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Old 10-12-2017, 12:35 AM   #61
JustRalph
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Originally Posted by AstrosFan View Post
I would LOVE to see the races actually start at the distance, minus the
run-up b/s we do in the states. Aussie racing starts right at the distance marker! What a brilliant idea!!


I wonder what CJ thinks of the run-up when factoring his speed figures. It must be a headache no?
Nah....he rarely mentions it...........
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Old 10-12-2017, 03:31 PM   #62
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I think it's absurd that we have to continue having these conversations about proper timing of races, run up differences, rail settings etc.. It's 2017 and we still don't have accurate times or lengths behind in an industry where "time" is critical to many horse players! That's like asking an investor to buy and sell stocks without knowing the earnings of the company.

However, as a gambler, I'm not so sure this is a such bad thing.

To win, you either have to have better information or a better understanding of it than the masses. If there are flaws in the data that everyone is using (and there are), that's seems like a terrific opportunity to find an edge. If Santa Anita doesn't time a major BC sprint prep correctly, how is that a bad thing if I am one of the few people to know about it or make my figures in a way that wouldn't be impacted by it?

In some perverted (or idealistic) way, by getting pissed off about the condition of the industry data, we are arguing that we want to lose with more accurate data instead of having a better chance to win because we have figured out a way to get around it.
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Old 10-12-2017, 06:26 PM   #63
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Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post

In some perverted (or idealistic) way, by getting pissed off about the condition of the industry data, we are arguing that we want to lose with more accurate data instead of having a better chance to win because we have figured out a way to get around it.
everybody should be privy to correct info.
the time of the race is not very meaningful in and of itself.
it's what you do with what you have that matters.
you are assuming that everybody that has accurate data knows how to use it, and that is a long way from the reality.
nearly everybody loses long term, and so it would stay, regardless of the accuracy of the data.
very few people are willing to do the work, and of those that are, only a small proportion of them will make it work anyway.

for self(when i was involved), every race was timed off video, and there were more errors than you would believe, and that's in jurisdictions that are timed from the gate without run ups.
even the set of gates they used would play a part in the time of the races.
so i guess i had an advantage by having all data verified in various ways, but i also know that if everybody had the accurate info i had, it would make no difference to who won and who lost.
it's not the raw data it's what you do with it.
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Old 10-12-2017, 06:57 PM   #64
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Originally Posted by steveb View Post
everybody should be privy to correct info.
the time of the race is not very meaningful in and of itself.
it's what you do with what you have that matters.
you are assuming that everybody that has accurate data knows how to use it, and that is a long way from the reality.
nearly everybody loses long term, and so it would stay, regardless of the accuracy of the data.
very few people are willing to do the work, and of those that are, only a small proportion of them will make it work anyway.

for self(when i was involved), every race was timed off video, and there were more errors than you would believe, and that's in jurisdictions that are timed from the gate without run ups.
even the set of gates they used would play a part in the time of the races.
so i guess i had an advantage by having all data verified in various ways, but i also know that if everybody had the accurate info i had, it would make no difference to who won and who lost.
it's not the raw data it's what you do with it.
BINGO!
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Old 10-12-2017, 08:45 PM   #65
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Craig explained the process really well with in this weeks Out of the Gate
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Old 10-13-2017, 12:02 AM   #66
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Craig explained the process really well with in this weeks Out of the Gate
http://video.drf.com/detail/videos/o...autoStart=true
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Old 10-13-2017, 06:49 AM   #67
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[QUOTE=cj;2230846]http://video.drf.com/detail/videos/o...autoStart=true[/QUOTE Nice job. Hopefully the boys at SA and Trakus learned a little bit...
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Old 10-13-2017, 08:35 AM   #68
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Quote:
Originally Posted by steveb View Post
everybody should be privy to correct info.
the time of the race is not very meaningful in and of itself.
it's what you do with what you have that matters.
you are assuming that everybody that has accurate data knows how to use it, and that is a long way from the reality.
nearly everybody loses long term, and so it would stay, regardless of the accuracy of the data.
very few people are willing to do the work, and of those that are, only a small proportion of them will make it work anyway.
1. I said that everyone should have the correct data.

2. I disagree with the rest.

Of course some people use the data better than others. But on a net basis, if I am the only one with the correct data or have devised a private methodology that bypasses its flaws, I have a huge edge over the "overall market". That's a much better position to be in than having a battle of wits with other people that have the same information I have.

Bad data gives the smartest players an opening to find an edge. It's a simple reality that conflicts with our more idealistic visions for the sport.

Every time the "public" PPs are improved, it makes it harder for me to find a way to win. That's a simple fact.
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Old 10-13-2017, 08:36 AM   #69
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Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
I think it's absurd that we have to continue having these conversations about proper timing of races, run up differences, rail settings etc.. It's 2017 and we still don't have accurate times or lengths behind in an industry where "time" is critical to many horse players! That's like asking an investor to buy and sell stocks without knowing the earnings of the company.

However, as a gambler, I'm not so sure this is a such bad thing.

To win, you either have to have better information or a better understanding of it than the masses. If there are flaws in the data that everyone is using (and there are), that's seems like a terrific opportunity to find an edge. If Santa Anita doesn't time a major BC sprint prep correctly, how is that a bad thing if I am one of the few people to know about it or make my figures in a way that wouldn't be impacted by it?

In some perverted (or idealistic) way, by getting pissed off about the condition of the industry data, we are arguing that we want to lose with more accurate data instead of having a better chance to win because we have figured out a way to get around it.
Class, would you mind enlightening us about how you make figures if the raw data is wrong? Of course without giving away the key to the mint. Or maybe you're timing from your own videotapes as well.
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Old 10-13-2017, 10:41 AM   #70
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I'll be discussing this on Steve Byk's show around 10:30 CT today.
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Old 10-13-2017, 05:58 PM   #71
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Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
Bad data gives the smartest players an opening to find an edge. It's a simple reality that conflicts with our more idealistic visions for the sport.
In the short run, in any gambling market (including, by the way, the stock market), winning players are served by information asymmetries they can take advantage of.

In the long run, winning players are served by the perception that the market is not being gamed by people with inside information, because the perception of such gaming discourages losing players to play.

This is the fundamental contradiction at the heart of all gambling markets.
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Old 10-13-2017, 07:27 PM   #72
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In the short run, in any gambling market (including, by the way, the stock market), winning players are served by information asymmetries they can take advantage of.

In the long run, winning players are served by the perception that the market is not being gamed by people with inside information, because the perception of such gaming discourages losing players to play.

This is the fundamental contradiction at the heart of all gambling markets.
All true.

Also...an "information asymmetry" isn't the same as an exploitative situation brought about by management incompetence. Because incompetence knows no bounds...even if I can exploit the erroneous timing of these races...I must live with the uneasy feeling that I too could, in turn, be exploited by someone else...in some other way.
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Old 10-13-2017, 08:32 PM   #73
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I'll be discussing this on Steve Byk's show around 10:30 CT today.
c j, Do you have a link to these shows? I had an apt. at that time. Thx
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Old 10-13-2017, 09:36 PM   #74
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stevebyk.com

http://stevebyk.com/broadcast/hour-3...aig-milkowski/
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Old 10-13-2017, 10:02 PM   #75
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Ya'll may or may not realize that the Ragozin's and I assume Thorograph , have hand timed (for better or worse) for 40 years . Not sure they do it for every track, but certainly the majors.

Nothing new in smart players taking advantage of inept race timing.

Not sure exactly how much of an edge it is , especially small errors. but always nice to have accurate data, if only for principles sake.
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