow replying to something that you yourself had said earlier...when the reality is that I wasn't thinking about your post at all when I was typing.

Yes...I disagree with most of what you say here...and you probably disagree with most of what I say. How could it be otherwise...when our experiences in the game are so dissimilar? As I said...there is nothing at all wrong with "disagreeing"...unless we insist on changing each-other's mind. And we aren't.

That is actuallly too bad, because it is this type of discussion which has made this forum such a valuable place over it's many years of existence. I was learning from and reading this forum long before I ever posted. Much of what I do today, is based on building blocks I picked up over the years here and built upon. It is not about me trying to change your mind or you trying to change my mind and you will rarely see me engaging in that activity (other than the subject of takeouts or rebates ). It is about a bunch of us discussing a topic and the reader forming their own opinions and conclusions. I am not selling anything, nor are you. It is not about any of us changing the world as individuals, it is about collectively sharing our opinions and viewpoints and providing value to the reader (which includes us) who may not even be able to articulate much of what was learned here, but assuredly if they spend enough time here they are learning.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

That is actuallly too bad, because it is this type of discussion which has made this forum such a valuable place over it's many years of existence. I was learning from and reading this forum long before I ever posted. Much of what I do today, is based on building blocks I picked up over the years here and built upon. It is not about me trying to change your mind or you trying to change my mind and you will rarely see me engaging in that activity (other than the subject of takeouts or rebates ). It is about a bunch of us discussing a topic and the reader forming their own opinions and conclusions. I am not selling anything, nor are you. It is not about any of us changing the world as individuals, it is about collectively sharing our opinions and viewpoints and providing value to the reader (which includes us) who may not even be able to articulate much of what was learned here, but assuredly if they spend enough time here they are learning.

This is pretty close to what I said in the post right before yours.

But our conversations, which start out civil, sometimes turn into "arguments"...when we try to prove that our opinions are more valid than those with whom we disagree. That's what I've seen...and that's why I've decided to "stop arguing" about horses. I've now taken my "arguments" to the off-topics section...where they belong.

I've made a habit of talking to a couple of the members here on the phone. In one phone conversation...I got to know them better than I had while online-chatting with them for YEARS. That's what exposed me to the limitations of online-chatting...and that's when I decided to get less "serious" about online debates.

[AstrosFan]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I've made a habit of talking to a couple of the members here on the phone. In one phone conversation...I got to know them better than I had while online-chatting with them for YEARS. That's what exposed me to the limitations of online-chatting...and that's when I decided to get less "serious" about online debates.

I enjoyed this last paragraph immensely and that's why I dislike texting and / or chatting via email. Humans are slowly losing the art of in-person conversations. Every time I go out, someone has to have their phone in the palm of their hand or on the table when out to eat dinner. It's truly ridiculous! The internet in general has created so many positive things and so many negatives too.

Back to the rut topic...

Record keeping is important in this game and we can study the hell out of any race, but it's what we do betting wise that makes or breaks us.

[AndyC]

Because most handicapping has an element of subjectivity, it would be foolish to overlook the affects that a prolonged losing streak can have on the decision making process. If you find yourself second-guessing your decisions it's probably time to back off.

I find the same to be true for the betting process. A bettor comfortable with $500 win bets might find a jump to the $1000 level to be uncomfortable whereby it affects the entire handicapping handicapping process. If you have to talk yourself into making a higher level bet you probably aren't ready to play at that level. I know a few well-known handicappers who can't pull the trigger on a large bet. That's not a knock it is reality. Each player has to find their own comfort zone.

[AltonKelsey]

I suspect its not the size of the bet itself that's hoses people, but the difference between that bet and their normal wager.

So if you're a $100 bettor, and step up to $500 for a 'prime bet', you have too much ego invested in the play , and nerves set in.

If the horse loses, you suffer a double blow, to your wallet and your self esteem.

Something to be said for avoiding the issue and betting the same or nearly so on everything.

[Afleet]

Originally Posted by menifee

I have had a tough year handicapping. Just can't seem to find a winner literally. I've stopped playing after Saratoga and have just been handicapping replays. I'm still terrible - I looked at Woodbine today and would not have had a single winner. I feel like a beginner again. Anyone ever else find themselves in this position? I feel like a hitter in a 4 month slump.

I had my ass handed to me @Woodbine yesterday. I thought I was reading the wrong PPs. Normally I would be playing Kee at this time of the year. Can't wait until Oaklawn opens. No BS turf races where a drop dead closer like Rainha De Bateria gets sent to the lead for some unknown reason and fades in the stretch.

[menifee]

Guys,

Thanks for the great input. I've decided to take a long break. Usually I take a long break after Breeders Cup till April, but this year I'll start it early. I may dip back in the pool on Breeders Cup with some plays as I've got some strong convictions in some of those races, but that's it.

The point about record keeping is tremendous. My large win bets are ok, everything else in the verticals and horizontals is pitiful.

Frankly, I think a lot of this has to do with confidence.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by menifee

Guys,

Thanks for the great input. I've decided to take a long break. Usually I take a long break after Breeders Cup till April, but this year I'll start it early. I may dip back in the pool on Breeders Cup with some plays as I've got some strong convictions in some of those races, but that's it.

The point about record keeping is tremendous. My large win bets are ok, everything else in the verticals and horizontals is pitiful.

Frankly, I think a lot of this has to do with confidence.

Can I suggest just one parting point? Play the BC. Get early PP's and get comfortable with them. Do extensive research into the prep races and the tracks that day. Map out a wagering strategy for each day. Put minimum odds on races where you take on verticals. Do everything you can to where you know win or lose there wasn't any effort left out. Then you can at least rest assured during your break that it is not entirely you at fault. And see where you are at in a few months. Good luck!

