against the fave or down on the fave_____?

[Half Smoke]

___________


what is your opinion_________?

of course, there are going to be exceptions for everybody - a capper who likes to go against the fave might get down on one going off at 3/1

I would guess most have an opinion one way or another

everybody knows the fave loses less than others when considering all of them in the long run

but is that enough to swing you into looking at strong faves______?

an obvious disadvantage in betting on faves is that so many get bet down very, very late that when you bet you didn't even know the odds

for me, I try to find a vulnerable fave and bet against him - looking to win a high % of my bets at short prices is not going to work for me

what works for you________?



.

[formula_2002]

my data of a recent 100 races, indicate that the final odds on the favorite produce a profit of about 2%

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by formula_2002

my data of a recent 100 races, indicate that the final odds on the favorite produce a profit of about 2%

keep up the good work

[Half Smoke]

Originally Posted by formula_2002

my data of a recent 100 races, indicate that the final odds on the favorite produce a profit of about 2%

so what? - your 100 races mean nothing at all - way too few to have any meaning


you don't seriously believe you can simply bet on the fave in every race

and have a positive expectation__________do you_______????



.

[formula_2002]

Originally Posted by Half Smoke

so what? - your 100 races mean nothing at all - way too few to have any meaning


you don't seriously believe you can simply bet on the fave in every race

and have a positive expectation__________do you_______????



.

well if you have a system that bets on the favorites, and you start with something like my 100 recent races you may believe you have a winning method of play and you will be in for a lot of trouble.
that is why you must compare your results to the expected results
a/e.

[davew]

for me, it depends on the favorite, their odds, the race, the competition and my feeling on the race.


sometimes I bet for and sometimes I bet against favorite



if I think the 3 best should be near 2,3,4/1 and at post they are 1/2, 5, 6/1 - I am not betting on favorite

[formula_2002]

I have not applied all the fav $1 returns I have to the referenced 121 races, however based of the 52 $1 returns I have recorded, I'll surmise this

in 121 races: actual wins =52/ 45 fair value expected wins = 1.15.
thats a 15% profit by placing a flat bet on my favorite, which generally is the same as the public's pick.

I'm sure we all understand this does not predict future results, but my point is, if you think you have a successful favorite betting system in these 121 races, be mindful of the profit without any handicapping
__________________

[Tom]

Did you actually bet the 121 races?

[formula_2002]

Originally Posted by Tom

Did you actually bet the 121 races?

nope. But If I can be successful over say 500 races, "chances" are good I'll play a few.
At this point in my life, it's more important to me to PROVE a method of play with a demonstration of all statistical data, something like the presentation made in Burton Fabricand's book Horse Sense..

[Tom]

My philosophy is is you prove it with a pocket full of cash.

[formula_2002]

Originally Posted by Tom

My philosophy is is you prove it with a pocket full of cash.

I recall asking a guy on prodigy "how do you know you are truly winning " he replyed "I count the ben Franklin's ".
I answer to a higher analysis

[Tom]

Like Bob Baffert does?

You haven't won until you spend it it somewhere else.

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by formula_2002

I recall asking a guy on prodigy "how do you know you are truly winning " he replyed "I count the ben Franklin's ".
I answer to a higher analysis

But doing it on paper with old data is not a "higher analysis". When you're actually wagering you have to deal with a lot more factors than some hypothetical study. You have to be able to make the right bets in real life for it to mean anything.

[Half Smoke]

Originally Posted by formula_2002

I have not applied all the fav $1 returns I have to the referenced 121 races, however based of the 52 $1 returns I have recorded, I'll surmise this

in 121 races: actual wins =52/ 45 fair value expected wins = 1.15.
thats a 15% profit by placing a flat bet on my favorite, which generally is the same as the public's pick.

I'm sure we all understand this does not predict future results, but my point is, if you think you have a successful favorite betting system in these 121 races, be mindful of the profit without any handicapping
__________________

first of all, I don't know what "52/45 fair value expected wins means"

I seriously doubt that anyone else knows what it means

I don't know why your so fond of obstruse language

but if you're saying that your fave which is generally the same as the public's pick won 52 out of 121 races that's 43% - way over the commonly quoted figure of 33% winning faves

so, since it cannot be accounted for by your having scoped out a real fave, that is different than the public's fave, it is so far out from typical, that again, it would seem to me to be meaningless - a statistical outlier


.

[formula_2002]

Originally Posted by Half Smoke

first of all, I don't know what "52/45 fair value expected wins means"

I seriously doubt that anyone else knows what it means

I don't know why your so fond of obstruse language

but if you're saying that your fave which is generally the same as the public's pick won 52 out of 121 races that's 43% - way over the commonly quoted figure of 33% winning faves

so, since it cannot be accounted for by your having scoped out a real fave, that is different than the public's fave, it is so far out from typical, that again, it would seem to me to be meaningless - a statistical outlier


.

I posted
actual wins =52/ 45 fair value expected wins

thats a/e

The commonly quoted 33% is a matter of convivence.
You need to make a determination based on the smallest incremental odds possible.