[stuball]

I agree that bet size is such a individual thing that comfort zone is very very important -- I have always thought that a larger bankroll is the thing that would be key to success..Well the kids are all grown up and I am retired so the bankroll is bigger than in my younger years...but as many times as I have tried to increase my bets just as many times I have felt uncomfortable and selections that were clear before become clouded with doubt..what am I missing? Did I do something wrong? Also outside influences can affect your outlook and clarity....I am destined to be what I am ..I read about these people that say you have to make the jump and for a small percentage of people that probably works if you have the right mental makeup...Now that I am older I find physical problems get in the way...I just found out I have fistula (which is a hole) in my temporal bone..It contains the fluid that affects your balance..I had surgery on my ear about 5 years ago and I suspect it may be connected but the surgeon claims otherwise...it leaves me hard to focus and some dizziness......So it it what it is.....Slow is a meaningful word for me now..

Stuball

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by stuball

I agree that bet size is such a individual thing that comfort zone is very very important -- I have always thought that a larger bankroll is the thing that would be key to success..Well the kids are all grown up and I am retired so the bankroll is bigger than in my younger years...but as many times as I have tried to increase my bets just as many times I have felt uncomfortable and selections that were clear before become clouded with doubt..what am I missing? Did I do something wrong? Also outside influences can affect your outlook and clarity....I am destined to be what I am ..I read about these people that say you have to make the jump and for a small percentage of people that probably works if you have the right mental makeup...Now that I am older I find physical problems get in the way...I just found out I have fistula (which is a hole) in my temporal bone..It contains the fluid that affects your balance..I had surgery on my ear about 5 years ago and I suspect it may be connected but the surgeon claims otherwise...it leaves me hard to focus and some dizziness......So it it what it is.....Slow is a meaningful word for me now..

Stuball

Stuball, my sympathies, as my wife has a similar malady since we've retired and I see her frustration. Focus on what's important

[Prof.Factor]

Originally Posted by menifee

Guys,

Thanks for the great input. I've decided to take a long break. Usually I take a long break after Breeders Cup till April, but this year I'll start it early. I may dip back in the pool on Breeders Cup with some plays as I've got some strong convictions in some of those races, but that's it.

The point about record keeping is tremendous. My large win bets are ok, everything else in the verticals and horizontals is pitiful.

Frankly, I think a lot of this has to do with confidence.

In contrary, I would be doing double duty in finding out WHY. No way I go 0 for 10 and not know why.
If you're "not even close" during the stretch then it's time to figure out why and not disregard it as some slump to
be ignored. Ignore it and it will repeat. It's time to up your game.
I think "down-time" is the worst thing for a handicapper. We need to be aware of everything, everyday. That's when you're confident because your are in-the-know.
Woodbine wasn't an excuse, I played that card.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by Prof.Factor

In contrary, I would be doing double duty in finding out WHY. No way I go 0 for 10 and not know why.
If you're "not even close" during the stretch then it's time to figure out why and not disregard it as some slump to
be ignored. Ignore it and it will repeat. It's time to up your game.
I think "down-time" is the worst thing for a handicapper. We need to be aware of everything, everyday. That's when you're confident because your are in-the-know.
Woodbine wasn't an excuse, I played that card.

Everyone has an opinion, some are good and some are like the above post....Everyone needs a layoff every once in awhile. When you start going 0 for 25, then you might want to start taking a look under the hood....Variance is a normal and expected part of the game, always.

[zerosky]

Some great advice on this thread. The way I see it as long as you show long term profits then keep plugging away. Bets follow a bernoulli distribution they either win or they don't, long losing runs are expected. As long as you keep doing all the things that enable you to show long term profits then don't change anything.

That said taking a vacation now and again should also be part of the process.

[NJ Stinks]

Not sure I've got anything of value to add but I'll make these points about my horse play:

1. I limit myself to a certain amount each month. Once in a while I do exceed that amount if I really feel like playing - like during the shortish Saratoga meet. But generally speaking if I drop my monthly bankroll in the first week of the month, I'm done playing that month.

2. Like Stuball, I can afford to increase my bets significantly from yesteryear - especially when I think back to my bankrolls when I was in my 20's or 30's. And once in a while I do leap in with both fists on a win bet. But I find I can enjoy ten bucks on a horse to win just as easy as a $20 bet.

3. That's not to say my wagering amounts have not increased over the years. Pick 3's, Pick 4's and Pick 5's make me spread. In fact, if I can't afford to cover every horse I consider a strong contender, I skip the sequence. Because of this last requirement of mine, I usually pass on Pick 4's and Pick 5's unless I comfortably single in at least one race.

Anyway, the monthly limit generally keeps me from losing so much that my handicapping confidence is shaken.

[Prof.Factor]

Originally Posted by Prof.Factor

In contrary, I would be doing double duty in finding out WHY. No way I go 0 for 10 and not know why.
If you're "not even close" during the stretch then it's time to figure out why and not disregard it as some slump to
be ignored. Ignore it and it will repeat. It's time to up your game.
I think "down-time" is the worst thing for a handicapper. We need to be aware of everything, everyday. That's when you're confident because your are in-the-know.
Woodbine wasn't an excuse, I played that card.

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

Everyone has an opinion, some are good and some are like the above post....Everyone needs a layoff every once in awhile. When you start going 0 for 25, then you might want to start taking a look under the hood....Variance is a normal and expected part of the game, always.

You again??
See something WRONG with MY opinion, do ya? .... go figure.


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